U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 8, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.27%
2026-10-06 · 5.31% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The U.S. macro backdrop shows a fed funds rate of 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.27% in early October, a spread that implies a notably steep yield curve. Labor market conditions remain relatively stable, with unemployment at 4.2% in September. The CPI index registered 334.131 as of August 2026, though no year-over-year inflation rate can be derived from the single index reading provided. The gap between the policy rate and long-term yields suggests markets are pricing in a materially higher rate environment over the coming decade.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.27% | 5.31% | 2026-10-06 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |