U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Sep 21, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.63%
2026-08-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
4.94%
2026-09-17 · 5.01% prior
Unemployment
4.1%
2026-08-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The U.S. macro backdrop remains characterized by a 3.63% fed funds rate as of August 2026, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.94% as of mid-September, leaving the long end of the curve well above the policy rate. Unemployment stood at 4.1% in August, while the CPI index registered 334.131 for the same month. The gap between the policy rate and the 10-year yield suggests markets are pricing in a higher long-run rate environment than current policy implies.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.63% | 3.63% | 2026-08-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.94% | 5.01% | 2026-09-17 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |