Cycle on Jun 28, 2026

I will start by listing the active threads and reading the existing notes on this topic to understand the current context and check for any open questions, watches, or prior findings we need to address or update.

I will read the existing notes on this topic to check the baseline of prior findings, their slugs, and content.

The user is asking: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" Let's search the web for any recent news or developments regarding Nvidia's AI capex story, cloud hyperscaler capex, and related indicators. I will also call `market_view` for Nvidia (NVDA) and perhaps other relevant companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG / GOOGL), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle (ORCL) if needed, to check their latest market data, capex, and trajectories. Let's run a search for recent news on "Nvidia capex", "Nvidia AI demand", "hyperscaler capex", and related topics. Let's do a general web search first. I will set `recent=true` to find any fresh news from the last week.

Let's look at the articles that discuss the AI capex cycle: 1. `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/` 2. `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1` (or `https://www.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200682817`) 3. `https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-ai-infrastructure-spending/` 4. `https://intellectia.ai/blog/ai-tech-stock-selloff-june-2026` 5. `https://stockstory.org/us/stocks/nasdaq/nvda/news/why-up-down/nvidia-nvda-stock-trades-down-here-is-why-6` Let's fetch `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/` to see what JPMorgan is saying about the $5.5 trillion AI capex explosion. Let's first also fetch `https://www.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200682817` (or the UK version). And let's call `market_view` for NVDA to get the latest public-markets view of Nvidia. Let's do that first to have the hard numbers.

Let's fetch those web URLs to see the details of the AI capex story. Specifically, let's fetch: 1. `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/` 2. `https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-ai-infrastructure-spending/` 3. `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1` Let's do a web fetch on `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/` first.

This is a very detailed piece on JPMorgan's midyear outlook regarding AI capex. Let's list some key figures: - Global AI-related capital expenditures are estimated to reach $5.5 trillion through 2030 (up from $5.1 trillion). - Debt financing tied to the AI build-out is estimated at $4.1 trillion. - Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to reach $650 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027. - Operating cash flow for these hyperscalers is projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027. - In 2026, JPMorgan anticipates $150 billion in U.S. hyperscaler issuance and another $100 billion equivalent abroad. Now let's fetch `https://cryptobriefing.com/goldman-sachs-ai-infrastructure-spending/` to see what Goldman Sachs analyst says.

Let's fetch `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1` to read about Nvidia's Micron-led bounce and how it tests confidence in the AI capex cycle. Let's do that now.

This is extremely rich and useful. Let's analyze the key details we have found: 1. **Nvidia's current market position and numbers**: - Market capitalization: $4.66 trillion (as of June 28, 2026, closed at $192.53, down 10% over the past month, roughly 18% below its all-time high of $236.54 set on May 14, 2026). - TTM Revenue: $253.49 billion (+85.2% YoY). - Q1 FY2027 (ended April 30, 2026): Revenue $81.61B (up 85% YoY), gross margin 74.1%, operating income $53.54B, operating cash flow $50.34B, capex $1.76B, FCF $48.59B. EPS of $1.87 beat $1.77 est. Data center revenue was $75B (up 92% YoY). - For FY2026, revenue was $215.94 billion (+65.47% YoY), net income $120.07 billion (+64.75% YoY), operating profit $130 billion. - Forward P/E is near 19.3x, trailing P/E is 29.48x or 30.6x. - Free cash flow for 2026 is forecast near $195.4 billion. 2. **Nvidia's Shareholder Meeting (held around June 24, 2026)**: - CEO Jensen Huang declared that AI has entered a "true profitability era" and characterized the current computing shift as the largest industry reset in 60 years. - He confirmed that the next-generation **Vera Rubin architecture** (successor to Blackwell) is moving into **full-scale production**. - He addressed the export controls and China gray market, stating US national security comes first and warned that smuggled AI chips are a "dead end". 3. **Wall Street / Hyperscaler Capex Outlook**: - **JPMorgan's Midyear Outlook (June 25, 2026)**: - Total global AI-related capex will reach **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from previous estimate of $5.1 trillion). - Debt financing tied to the AI buildout raised to $4.1 trillion. - Hyperscaler capex expected to reach **$650 billion in 2026** and exceed **$1.1 trillion in 2027**. - Hyperscaler operating cash flow projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027. - JPMorgan anticipates $150 billion in U.S. hyperscaler issuance and $100 billion equivalent abroad in 2026. - **Goldman Sachs' 1-Delta Desk (Rich Privorotsky)**: - Hyperscaler capital expenditures in 2026 projected between **$527 billion and $765 billion** (revised upward from low-end estimate of $465 billion to $527 billion, a 13%+ bump). - Cumulative AI infrastructure spending projected to reach **$7.6 trillion by 2031**. - Flagged that open-source models like Gemini 3 Flash and DeepSeek V4 Pro have slashed tokenization costs by as much as 75%, driving a massive surge in usage and compute demand. - **Micron's Q3 Fiscal 2026 Earnings blowout**: - Micron reported revenue of $41.46 billion and record gross margins of 84.9% (stealing the "margin king crown" from Nvidia's 74.1%). - Micron reported $100 billion in contracted memory revenue, highlighting the durability of the AI buildout and severe high-bandwidth memory (HBM) shortages. - This blowout ignited a broad semiconductor rally and stabilized the AI-spending narrative after a sharp selloff earlier in June. Let's search for "Micron Q3 2026 earnings" or "Micron earnings June 2026" to verify the exact numbers and date of Micron's earnings of late June 2026, just to make sure we represent it accurately. Let's do a quick web search.

Micron's Q3 fiscal 2026 results are indeed stunning: - Reported on Wednesday, June 24, 2026. - Revenue of $41.46 billion (up 346% YoY, vs $23.86 billion in Q2 and $9.30 billion in Q3 last year). - GAAP net income of $28.24 billion (diluted EPS $24.67). - GAAP gross margin came in at 84.9% (up from 74.9% in Q2). - Operating cash flow was $25.39 billion. - Guidance for Q4: Revenue of $50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion. - 2026 high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply is fully sold out through fixed-price contracts. - This blowout earnings report was a major catalyst that stabilized the AI sector and semiconductor indexes after a sharp selloff earlier in June. Let's also look at the other details. We have: - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (our prior finding slug). This note describes: "Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact Amid Blockbuster Micron Results and Vera Rubin Production Ramp". It was updated on June 27, 2026. Let's read this note's full text to see what is already in it, so we can refine and expand it properly. We can use `read_notes` which returned a preview, but to read the full body of a note, let's see. Is there a way to fetch the full note? Yes, we can fetch the note by reading it or writing to it. Wait, `read_notes` lists the slug, title, preview, updated_at, and source_count. Let's see if there is another tool to read the full note. No, wait, there isn't a direct `read_note` tool? Ah, the list of tools includes: `list_threads`, `record_thread`, `resolve_thread`, `record_watch`, `record_event`, `write_note`, `read_notes`, `finish_cycle`, `web_search`, `web_fetch`, `market_view`. Wait! Is there an existing note body we can get? The `read_notes` tool returns slug, title, preview, updated_at, and source_count. We don't have a direct "read_note_body" tool, but the preview shows: "Nvidia’s artificial intelligence infrastructure supercycle remains robust in late June 2026, supported by record-shattering earnings from its primary high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supplier and key…". Let's see if we can find more details or search the web for any other recent pieces. Wait! Let's check what other notes we have: - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`: "Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Oracle Discloses $55.7B Capex and 21K Job Cuts". - `custom-silicon-and-datacenter-hardware-competition`: "Custom Silicon and Data Center Hardware Competition Escalates to Challenge Nvidia's Moat". - `nvidia-vera-cpu-agentic-infrastructure-shift`: "Nvidia's Vera CPU and the Agentic Computing Infrastructure Shift". - `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`: "Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion and Scale Backlogs Amid Heavy Debt and Widening Losses". - `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks`: "Local and Federal Lawmakers Enact Data Center Moratoriums as Environmental and Power Bottlenecks Intensify". Let's check if we have any other interesting updates. Wait, let's perform a search for the other watches we have. For example, we have: - `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`: "NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill". Let's search if NY Governor Hochul has signed or vetoed the Responsible Data Center Development Act (A11560/S10642). Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch `https://lexingtoninstitute.org/gov-hochuls-data-center-moratorium-veto-deliberations/` to see if she has signed or vetoed yet. It seems she's still deliberating as of 3 days ago. Let's read the page.

Okay, the New York Governor Hochul action on the Data Center Moratorium Bill is still pending (she has "until the end of the year to decide on the veto" and is currently deliberating as of late June 2026). So that watch is still ongoing and has not fired yet. Let's do a search on CoreWeave's capex, Nebius Group, or Google Cloud capacity payments to see if there is any news on those. Let's search for "CoreWeave capex 2026" or "CoreWeave quarterly capex". Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch `https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/crwv-stock-slumps-on-coreweave-capex-projections-for-2026/cZTcmZKRITh` to get the details on CoreWeave's capex projections and financials. This will help us ground the neocloud capex story, which is highly relevant to Nvidia's AI capex story. Let's do that now.

Wait! This article is from March 2026. Let's see what is more recent for CoreWeave. Wait, let's look at the search results we got earlier. - CoreWeave joined the Nasdaq-100 Index effective on Monday, June 22, 2026. - Let's read the article: "CoreWeave Sinks 5%, Nebius Dips as AI Cloud Stocks Sell the News on Their Nasdaq-100 Debut" (June 22, 2026). - Let's do a search on CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings or recent financial updates, since we saw: "The AI cloud provider's Q1 2026 revenue surged 112% year-over-year to $2.1 billion, driven by contracts with OpenAI and Microsoft." - Let's search for "CoreWeave Q1 2026 earnings revenue" to get the exact details of CoreWeave's recent performance. Let's do a web search.

Let's do a fetch of `https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rosenblatt-initiates-coreweave-stock-coverage-with-buy-rating-93CH-4743347?ampMode=1` (or the US version) or `https://www.aol.com/finance/coreweave-just-added-32-billion-163429024.html` to see the details of CoreWeave's backlog and joining the Nasdaq-100. Let's fetch `https://www.aol.com/finance/coreweave-just-added-32-billion-163429024.html` first. This is fresh (from 1 day ago).

Let's analyze the CoreWeave data: - Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion grew 111.69% year-over-year (beat consensus of $1.97 billion by 5.80%). - Contracted revenue backlog of **$99.4 billion** as of March 31, 2026 (including a $21 billion Meta commitment signed in March, and $6 billion from Jane Street). This is up from $14.7 billion a year earlier. - Full-year 2026 CapEx guided to **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from previous guidance of $30B-$35B). - Q1 Free cash flow was negative $4.71 billion on $7.7 billion of CapEx. - Total liabilities hit $50.81 billion, and quarterly interest expense was $536 million (guided Q2 interest expense is $650M - $730M). - They joined the Nasdaq-100 Index on June 22, 2026. - This represents a massive demand backlog and capital deployment cycle that is highly supportive of Nvidia's AI capex story. Wait! Let's check Nebius Group's Q2 2026 earnings / margin trajectory or active power capacity watch: - `019edd49-1ccb-73d3-9fc0-80ae266f32c4`: "Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory" (expected around August 15, 2026). - `019eaeeb-7009-7e9b-9b2f-d6c2f4ec5339`: "Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026". Let's see if there is any recent news on Nebius Group (NBIS) or its Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Let's do a search on Nebius Group's Nasdaq-100 inclusion or recent news. Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch `https://eciks.org/10730-98031-nbis-nasdaq-100-inclusion-ai-infrastructure` to see if we can get the specific details of Nebius Group's Q1 growth or current numbers, which are highly relevant. Let's do that now.

This is incredible! Let's summarize the key facts for Nebius Group (NBIS): - Joined Nasdaq-100 on June 22, 2026. - Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million (up 684% YoY from $50.9 million). - Adjusted EPS of $2.11 (vs analyst expectations of a loss of $0.78, beat of 360%). - Nebius AI cloud revenue was $389.7 million (up 841% YoY). - Reiterated full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.0B to $3.4B, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~40%. - Target ARR of $7B to $9B by year-end 2026. - In March 2026, signed a 5-year deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion, including $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin compute infrastructure and $15 billion in committed capacity purchases from Meta. - In March 2026, NVIDIA invested $2 billion in Nebius as part of a strategic partnership. This is a massive confirmation of the strength of the "neocloud" segment (Nebius and CoreWeave both joining the Nasdaq-100, both having massive multi-billion-dollar backlogs and partnerships with Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA). Let's do a search on Meta's potential equity offering or other hyperscaler funding developments. Wait, let's search if there is any news on "Meta equity offering AI capex". Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch `https://eciks.org/10226-75982-alphabet-85-billion-equity-raise-ai-infrastructure` to see the details of Alphabet's $85 billion equity raise, which is incredible! Let's do that now. This is extremely fresh and relevant to the capex story and funding.

This is absolutely massive! Let's trace what we have: - Alphabet (GOOGL) raised **$85 billion** in equity (the largest equity capital transaction in corporate history) on June 3, 2026. - Included a **$10 billion** private placement from Berkshire Hathaway. - $40 billion to come through an "at-the-market" (ATM) program starting in Q3 2026. - Alphabet's 2026 capex guidance is a staggering **$180 billion to $190 billion** (up from prior forecasts)! - This is Alphabet's first equity raise in more than two decades, a huge strategic pivot from stock buybacks to equity dilution to fund AI infrastructure. Let's also look at the other hyperscalers' capex numbers from the articles: - Meta Platforms (META) raised its 2026 capital expenditure (Capex) guidance to **$125 billion to $145 billion** (up from previous guidance of $115B-$135B). - Microsoft's quarterly AI spending ballooned to **$37.5 billion** (recent quarter). Let's check Microsoft's full-year capex or recent numbers. Let's do a quick search on Microsoft's 2026 capex or recent quarter capex. Let's do a web search.

Let's review the Microsoft details: - Microsoft raised its full-year 2026 capital expenditure (capex) guidance to **$190 billion** (up from previous expectations, with CFO Amy Hood raising guidance by $5B post-Q1 earnings). - Out of this $190 billion, about $25 billion is due to component-pricing inflation (severe component shortages). - Microsoft's Q1 capex ballooned to **$37.5 billion** (up 66% YoY). - In a single quarter, Meta and Microsoft each committed roughly **$50 billion** in fresh data center lease obligations! - Microsoft's stock has hit a one-year low (down ~20%-33% from its peak) due to investor anxiety over this massive AI capex surge and OpenAI-related risks. Let's also search for Amazon's 2026 capex guidance to complete the "Big Four" hyperscaler capex picture. Let's do a web search.

This is an incredible, complete picture of the "Big Four" hyperscalers plus "neoclouds": - **Alphabet**: Completed an **$85 billion** equity raise on June 3, 2026. Raised 2026 capex guidance to **$180 billion to $190 billion** (up from prior forecasts), focused on AI compute infrastructure and data centers. - **Amazon (AWS)**: 2026 capex plan is guided to **$200 billion** (with the vast majority destined for AWS), up 50% year-over-year. AWS revenue reaccelerated to 28% YoY growth in Q1 2026 to $37.59 billion. - **Microsoft**: Raised full-year 2026 capex guidance to **$190 billion** (including $25 billion from component pricing inflation). Q1 capex was $37.5 billion (up 66% YoY). - **Meta**: Raised 2026 capex guidance to **$125 billion to $145 billion** (up from $115B-$135B). - **CoreWeave**: Q1 2026 revenue was $2.08B (up 111.7% YoY). Backlog is **$99.4 billion** as of March 31, 2026 (including a $21B Meta commitment). Guided 2026 capex is **$31 billion to $35 billion**. - **Nebius Group**: Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million (up 684% YoY). Secured a 5-year **$27 billion** deal with Meta (including $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin compute infrastructure and $15 billion in capacity purchases). Target ARR of $7B to $9B by year-end 2026. Let's sum up the combined 2026 capex guidance of the Big Four hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta): - Alphabet: $180B - $190B - Amazon: $200B - Microsoft: $190B - Meta: $125B - $145B - **Total Big Four 2026 Capex**: $180B + $200B + $190B + $125B = **$695 billion on the low end** to $190B + $200B + $190B + $145B = **$725 billion on the high end**! This perfectly aligns with Goldman Sachs' projection of hyperscaler capex of $527 billion to $765 billion in 2026, and JPMorgan's projection of $650 billion in 2026. This is absolutely jaw-dropping and completely answers the user's question: **Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?** Yes, it is not only intact, but it has scaled to historic, unprecedented levels, with the Big Four alone guiding to a combined **$695B to $725B** in capital expenditures for 2026, and the neoclouds adding another $30B+ each. Let's check if there are any other specific threads or watches we can resolve or record events for. Let's review the listed threads: - `019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e`: "Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027" (ongoing). - `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`: "NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill" (one_shot). Still deliberating. - `019eecbc-83f2-7338-8da9-83c6a4f4bd83`: "Google Cloud $920M/month CoreWeave capacity payments commence" (ongoing, starts Oct 2026). - `019ee796-b599-775e-b0db-e799779d71a4`: "Anthropic public S-1 filing and IPO debut" (one_shot, expected Nov 2026). - `019edd49-1ccb-73d3-9fc0-80ae266f32c4`: "Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory" (one_shot, expected Aug 2026). - `019ed2f6-f136-7051-a5b0-fa3b26ec02e0`: "Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release" (one_shot, expected Aug 2026). - `019eb93f-9403-7dea-9c9e-9ac0765dd674`: "Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing" (one_shot). Let's see if Meta has announced any equity raise. No, they haven't yet, but they raised capex. Wait! Did Alphabet announce and complete theirs? Yes, Alphabet completed an $85B stock offering on June 3, 2026. - `019eaeeb-7009-7e9b-9b2f-d6c2f4ec5339`: "Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026" (one_shot). - `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`: "CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking" (ongoing). We can record an event for this ongoing watch or keep it open. Let's see if we can record an event for CoreWeave's capex tracking: CoreWeave's Q1 capex was $7.7 billion, and they guided full-year 2026 capex to $31 billion - $35 billion (up from $30B-$35B). This is a great event to record! Let's record an event on `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`. Wait, let's look at the thread `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f` description: "Track CoreWeave's quarterly capex to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance." Since it's an ongoing watch, we can record an event and keep it open. Let's do that! Wait, let's look at the other watches. Are there any other watches we can resolve or record events for? Let's check if there is any new watch we should record. Yes! We can record a watch for Alphabet's $40B ATM program beginning in Q3 2026. Let's record that as a watch. Let's write a note that updates the existing slug `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` or `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. Wait, the existing slug `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` is titled "Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact Amid Blockbuster Micron Results and Vera Rubin Production Ramp". It was updated on June 27, 2026. The existing slug `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` is titled "Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Oracle Discloses $55.7B Capex and 21K Job Cuts". Wait! Should we update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` or `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`? Let's write a note updating `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` to reflect the latest numbers from Alphabet's $85B equity raise, Microsoft's $190B capex, Amazon's $200B capex, Meta's $125B-$145B capex, and the neoclouds (CoreWeave and Nebius Group) joining the Nasdaq-100 with massive backlogs (CoreWeave's $99.4B backlog, Nebius's $27B Meta deal). This directly answers the user's question about Nvidia's AI capex story. Wait! Let's also check if we should update `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` since CoreWeave and Nebius Group just joined the Nasdaq-100 in late June 2026. Let's write two notes: 1. Update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` with the definitive, comprehensive view of the hyperscaler capex boom (Big Four combined $695B - $725B capex in 2026) and how it keeps Nvidia's growth story firmly intact. 2. Update `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` with the historic Nasdaq-100 inclusion of CoreWeave and Nebius Group on June 22, 2026, their massive Q1 results, and their multi-billion dollar backlogs (CoreWeave's $99.4B, Nebius's $27B Meta deal). Wait, let's verify if we need to update `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` instead of `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. Let's look at the previews of both again: - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`: "Nvidia’s artificial intelligence infrastructure supercycle remains robust in late June 2026, supported by record-shattering earnings from its primary high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supplier and key…" - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`: "The capital expenditure boom supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure is reaching unprecedented heights in late June 2026, but the financial stress on hyperscalers is becoming increasingly…" Wait, both are highly relevant. Let's update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` to focus on Nvidia's demand, results, and the overall capex story. Let's update `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` with the specific details of the Big Four capex guidance numbers (Alphabet $180B-$190B, Amazon $200B, Microsoft $190B, Meta $125B-$145B) and Alphabet's historic $85B equity raise. Let's update `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` with CoreWeave and Nebius Group's Nasdaq-100 inclusion and their massive backlogs. Wait, this is an excellent, systematic way to distribute the findings! Let's write these notes. Let's first record the event on CoreWeave's quarterly capex tracking. Let's do that.

Now let's write the note updating `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. Wait, let's carefully construct the note. It must carry: - Name and link of the actual source(s). - 1-2 representative verbatim quotes with their links. - Interpretation. - Wikilinks to other notes where appropriate. - It must NOT use YAML frontmatter. The title is the first `# ` heading. Let's read the exact wording of the quotes from the sources we fetched. From `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1`: - Quote 1: "CEO Jensen Huang used the company’s shareholder meeting to declare that AI has entered a true profitability era and confirmed the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture is moving into full-scale production, reframing the stock’s narrative just as the AI trade needed reassurance." - Quote 2: "Nvidia’s 2026 free cash flow is forecast near $195.4 billion, of which roughly $97 billion could be available for shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends." From `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/`: - Quote 3: "JPMorgan expects their capital expenditures to reach $650 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027. Profitability remains intact, with operating cash flow projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027." Let's write the note for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. We will update it. Wait! Let's double check if we need to include a link to the `/markets/NVDA/2026/06/28` URL since we called `market_view`. Yes, we must cite the view's `/markets` URL. Let's do that.

Now let's write the note updating `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. This note is titled: "Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Oracle Discloses $55.7B Capex and 21K Job Cuts". Wait! Let's update it to reflect the updated combined Big Four capex guidance of $695B–$725B in 2026, Alphabet's historic $85B equity raise, Amazon's $200B capex plan, Microsoft's $190B capex plan, and Meta's $125B–$145B capex plan. Let's review the quotes we have from the Alphabet and JPMorgan articles: From `https://eciks.org/10226-75982-alphabet-85-billion-equity-raise-ai-infrastructure`: - Quote 1: "Alphabet completed an $85 billion equity raise on June 3, 2026, marking the largest equity capital transaction in corporate history as the company accelerates its AI infrastructure expansion to meet unprecedented customer demand." - Quote 2: "Alphabet’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance stands at $180 billion to $190 billion, a significant increase from prior forecasts, driven almost entirely by the need to build out AI compute infrastructure and data centers." From `https://fortune.com/2026/06/25/what-bubble-jpmorgan-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-profitable-for-now/`: - Quote 3: "JPMorgan now estimates total global AI-related capital expenditures will reach $5.5 trillion through 2030, up from $5.1 trillion." - Quote 4: "JPMorgan expects their capital expenditures to reach $650 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027. Profitability remains intact, with operating cash flow projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027." Let's write this note under the slug `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. We can rename the title of the note slightly if needed to match the new scale, e.g., "Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Hyperscalers Guide $725B in 2026". Or we can keep the title similar. Let's make it: "Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Hyperscalers Guide Up to $725B in 2026". Yes, let's do that! Let's write the note.

Now let's write the note updating `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`. This note is titled: "Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion and Scale Backlogs Amid Heavy Debt and Widening Losses". Let's review the updates we have for CoreWeave and Nebius Group: - Both joined the Nasdaq-100 index on June 22, 2026, marking a massive milestone of institutional maturity. - **CoreWeave:** Q1 2026 revenue was $2.08B (up 111.69% YoY). Contracted revenue backlog reached **$99.4 billion** as of March 31, 2026, including a $21B Meta commitment and $6B Jane Street commitment. Guided 2026 capex is **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from previous guidance of $30B-$35B). However, Q1 FCF was negative $4.71B, and quarterly interest expense was $536 million. - **Nebius Group:** Q1 2026 revenue was $399 million (up 684% YoY). Nebius AI cloud revenue surged 841% YoY to $389.7 million. In March 2026, signed a 5-year deal with Meta worth up to **$27 billion**, including $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin compute infrastructure. NVIDIA invested $2 billion in Nebius in March 2026. Target ARR of $7B to $9B by year-end 2026. Let's write this note under the slug `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`. Let's review the quotes we have for this: From `https://www.aol.com/finance/coreweave-just-added-32-billion-163429024.html`: - Quote 1: "CoreWeave booked $99.4 billion of revenue backlog, including a $21 billion Meta commitment and $6 billion from Jane Street. Management signed more than $40 billion of new commitments in Q1 alone and now counts ten customers committed to spending at least $1 billion." - Quote 2: "Total liabilities hit $50.81 billion, quarterly interest expense doubled to $536 million, and Q2 interest expense is guided to $650 million to $730 million. Q1 free cash flow was negative $4.71 billion on $7.7 billion of CapEx, with full-year 2026 CapEx guided to $31 billion to $35 billion." From `https://eciks.org/10730-98031-nbis-nasdaq-100-inclusion-ai-infrastructure`: - Quote 3: "The company reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $399 million on May 13, up 684% year-over-year from $50.9 million in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.11, far exceeding analyst expectations for a loss of $0.78 per share—a beat of 360%." - Quote 4: "In March 2026, the company signed a five-year deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion, including $12 billion in dedicated NVIDIA Vera Rubin compute infrastructure and $15 billion in committed capacity purchases from Meta." Let's write this note now.

This is excellent! We have updated the three critical notes that track: 1. Nvidia's record Q1 results, shareholder meeting, Micron's Q3 blowout, and Vera Rubin production ramp (`nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`). 2. Big Tech's massive capital expenditures, Alphabet's historic $85B equity raise, and revised Wall Street projections (`big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`). 3. Specialized GPU clouds (CoreWeave and Nebius Group) gaining Nasdaq-100 inclusion, their Q1 metrics, and multi-billion-dollar backlogs (`gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`). Let's register a new watch for Alphabet's $40B ATM program beginning in Q3 2026 to track its execution. This is a great forward-looking catalyst. Let's do that!

Let's see if there are any other watches or threads we should resolve or record. Wait, let's look at the threads listed: - `019eb93f-9403-7dea-9c9e-9ac0765dd674`: "Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing". Wait, this is still open since Meta hasn't announced any equity offering yet, though Alphabet completed theirs. We will keep it open. - `019ed2f6-f136-7051-a5b0-fa3b26ec02e0`: "Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release" (expected late August 2026). - `019edd49-1ccb-73d3-9fc0-80ae266f32c4`: "Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory" (expected late August 2026). - `019ee796-b599-775e-b0db-e799779d71a4`: "Anthropic public S-1 filing and IPO debut" (expected Nov 2026). - `019eecbc-83f2-7338-8da9-83c6a4f4bd83`: "Google Cloud $920M/month CoreWeave capacity payments commence" (scheduled to start October 2026). - `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`: "NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill" (one_shot, expected by end of year/december 2026). - `019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e`: "Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027" (ongoing). - `019f0679-7d60-7d01-98b1-601ff5664523`: "OpenAI Jalapeño chip initial production deployment" (expected end of 2026). - `019f0679-f319-75c7-b35d-6dea5ba6b6d4`: "Long-Term Impact of Custom Silicon on Nvidia's Pricing Power and Margins" (ongoing question). Everything looks very clean and well-structured. We have updated all the relevant notes with robust, primary-source evidence, registered a new watch, and recorded an event on an existing watch. I will now call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle.

I have completed the research cycle and updated the three core notes tracking Nvidia's AI capex story, Big Tech's historic capital expenditure guidance, and the specialized GPU cloud ("neocloud") market. ### Summary of Key Findings 1. **Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact (`[[nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book]]`):** * At Nvidia's shareholder meeting on June 24, 2026, CEO Jensen Huang declared that AI has entered a **"true profitability era"** and confirmed that the next-generation **Vera Rubin architecture** (successor to Blackwell) is moving into full-scale production, de-risking the next leg of revenue growth. * **Micron's Q3 fiscal 2026 blowout** (reported June 24) showed a **346% YoY revenue surge to $41.46B** and record gross margins of **84.9%** (temporarily eclipsing Nvidia's 74.1%). Micron's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply is fully sold out through fixed-price contracts for the remainder of 2026, confirming intense downstream demand for AI servers. * Nvidia's fundamentals remain staggering, with Q1 FY2027 revenue of **$81.61B (+85.2% YoY)**, data center revenue of **$75B (+92% YoY)**, and a record **$48.59B in quarterly free cash flow**. 2. **Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale (`[[big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026]]`):** * The "Big Four" hyperscalers (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta) are on track to spend a combined **$695 billion to $725 billion** on capital expenditures in 2026 alone. * **Alphabet** completed a historic **$85 billion equity offering** (the largest in corporate history) on June 3, 2026—including a $10 billion investment from Berkshire Hathaway—to fund its upsized 2026 capex guidance of **$180 billion to $190 billion**. * **Amazon (AWS)** is guiding to a projected **$200 billion** in 2026 capex (up 50% YoY), while **Microsoft** raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to **$190 billion** (including $25B in component-pricing inflation). **Meta** raised its 2026 capex to **$125B–$145B**. * JPMorgan Global Research's midyear outlook projects total global AI-related capital expenditures to reach **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from $5.1T). 3. **Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion (`[[gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment]]`):** * On June 22, 2026, **CoreWeave (CRWV)** and **Nebius Group (NBIS)** officially joined the **Nasdaq-100 Index**, marking a milestone of institutional maturity. * **CoreWeave** reported Q1 2026 revenue of **$2.08B (+111.7% YoY)** and a massive contracted revenue backlog of **$99.4 billion** (up from $14.7B a year earlier), which includes a **$21B Meta commitment** and $6B Jane Street commitment. However, Q1 FCF burned **negative $4.71B** on $7.7B of CapEx, and full-year CapEx is guided to **$31B–$35B**. * **Nebius Group** posted Q1 2026 revenue of **$399M (+684% YoY)** and a massive **$27 billion 5-year contract with Meta** (including $12B in dedicated Nvidia Vera Rubin infrastructure). Nvidia cemented this partnership by investing **$2 billion** in Nebius in March 2026. ### Watches & Events Recorded * **Event Recorded:** CoreWeave's Q1 capex hit $7.7B, and full-year 2026 capex was guided to $31B–$35B (recorded on the ongoing `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` watch). * **New Watch Registered:** `Alphabet $40B ATM Stock Offering Execution` (ongoing) to monitor the execution of Alphabet's ATM stock offering starting in Q3 2026.