U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 13, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.22%
2026-10-08 · 5.28% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The Fed funds rate stood at 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.22% on October 8 — a spread of roughly 147 basis points above the policy rate, leaving the curve steeply inverted in real terms relative to short rates. Unemployment held at 4.2% in September. The CPI index registered 334.131 as of August, with no year-over-year inflation rate available from the provided data. The gap between the policy rate and long-end yields suggests markets are pricing in higher long-term rates than current Fed positioning implies.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.22% | 5.28% | 2026-10-08 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |