U.S. macro backdrop
MACRO BACKDROP · MARKET VIEW
Market view · as of Oct 2, 2026
Fed funds rate
3.75%
2026-09-01 · 3.63% prior
10-yr Treasury
5.29%
2026-09-30 · 5.26% prior
Unemployment
4.1%
2026-08-01 · 4.1% prior
CPI (index)
334.131
2026-08-01 · 332.813 prior
The Fed funds rate stood at 3.75% as of September 2026, while the 10-year Treasury yield ended the month at 5.29%, leaving long-term rates well above the policy rate. Unemployment was 4.1% as of August 2026. The CPI index registered 334.131 in August 2026, though no year-over-year inflation rate can be derived from the single observation provided. The wide gap between the 10-year yield and the fed funds rate is the most notable feature of the current rate structure.
Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds rate | 3.75% | 3.63% | 2026-09-01 |
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.29% | 5.26% | 2026-09-30 |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 |
| CPI (index) | 334.131 | 332.813 | 2026-08-01 |