U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Sep 18, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.63%
2026-08-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.01%
2026-09-16 · 5% prior
Unemployment
4.1%
2026-08-01 · 4.1% prior
The U.S. macro backdrop remains restrictive, with the fed funds rate at 3.63% as of August 2026 and the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.01% as of mid-September, leaving long-term borrowing costs elevated relative to the policy rate. Labor market conditions show unemployment at 4.1% as of August, modestly above levels typically associated with full employment. The steep gap between the policy rate and the 10-year yield suggests markets are pricing in higher long-term rates or term premium rather than near-term easing.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.63% | 3.63% | 2026-08-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.01% | 5% | 2026-09-16 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 |