U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 11, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.22%
2026-10-08 · 5.28% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The Fed funds rate stands at 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.22% as of October 8, a level well above the policy rate. Unemployment sits at 4.2% as of September. The CPI index registered 334.131 in August. The gap between the policy rate and long-end yields suggests markets are pricing in a higher rate environment than current Fed positioning implies.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.22% | 5.28% | 2026-10-08 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |