U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 21, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.15%
2026-10-19 · 5.09% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
336.298
2026-09-01 · 334.131 prior
The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.15% as of October 19, sitting well above the fed funds rate of 3.75% as of September 1. Unemployment held at 4.2% in the latest reading. The CPI index registered 336.298 for September, with no year-over-year rate provided in the data. The gap between the policy rate and long-end yields suggests markets are pricing a materially higher rate environment than current Fed positioning.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.15% | 5.09% | 2026-10-19 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 336.298 | 334.131 | 2026-09-01 |