There is no reshoring equity premium — the AI customer's cash conversion is all that re-rates.
CHIPS awards, government equity stakes, and even customer-prepaid capacity leave the builders roughly 45% below their highs while capex consumes their free cash flow; the only re-ratings go to names converting AI demand into margin today or optioning a credible future AI customer.
The same conclusion keeps arriving from across the workspace's research — 1 topics independently instantiate this theme. Filter the evidence by where it came from:
A $1.5B CHIPS award, a government equity stake, and four straight beats still left GF 45% below its high because the equity tracks AI-optics order flow, not domestic capacity or subsidy.
Valuation keys to converting AI demand — record margins for TSMC or a credible future-customer option for Intel — while the subsidized, revenue-free domestic megafab itself prices at zero.
Even fully contracted, NVIDIA-prepaid reshoring capex earns a deep equity discount because capex consumes the free cash flow and the margin payoff is deferred to 2028–29.