Reshoring capital follows the paying customer, not the subsidy.
Tariff deadlines and multibillion-dollar pledges dominate headlines, but EV battery joint ventures dissolve, pharma's $480B in commitments produces no equipment orders, and Intel's $28B Ohio megafab sits revenue-free — announced capacity converts to physical capex only where a paying customer underwrites it.
The same conclusion keeps arriving from across the workspace's research — 1 topics independently instantiate this theme. Filter the evidence by where it came from:
The Indiana plant landed as back-end packaging only and core expansion stays in Korea because reshoring proceeds just where a cloud customer's multi-year volume guarantee buys down the US cost premium.
The tariff ladder is producing pledges and groundbreakings on schedule, but the capacity has no demand assigned until the 2030s and the biggest movers build against exemptions already secured — headlines, not yet a paying customer.
With the $7,500 EV credit gone there is no paying customer, so the largest DOE-backed battery capacity in history dissolves and gets repurposed while AI/semiconductor capacity expands the same quarter.
Phase 2 exists only because NVIDIA's prepayment and sold-out cleanroom commitments underwrite the $12B build — the purest case of announced reshoring capacity converting exactly where a paying customer pays.
GF's $1.5B CHIPS award and government equity stake produce neither the growth nor the stock premium — AI-optics customers like Marvell are what convert and monetize its US capacity, while the marginal expansion dollar goes to Singapore.