U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 20, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.09%
2026-10-16 · 5.1% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
336.298
2026-09-01 · 334.131 prior
The Fed funds rate stands at 3.75 as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.09 as of mid-October, leaving a wide gap between short- and long-term rates. Unemployment sits at 4.2 as of September. The CPI index registered 336.298 for the same month, providing the current price-level baseline. The divergence between the policy rate and the 10-year yield is the most notable feature of the current rate environment.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.09% | 5.1% | 2026-10-16 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 336.298 | 334.131 | 2026-09-01 |