U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 4, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.24%
2026-10-01 · 5.29% prior
Unemployment
4.2%
2026-09-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The U.S. macro backdrop as of early October 2026 pairs a 3.75% fed funds rate (September reading) with a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24%, leaving long rates well above the policy rate. The labor market shows a 4.2% unemployment rate for September. The CPI index stood at 334.131 as of August, the latest available reading. The wide gap between the 10-year yield and the fed funds rate is the most notable feature of the current rate structure.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.24% | 5.29% | 2026-10-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |