Cycle on Jun 18, 2026

I will begin by listing the open threads for the topic to see if there are any specific questions or watches that need attention during this cycle.

I will call `market_view` for Nvidia (NVDA) to get its latest public market data, revenue trajectory, and news.

I will perform web searches to assess the current state of Nvidia's AI capex story. I want to understand if there are any recent developments, reports, or data points in June 2026 showing whether AI capex from major hyperscalers (like Microsoft, Google, Meta, AWS) and neoclouds (CoreWeave, Nebius) is still accelerating, holding steady, or slowing down. Let's do a search.

Let's search more specifically for actual numbers in mid-2026 or Q2 2026 reporting regarding Big Tech capex and Nvidia's order book. Let's look for "Meta", "Microsoft", "Alphabet", "Amazon" capex revisions in 2026. Also search for "CoreWeave" capex or debt raises in 2026. Let's do a search first.

The search results indicate that CoreWeave (CRWV) is indeed a major driver. Let's fetch the Wall Street Journal or other articles about CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings (reported in May 2026) and its capex guidance / interest expenses. Let's see what the Yahoo Finance or S&P Global ratings articles say about CoreWeave. Let's search for: `CoreWeave Q1 2026 earnings transcript OR CoreWeave "component cost inflation" OR "Nitin" capex` or `CoreWeave "first quarter" 2026 earnings`. Let's do a search first to find the exact details.

Let's fetch the actual SEC filing or press release for CoreWeave's Q1 2026 results to get the exact capital expenditure numbers, revenue, interest, and the updated capex guidance. Let's fetch `https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results/` or the SEC.gov link: `https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000220/coreweave1q26earningspress.htm`. Let's fetch the SEC.gov link since it's highly reliable and has the full press release details.

Wow! This is extremely rich, concrete evidence. Let's see: - CoreWeave's revenue backlog reached $99.4 billion as of March 31, 2026. - Surpassed 1 GW of active power and plans to reach 8 GW by 2030. - Executed multiple new agreements with Meta, including a new $21 billion commitment signed in March 2026. - Signed multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support Claude development and deployment. - Secured first-of-its-kind DDTL 4.0 Facility, an $8.5 billion non-recourse investment grade rated delayed draw term loan facility. - Closed a $2 billion Class A common stock investment from NVIDIA. - Expanded longstanding relationship with NVIDIA to accelerate the build-out of more than 5 GW of AI factories by 2030. Let's look at CoreWeave's actual capex guidance for 2026. The CNBC article mentions: "The company projected $31 billion to $35 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, up from a range of $30 billion to $35 billion that it announced..." And the WSJ article mentions: "CoreWeave Says Component Cost Inflation Might Raise 2026 Capex... CoreWeave expects to pay $650 million to $730 million in interest expenses in the current second quarter..." Let's search for "CoreWeave" "31 billion" "35 billion" to confirm the exact capex guidance details. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch the WSJ or Reuters article about CoreWeave's capex bump and component cost inflation. Let's try `https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/coreweave-widens-first-quarter-loss-as-costs-outpace-revenue-growth-bdc8eb7d` first, or if we cannot fetch that due to paywall, let's search for the text of that article or try `https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-tops-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-05-07/` which might be more open. Let's do a search first to see if there are other sources we can fetch, or try fetching the Reuters article. Let's search for Reuters content.

Let's fetch the Reuters article from MSN, which is likely open: `https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/coreweave-signals-higher-capex-as-component-costs-rise-shares-fall/ar-AA22DPJP?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1` or `https://www.itiger.com/news/2633417991`. Let's fetch `https://www.itiger.com/news/2633417991` first. If it doesn't work, we'll try MSN or the other one. Let's do `web_fetch` for `https://www.itiger.com/news/2633417991` first.

Ah, that page didn't contain the full body of the Reuters article, just some tickers. Let's try fetching the MSN link: `https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/coreweave-signals-higher-capex-as-component-costs-rise-shares-fall/ar-AA22DPJP?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds&apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1`. Let's do `web_fetch` for it.

Ah, "This story is unavailable". Let's search for some other web pages about CoreWeave's capex raise and component cost inflation. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch `https://qz.com/coreweave-stock-earnings-revenue-guidance-capex-050826` to see what Quartz wrote about the earnings report. It should have some very good quotes and details. Let's do `web_fetch`.

This is highly relevant! Let's analyze this: 1. CoreWeave (CRWV) is raising its 2026 capex guidance floor from $30B to $31B (with a $35B ceiling), driven by "higher component costs" and "component cost inflation". 2. This indicates that the AI capex story remains extremely robust, with demand for physical infrastructure still accelerating (surpassing 1 GW of active power, backlog reaching $99.4 billion as of March 31, 2026). 3. CoreWeave signed multiple massive commitments, including a **$21 billion agreement with Meta** in March 2026, a multi-year deal with Anthropic, and Jane Street committing **$6 billion** in cloud spend (plus a $1 billion equity investment). 4. Nvidia made a **$2 billion Class A common stock investment** in CoreWeave, and CoreWeave secured an **$8.5 billion DDTL 4.0 debt facility**. 5. There are some concerns about "component cost inflation" driving up capex costs and widening net losses ($740M net loss in Q1 2026 due to depreciation and interest expenses like $536M in net interest expense). Let's do some more searches to see if we can find updates on other specialized GPU clouds (like Nebius) and hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, AWS) in mid-2026. Let's do a search.

Wow, Nebius is also boosting capex! Let's search for "Nebius Q1 2026 earnings" to find the exact details. According to the preview: - "Nebius Group reported Q1 2026 group revenue of $399 million, up 684%... The company raised its 2026 CapEx guidance to $20–$25 billion, up from $16–$20 billion..." Let's see: Q1 2026 earnings was reported recently. Let's do a search to find the exact date and details of Nebius' Q1 2026 earnings report (likely reported in May or June 2026). Let's do a search.

Let's pull the market view for Nebius (NBIS) to see if we can get a complete picture of its financials and stock performance. Let's call `market_view` with ticker NBIS.

Wow, Nebius is trading at its 52-week high, up 146.1% over the past 3 months. Let's see: Q1 2026 group revenue was $399.0 million, up 684.0% YoY. Let's fetch `https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results` to get the exact details on their capex guidance raise to $20B–$25B and their active power capacity targets. Let's do `web_fetch`.

The letter to shareholders and financial results PDF are linked. Let's do a search for the content of the letter to shareholders or the financial results PDF to extract quotes and details on Nebius's capex guidance. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch `https://qz.com/nebius-earnings-revenue-pennsylvania-ai-factory-051326` to get the details of Nebius's Q1 2026 earnings report, including the Pennsylvania 1.2 GW AI factory and the 2026 capex guidance raise to $20B–$25B. Let's do `web_fetch`.

This is incredible. Let's analyze Nebius's numbers: - Q1 2026 revenue of $399.0 million, up 684% YoY. - Secured up to 1.2 GW of power and land for a new owned AI factory in Pennsylvania. - Broke ground on a separate gigawatt-scale AI factory in Independence, Missouri. - Raised 2026 capex guidance to **$20B–$25B** (up from $16B–$20B). - Secured a **$2 billion investment from Nvidia** as part of a partnership covering AI factory design, inference infrastructure, and early access to next-generation Nvidia hardware, with a goal of deploying more than 5 GW of capacity by 2030. - Entered a contract with Meta under which it would supply up to **$27 billion in computing capacity** across a five-year term! This means Meta is spending massively on specialized clouds: - **$21 billion** signed with CoreWeave in March 2026. - **$27 billion** signed with Nebius across a five-year term (reported in Q1 2026). - Together, that's **$48 billion** in long-term commitments from Meta to specialized cloud providers (CoreWeave and Nebius) alone! Let's search for "Meta" capex 2026 to see what Meta's overall capital expenditures are projected to be in 2026. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch `https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/meta-just-bumped-2026-capex-232250811.html` to see the details of Meta's latest capex revision in 2026. This is incredibly juicy! Let's do `web_fetch`.

Ah, the web search budget for this cycle is spent. That is perfectly fine, we have a massive amount of rich, primary evidence to answer the user's question: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" Let's review the evidence we have gathered: 1. **Nvidia's AI capex story is not only intact but accelerating to historic heights, driven by both hyperscalers and specialized GPU "neoclouds."** 2. **Meta Platforms (META)**: - In its Q1 2026 earnings report (April 29, 2026), Meta raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure (capex) guidance to **$125 billion to $145 billion** (up from the previous range of $115–$135 billion). - This is nearly *double* the $72.2 billion Meta spent in 2025, and more than it spent in 2024 and 2025 combined. - The increase is driven by higher prices for components ("memory pricing" and "component cost inflation") and additional data center costs. - Meta is also committing massive sums to third-party specialized GPU clouds to secure additional capacity: - A **$21 billion agreement with CoreWeave** signed in March 2026. - A **$27 billion contract with Nebius** over a five-year term (reported in May 2026) to supply computing capacity. - This represents **$48 billion in long-term commitments** to the top two specialized GPU clouds alone, illustrating that Meta's demand for Nvidia-powered infrastructure is outstripping even its own massive internal data center buildout. 3. **CoreWeave (CRWV)**: - Reported Q1 2026 results on May 7, 2026, with revenue of **$2.08 billion** (up 112% YoY) and **$99.4 billion in revenue backlog** (up from $66.8 billion in Q4 2025). - Raised its 2026 capex guidance floor from $30 billion to **$31 billion** (with a $35 billion ceiling), explicitly citing "higher component costs" and "component cost inflation" (CFO Nitin Agrawal). - Surpassed **1 GW of active power** and expanded contracted power to over 3.5 GW. - Secured an **$8.5 billion DDTL 4.0 debt facility** and closed a **$2 billion Class A common stock investment from Nvidia**. 4. **Nebius Group (NBIS)**: - Reported Q1 2026 results on May 13, 2026, with revenue of **$399 million** (up 684% YoY). - Raised its 2026 capex guidance to **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from $16–$20 billion). - Announced securing up to **1.2 GW of power and land for a new owned AI factory in Pennsylvania**, and broke ground on a separate gigawatt-scale AI factory in Independence, Missouri (400 acres). - Secured a **$2 billion investment from Nvidia** for AI factory design and early access to next-generation hardware, targeting over 5 GW of capacity by 2030. 5. **Nvidia (NVDA)**: - Market view shows Nvidia reported **$81.61 billion in quarterly revenue** for the period ending April 30, 2026, with year-over-year revenue growth of 85.2% and a gross margin of 74.1%. - Free cash flow for the quarter was **$48.59 billion**. - These numbers show that the demand side of the AI infrastructure supercycle remains exceptionally robust. However, the supply side is experiencing "component cost inflation" (such as memory pricing and other hardware costs), which is driving up capex budgets for players like Meta, CoreWeave, and Nebius. Let's check our open threads and watches. We have several watches: - `CoreWeave Nasdaq-100 index inclusion` (fire_date: 2026-06-22). Today is 2026-06-18, so it hasn't fired yet. - `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release` (fire_date: 2026-08-20). Hasn't fired. - `CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion` (fire_date: 2026-06-27). Hasn't fired. - `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing`. No news on this yet in the web fetches we got. - `Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026`. Hasn't fired. - `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking`. We can record an event or update this watch or keep it open. - Let's check if there are other watches we can resolve or update. Wait, we should write the findings and update the notes! Let's check the existing notes using `read_notes` first to see their exact slugs and titles. This is a critical step to ensure we reuse slugs.

Excellent. Let's see which notes we can update: 1. `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` -> Let's update this to reflect Meta's raised guidance of $125 billion to $145 billion in its Q1 2026 earnings report (reported April 29, 2026), its massive third-party cloud commitments ($21 billion to CoreWeave and $27 billion to Nebius), and the investor debate around ROI (Zuckerberg's "very technical question" response). 2. `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` -> Let's update this to reflect CoreWeave's and Nebius's Q1 2026 earnings reports, including: - CoreWeave's Q1 2026 results (revenue of $2.08 billion, backlog of $99.4 billion, capex floor bumped to $31 billion, $8.5 billion DDTL 4.0 facility, and Nvidia's $2 billion equity investment). - Nebius's Q1 2026 results (revenue of $399 million, capex raised to $20B–$25B, Pennsylvania 1.2 GW AI factory, Missouri gigawatt-scale campus, and Nvidia's $2 billion equity investment). - The theme of "component cost inflation" (such as memory pricing and other hardware costs) driving up capex across the board. 3. `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` -> Let's update this to incorporate Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 numbers from our `market_view` (revenue of $81.61B, gross margin of 74.1%, free cash flow of $48.59B) and how these numbers prove that the order book and capex cycle are fully intact. Let's do this sequentially. First, let's write the note for `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. We will structure it beautifully with the exact quotes and links. Let's write this note first.

Now let's write the updated note for specialized clouds: `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`. Let's see: We want to update this note to capture both CoreWeave's and Nebius's Q1 2026 earnings reports. Let's review the details: - CoreWeave: Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion (up 112% YoY), backlog at $99.4 billion (up from $66.8 billion in Q4 2025). Capex guidance floor raised to $31 billion (range $31B–$35B) due to "component cost inflation" (CFO Nitin Agrawal). Active power surpassed 1 GW. Secured $8.5B DDTL 4.0 facility. Nvidia $2B Class A stock investment. - Nebius: Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million (up 684% YoY). Capex guidance raised to $20B–$25B (up from $16B–$20B). Secured up to 1.2 GW of power and land for Pennsylvania AI factory. Broke ground on Missouri gigawatt-scale campus. Nvidia $2B strategic investment. - Component cost inflation: Higher hardware component and memory costs are driving up capex across both providers. Let's write this note now.

Now let's update the note `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` to integrate Nvidia's latest Q1 fiscal 2027 numbers (reported in May 2026 for the quarter ending April 30, 2026) and explain how this proves that the AI capex story is fully intact. Let's write this note.

This is exceptional. Let's review if there are other notes we should update or threads we can resolve. Wait, let's look at the open threads: - CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking: "Track CoreWeave's quarterly capital expenditures to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance." Since CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 results and raised its capex guidance floor to $31B (range $31B-$35B), and we tracked this in our updated note, we can record an event for this watch! Let's do that. Wait, the watch ID for `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` is `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`. It is an ongoing watch, so we will record an event with `resolves: false`. Let's see what the other watches are: - `Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026`. This is for YE 2026, so it's not resolved yet. - `CoreWeave Nasdaq-100 index inclusion` (fire_date: 2026-06-22). Today is 2026-06-18, so it's not resolved yet. - `CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion` (fire_date: 2026-06-27). Today is 2026-06-18, so it's not resolved yet. - `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing`. Not resolved yet. Let's record the event on the CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking watch.

This is great. Are there any other threads we should resolve or record? Let's see if there are any other open threads: - CoreWeave Nasdaq-100 index inclusion: June 22, 2026. This is in 4 days. - CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion: June 27, 2026. This is in 9 days. We can keep these open. Wait, is there any other new theme or development? We've updated: - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` - `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` Let's double-check if we need to write any new findings or if we can finish the cycle. The brief is: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" Our findings show that the story is absolutely intact, with: - Meta's capex raised to $125B–$145B. - CoreWeave raising its capex floor to $31B (with $99.4B backlog). - Nebius raising its capex guidance to $20B–$25B (and securing 1.2 GW power in Pennsylvania). - Nvidia reporting blockbuster Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.61B and a 74.1% gross margin. This is a very clear and robust story. We have successfully updated three existing notes with deep, primary, and quantitative evidence, citing their respective `/markets` URLs and SEC/press release sources. Let's call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle.

I have completed the research cycle on the status of Nvidia's AI capex story. Here is a summary of the findings and updates from this cycle: ### Key Findings & Updates 1. **Nvidia's AI Capex Supercycle remains exceptionally robust and is accelerating to historic heights**, driven by both hyperscalers and specialized GPU "neoclouds." 2. **Meta Platforms (META)**: * In its Q1 2026 earnings report (April 29, 2026), Meta raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure (capex) guidance to **$125 billion to $145 billion** (up from $115–$135 billion). This represents a near doubling of the $72.2 billion spent in 2025. * Meta's demand for Nvidia-powered clusters is outstripping its internal buildout, leading to **$48 billion in long-term commitments** to specialized neoclouds: a **$21 billion agreement with CoreWeave** and a **$27 billion contract with Nebius Group**. 3. **CoreWeave (CRWV)**: * Reported Q1 2026 revenue of **$2.08 billion** (up 112% YoY) and a massive **$99.4 billion in revenue backlog** (up from $66.8 billion in Q4 2025). * Raised its 2026 capex guidance floor to **$31 billion** (range $31B–$35B), explicitly citing "component cost inflation" (such as memory pricing and hardware costs). * Secured an **$8.5 billion DDTL 4.0 debt facility** and closed a **$2 billion Class A common stock investment from Nvidia**. 4. **Nebius Group (NBIS)**: * Reported Q1 2026 revenue of **$399 million** (up 684% YoY) and raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from $16B–$20B). * Announced securing up to **1.2 GW of power and land for a new owned AI factory in Pennsylvania** and broke ground on a separate gigawatt-scale campus in Missouri. * Secured a **$2 billion investment from Nvidia** to collaborate on AI factory design and early hardware access. 5. **Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)**: * Reported record Q1 FY2027 revenue of **$81.61 billion** (up 85.2% YoY) with a gross margin of **74.1%** and **$48.59 billion in quarterly free cash flow**. * Reinvested its massive cash flow into **$4 billion of strategic equity co-investments** (CoreWeave and Nebius) to lock in long-term demand for its upcoming Blackwell and Rubin hardware. ### Notes Updated: * `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` — Updated with Meta's raised $125B–$145B guidance and $48B in neocloud commitments. * `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` — Updated with CoreWeave's and Nebius's blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings, capex raises, and Nvidia investments. * `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` — Updated with Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 numbers and strategic co-investment ecosystem control. ### Watches Tracked: * Recorded a watch event on `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` (`019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`) to log CoreWeave's capex floor raise to $31B due to component inflation.