The $3 Trillion AI IPO Wave: Anthropic and OpenAI File Confidentially as Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Futures
The path to public markets for the world's leading artificial intelligence startups is accelerating, with both Anthropic and OpenAI filing confidentially for their initial public offerings.1 As anticipation builds, a parallel financial market has emerged, allowing global traders to speculate on these companies' private valuations before they officially list on public exchanges.
Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Perpetual Futures
On June 22, 2026, Coinbase Global Inc. officially opened trading for ANTHROPIC-PERP and OPENAI-PERP pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts on its Coinbase International Exchange (operating via Coinbase Bermuda Ltd.). These contracts allow eligible non-U.S. traders to gain synthetic, leveraged exposure to the estimated private valuations of the two AI giants.2
The contracts are settled entirely in USDC and feature a unique conversion mechanism:
"If Anthropic or OpenAI completes an IPO, the contract does not expire or force you to close out. It automatically converts into a standard stock perpetual future tracking the now-public share price, with positions rebased to the official share count. No rollover, no reopening, continuous exposure from private to public." — How Coinbase’s OpenAI & Anthropic Pre-IPO Futures Work
To bypass the lack of a public share price and unknown share counts, Coinbase handles the index pricing by dividing the private company's estimated total equity valuation by one billion (e.g., a $1.765 trillion valuation tracks at an index level of 1,765). This follows the successful precedent established with SpaceX pre-IPO contracts, which rebased on June 11, 2026, and converted into standard equity perpetuals on June 12, 2026, following its public listing.
Tom Lee Warns of a "Mega-IPO Liquidity Drain"
While these pre-IPO derivatives see high speculative interest, Wall Street bull Tom Lee (Fundstrat) has sounded a stark warning on Anthony Pompliano's podcast. Lee identified upcoming mega-IPOs and subsequent lockup expirations as a critical catalyst that could trigger a severe pullback in the broader AI and semiconductor market.
According to Lee, the sheer scale of the upcoming public listings will act as a massive siphon on market liquidity:
"Massive equity unlocks from Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), coupled with the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, will absorb billions in capital.3" — Tom Lee Identifies 4 Catalysts That Could End The Historic AI Semiconductor Rally
Lee cautions that this "Mega-IPO Liquidity Drain" will starve the parabolic AI chip rally of the speculative "firepower" that has kept it afloat, potentially triggering an abrupt market correction later in 2026. This warning comes on the heels of SpaceX's blockbuster public debut and its subsequent acquisition of Cursor parent Anysphere (see SpaceXAI and Cursor Launch First Joint Model Built on Colossus and User Code).
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An instance of Frontier compute rentals require massive public listings to pay off hardware landlords. — The extreme capital needs of training and compute are driving the top AI labs into confidential filings for massive public stock debuts. ↩︎
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An instance of Speculative pre-IPO perpetual assets allow public markets to price a unicorn before it lists. — Global trading platforms bypass standard IPO boundaries by offering synthetic, continuous futures tracking estimated private valuations. ↩︎
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An instance of Pre-IPO equity of tech unicorns drains talent from public giants far faster than cash compensation. — The immense scale of the upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is siphoning capital and generating massive pre-IPO speculative interest. ↩︎