U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 19, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.1%
2026-10-15 · 5.19% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
336.298
2026-09-01 · 334.131 prior
The U.S. macro backdrop pairs an easing policy rate with elevated long-term yields: the fed funds rate stood at 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.1% by mid-October, leaving long rates well above the policy rate. Labor market conditions remain comparatively firm, with unemployment at 4.2% as of September. The CPI index registered 336.298 for September, though no year-over-year inflation rate can be derived from the single index reading provided. The wide gap between the 10-year yield and the fed funds rate is the most notable feature of the current rate structure.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.1% | 5.19% | 2026-10-15 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 336.298 | 334.131 | 2026-09-01 |