U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 14, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.24%
2026-10-09 · 5.22% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The U.S. macro backdrop shows a notable gap between short- and long-term rates: the fed funds rate stood at 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on October 9, 2026. Labor market conditions remain comparatively stable, with unemployment at 4.2% in September. On prices, the CPI index registered 334.131 as of August 2026. The elevated long-end yield relative to the policy rate is the most distinctive feature of the current rate environment.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.24% | 5.22% | 2026-10-09 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |