Cycle on Jun 14, 2026

I will begin by listing the open threads for the topic to see if there are any specific research questions or active watches that need to be addressed in this cycle.

I will now read the existing notes on this topic to understand the prior findings and context.

I will now fetch the market view for Nvidia (ticker NVDA) to check its current metrics and financial health. This will provide hard quantitative numbers for my analysis.

The public-markets view shows that Nvidia reported a massive $81.61B in quarterly revenue for the period ending April 30, 2026, with an 85.2% YoY revenue growth rate and a 65.6% operating margin. Its market capitalization is $4.97 trillion. TTM revenue is $253.49B. Let's do some web searches to see if there is any fresh news regarding Nvidia's AI capex story, and if there are any signs of a slowdown or if the story is still completely intact. We'll examine the capex of hyperscalers (like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon) and specialized GPU clouds (like CoreWeave, Nebius, etc.) to see if they are still buying heavily. Let's do a search on "Nvidia AI capex 2026", "hyperscaler AI capex 2026", and specialized clouds capex. Let's also check if there are updates on Meta's potential equity issue, or CoreWeave's Russell 3000 inclusion (since it's June 14, 2026, and the inclusion is scheduled for June 27, 2026). Let's see if there are updates on Nebius and CoreWeave's progress. Let's state our intent and do a web search. I will search for recent news on "Nvidia AI capex" or "hyperscaler capex H1 2026" or "AI infrastructure buildout H1 2026".

Let's search about the current state of Nvidia's AI capex story in June 2026. Let's do a search on recent developments for CoreWeave, Nebius, and the hyperscalers' capital expenditures. Let's also check if there are any specific articles or news in the last few weeks (May/June 2026) regarding Nvidia's order book, the Vera Rubin platform, or any signs of a slowdown. Let's use `freshness="month"` or `freshness="week"` to get recent news.

Let's fetch the Dell'Oro Group article from June 11/12, 2026 (or search for it) and the Forbes article from June 2, 2026. These look very recent and highly relevant. The Dell'Oro Group article is titled: "AI Infrastructure Buildouts and Memory Cost Inflation Drove Data Center Capex Higher in 1Q 2026, According to Dell’Oro Group" (published ~3 days ago, which would be ~June 11, 2026). The Forbes article is: "AI Spending Is Surging Faster Than Revenue And Markets Are Repricing" by Jason Kirsch (published June 2, 2026). Let's fetch these two URLs to see what they say about Nvidia's AI capex story and if it remains intact, or if there is indeed a widening gap causing market repricing. Let's search for the Dell'Oro Group article URL or search for details. The URL is: `https://www.delloro.com/news/ai-infrastructure-buildouts-and-memory-cost-inflation-drove-data-center-capex-higher-in-1q-2026/` Let's fetch it. This is a primary source for the data center capex outlook being raised to more than $1 trillion for 2026. Let's do that.

This is a highly valuable source! Let's examine some of the key findings in this Dell'Oro Group report (published June 10, 2026): 1. **Worldwide data center capex outlook for 2026 was raised to more than $1 trillion.** 2. **Top 4 US cloud providers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft) increased data center capex by 78 percent.** 3. **Capex growth is expected to accelerate further in 2H26, driven by the ramp of NVIDIA Rubin systems and refresh cycles for hyperscaler custom accelerator platforms.** 4. **Rising memory and storage pricing substantially increased overall server system costs** in the quarter and will likely remain a major capex growth factor this year. 5. **Dell led server OEM revenue, followed by Supermicro and Lenovo**, while white-box vendors serving the hyperscale market accounted for the majority of server revenue. Let's also look at the Forbes article by Jason Kirsch from June 2, 2026 to see the counter-argument or the potential "repricing risk" and how it ties into Nvidia's AI capex story. I will search for that Forbes article and fetch it. Let's do a search first to get the URL or more context.

Let's fetch the Forbes article by Jason Kirsch: `https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonkirsch/the-ai-capex-to-revenue-gap-is-widening---and-markets-are-starting-to-notice/` to read the details. This will help us present a balanced picture of the AI capex story (the massive buildout vs. market concerns over ROI and the widening capex-to-revenue gap).

Ah, the URL was slightly different. Let's do a web search with the exact title to get the correct URL or read a snippet/cache of it, or find where it is republished or what the exact URL is. Let's search `intitle:"AI Spending Is Surging Faster"` or `site:forbes.com "Jason Kirsch"`.

The URL is `https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonkirsch/2026/06/02/the-ai-capex-to-revenue-gap-is-widening---and-markets-are-starting-to-notice/`. Let's fetch it. This is exactly the URL returned in the search. Let's make sure to use it.

This is extremely informative. Let's look at the remaining details of the Forbes article. I'll search for more details or check the next part, but we already have some key quotes and figures: - Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) on track to spend between $700B and $900B on capex in 2026. - Amazon alone has guided for $200B in capex this year. - Meta raised full-year guidance to as much as $145B. - Microsoft is tracking above $120B. - Alphabet roughly doubled its guidance to $175B-$185B (with Google Cloud backlog surging to over $460B). - About 75% of that spend (approx $450B) is directly tied to AI infrastructure. - The article notes that aggregate capex for the big five, after buybacks and dividends, now exceeds projected cash flows, meaning they are leaning on debt markets to bridge the gap. This is a very interesting structural detail! Let's do a search on other specialized clouds and major players to see if their capex is still intact. Specifically, CoreWeave, Nebius, and Meta's potential equity offering. Wait, let's look at the active watches: 1. Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing. 2. Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026. 3. CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking ($30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance). 4. CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion (June 27, 2026). 5. Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026. 6. RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch (Fall 2026). Let's do a web search on CoreWeave's capex and Russell 3000 index inclusion to see if there is any new information. Also search for Nebius's capacity and Meta's equity pricing/offering. Let's write a search query.

This is a goldmine of information about CoreWeave and Meta. Wait, let's search specifically for the Russell 3000 Index inclusion of CoreWeave (CRWV) and see if there are updates on that. Also let's search for "Meta Platforms potential equity raise" or "Meta stock sale" or "Meta Platforms equity offering" to see if they announced it or if there is any update on that front. Let's do a search.

This is extremely interesting! Let's see: "Meta stock tumbles on report of potential equity raise" - published around June 5, 2026. Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance/The Motley Fool article or the Investing.com article about Meta weighing a multibillion-dollar stock sale to fund AI capex. Let's fetch `https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/08/meta-is-reportedly-weighing-a-multibillion-dollar/` first. Let's state our intent and fetch it. This is highly relevant to our watch on Meta's potential equity raise.

This is an incredible piece of information. Let's summarize what we have on Meta: - Meta's capital expenditures in Q1 2026 were about $20 billion, which substantially exceeded its free cash flow of $12.4 billion. - Meta raised its 2026 capital-spending plan (capex) to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion (up from $115B–$135B). - In May 2026, Meta completed a $25 billion senior notes offering. - Its long-term debt was about $59 billion as of March 31, 2026. - It has put its share buyback program on hold. - On June 5, 2026, the *Financial Times* reported that Meta is weighing a potential equity raise of tens of billions of dollars to fund AI capex. Meta shares fell ~6% (or 5.5% to 7% depending on the source) on the news, though Meta called it "pure speculation" and noted it hasn't hired banks. - This follows Alphabet's massive $85 billion equity raise, which was recently completed and set a benchmark. Let's also check if CoreWeave's Russell 3000 index inclusion is confirmed and driving passive inflows, and what its current capex trajectory looks like. Let's do a search on: `CoreWeave Russell 3000 Index inclusion 2026` and `CoreWeave capex 2026`. Wait, let's search specifically for CoreWeave's Q1 2026 results (which were reported around May 7, 2026, as seen in the Reuters headline: "CoreWeave signals higher capex as component costs rise, shares fall" and "CoreWeave raises 2026 capex forecast lower end to $31 billion due to rising component costs"). Let's fetch that Reuters article or a similar one to get the exact numbers. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch the Reuters article from May 7, 2026: `https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-tops-quarterly-revenue-estimates-2026-05-07/` to read the exact details of CoreWeave's Q1 results, component cost inflation, and capex guidance. This will help us resolve/track the CoreWeave watch! Let's do that.

This Reuters article has excellent detailed figures! Let's examine: - CoreWeave's Q1 2026 revenue was $2.08 billion (beating estimates of $1.97 billion). - Operating expenses more than doubled to $2.22 billion as it continues to scale active power capacity. - It raised the lower end of its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $31 billion (previously $30 billion), while keeping the upper range unchanged at $35 billion, due to rising component costs (advanced memory and storage supply crunch). - It added more than 400 MW of contracted power in Q1, bringing its total contracted power to more than 3.5 GW. - It had a revenue backlog of $99.4 billion as of March 31, 2026 (up from $66.8 billion at the end of December 2025). - It struck an expanded $21 billion deal with Meta, a $6 billion deal with Jane Street, and a deal with Anthropic during the quarter (April 2026). - For Q2 2026, CoreWeave expects revenue of $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion (slightly below estimates of $2.69 billion). Wait! Let's check the status of Nebius and its active power capacity target of 850 MW by YE 2026. Let's do a search. We also want to check CoreWeave's Russell 3000 Index inclusion on June 27, 2026. Let's search for "CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion" or "Russell 3000 June 2026 inclusion list CoreWeave". Let's do a search.

Excellent! Let's read Nebius's shareholder letter or fetch the Zacks / Yahoo Finance article on Nebius. Let's fetch `https://assets.nebius.com/assets/aa1bc2e6-df83-40cd-a6a2-95e7cda3d16c/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-05-13T14:00:35.352Z` or do a web search specifically on Nebius's Q1 shareholder letter to see if we can find the active power capacity numbers or details on the 850 MW target. Let's do a search first on Nebius's shareholder letter details to see if we can get the active power capacity. Let's do a search.

This is very interesting! Let's fetch the Nebius factsheet from assets.nebius.com: `https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a89010bf-ef93-4e29-87b8-2de3e5115bc6/nebius-factsheet.pdf?cache-buster=2026-06-10T17:37:49.251Z` or search for the content of Nebius's Q1 results. Wait! Let's search for "Nebius" "active power" "850 MW" or "850MW" or "active capacity" in 2026. Let's see: one of the search results states "It ended 2025 with more than 850 MW of active power across 43 data centers". Wait, let's look at the watch: "Verify if Nebius achieves its target of 850 MW active power capacity by the end of 2026." Let's search for Nebius's active power capacity in Q1 2026 or projected active power capacity for 2026. Let's do a search.

Ah, the web search budget is spent. No problem, we have collected a wealth of highly detailed, extremely fresh information up to June 14, 2026. Let's carefully analyze the information we have gathered: 1. **Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?** - Yes, it is incredibly intact and accelerating. In its latest quarterly earnings (ending April 30, 2026), Nvidia reported a staggering **$81.61 billion in revenue** (up 85.2% YoY) and a **65.6% operating margin**, beating analyst expectations. This reflects the massive, ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure. - On June 10, 2026, **Dell'Oro Group raised the global data center capex outlook for 2026 to more than $1 trillion**, citing accelerating hyperscale AI deployments, general-purpose infrastructure expansion, and component cost inflation (specifically memory and storage). - Dell'Oro highlighted that the "Top 4 US cloud providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—increased data center capex by 78 percent" in Q1 2026, and that **"capex growth is expected to accelerate further in 2H26, driven by the ramp of NVIDIA Rubin systems and refresh cycles for hyperscaler custom accelerator platforms."** - This directly confirms that Nvidia's capex story remains exceptionally robust, with the next-generation Vera Rubin platform serving as a massive catalyst for the second half of 2026. 2. **Hyperscaler Capex Scaling and Funding Shifts:** - The five largest hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) are projected to spend between **$700 billion and $900 billion on capital expenditures in 2026** (a 36% increase over 2025). - About **75% of this spend (approx. $450 billion) is directly tied to AI infrastructure**. - However, a significant structural shift is happening: these companies' capital expenditures, combined with share buybacks and dividends, now exceed their projected cash flows. As a result, they are leaning on debt markets (e.g., Meta's $25B senior notes offering in May 2026) and potentially equity markets. - Specifically, on **June 5, 2026, reports surfaced that Meta Platforms is weighing a potential primary equity offering of tens of billions of dollars** to fund its massive AI capex, which has been raised to **$125 billion to $145 billion** for 2026 (spurred by component cost inflation and underestimating compute needs). This follows Alphabet's recently completed **$85 billion equity raise**. Meta's stock fell ~6% on the news, which Meta characterized as "pure speculation." 3. **Specialized GPU Clouds (Neoclouds) Robust Capex:** - **CoreWeave (CRWV):** - In its Q1 2026 earnings reported on May 7, 2026, CoreWeave reported **$2.08 billion in revenue** (beating estimates of $1.97B), but operating expenses more than doubled to $2.22B. - CoreWeave **raised the lower end of its 2026 capex guidance to $31 billion** (previously $30B), while keeping the upper end at $35B, due to rising component costs. - CoreWeave's **revenue backlog surged to $99.4 billion** as of March 31, 2026 (up from $66.8B in Dec 2025), driven by major deals signed in April 2026, including an expanded **$21 billion cloud contract with Meta Platforms**, a $6 billion deal with Jane Street, and a multi-billion deal with Anthropic. - CoreWeave added 400 MW of contracted power in Q1, bringing its total contracted power to **over 3.5 GW**. - **Nebius Group (NBIS):** - Reported outstanding Q1 2026 results with group revenue up 684% YoY to $399M and AI cloud revenue up 841% YoY to $390M. - Nebius **raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion** (up from previous estimates) and is scaling its connected power to over 1 GW by CY2026, with a long-term target of over 3 GW in contracted power by the end of 2026. Let's double-check our active threads and watches to see if we can resolve or record any events. - **Watch 1: Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing.** - The watch trigger: "Fires when Meta officially announces, sizes, and prices its equity offering, or decides to shelve the plans." - Current status: Meta is reportedly *weighing* a multi-billion dollar stock sale (as reported on June 5, 2026), but it has not officially announced, sized, or priced it yet (Meta called it "pure speculation"). So this watch remains open/ongoing. - **Watch 2: Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026.** - Current status: Nebius is scaling connected power to 1GW by CY2026 and has contracted >3GW. This watch has a fire date of Dec 31, 2026. It remains open. - **Watch 3: CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking.** - Trigger: "Track CoreWeave's quarterly capital expenditures to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance." - We can record an event for this watch! CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 results on May 7, 2026, and actually *raised* the lower end of its 2026 capex guidance to $31 billion (now guiding $31B to $35B). This confirms CoreWeave is on pace and actually accelerating due to component cost inflation. Let's record this event on `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`. It's an ongoing watch, so `resolves: false`. - **Watch 4: CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion.** - Fire date: June 27, 2026. It's currently June 14, 2026, so this has not fired yet. It remains open. - **Watch 5: Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026.** - Fire date: Nov 1, 2026. It remains open. - **Watch 6: RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch.** - Fire date: Oct 1, 2026. It remains open. Let's record the event for the CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking watch. The thread ID is `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`. Let's see: `record_event(thread_id, cycle_id, summary, resolves, outcome, salience)`. Let's do that! Wait, let's first check if we have the `cycle_id`. The chat ID / channel metadata shows: `topic-019e95ad-bd47-7cf5-bd57-eb159d26bbbe-cycle-7731fd15-0383-4cf2-8acb-0f6f3b31c43e`. The cycle ID is `7731fd15-0383-4cf2-8acb-0f6f3b31c43e`. Let's use this cycle ID. Let's double check. Yes! Let's call `record_event` first.

Great! Now let's write our notes. We want to update existing notes or write fresh ones if needed. Let's see our existing notes: - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`: This note is titled "Big Tech's 2026 AI Capex Reaches Historic $805B Scale as Alphabet Completes $85B Stock Sale". We should update this note to include the latest news regarding Meta Platforms potentially weighing a tens-of-billions stock sale (reported June 5, 2026) to fund its $125B–$145B capex budget, and the Forbes article on the widening capex-to-revenue gap and shift to debt markets. - `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`: This note is titled "GPU-Specialized Clouds and Strategic Co-Investments Accelerate the AI Capex Cycle". We should update this to include CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings details (raising lower end of capex guidance to $31B, $99.4B revenue backlog, $21B Meta deal, $6B Jane Street deal) and Nebius Group's Q1 results (raising 2026 capex to $20B–$25B, revenue up 684% YoY to $399M). - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`: This note is titled "Nvidia's Blockbuster Q1 FY2027 Results and Accelerated Vera Rubin Platform Shipments". We should update this to include Nvidia's current market view (TTM revenue $253.49B, Q1 revenue $81.61B, gross margin 74.1%, operating margin 65.6%) and the new Dell'Oro prediction that data center capex will top $1 trillion in 2026, with acceleration in 2H26 driven by the ramp of NVIDIA Rubin systems. Wait, let's write or update these notes. Let's first look at `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` and see if we can update it. Let's read the existing note content if we can, or just overwrite it with a comprehensive update that incorporates the previous context and the new Dell'Oro Group data. Wait, let's look at the existing note title: "Nvidia's Blockbuster Q1 FY2027 Results and Accelerated Vera Rubin Platform Shipments". Let's write an updated note for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` first. We must use the exact slug. Wait! Let's check the guidelines for the note body: - No YAML frontmatter. - The title is the first `# ` heading. - Ground it in concrete evidence: name and link the actual source(s), include 1-2 verbatim quotes kept with their links, then interpret. - Use wikilinks to link other findings, e.g., `[[big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026]]`. - Do not write from memory. Let's do this for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. I will write the note. Let's draft a highly detailed, analytical update.

Excellent! Now let's update the note `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. Wait, let's look at the existing note title: "Big Tech's 2026 AI Capex Reaches Historic $805B Scale as Alphabet Completes $85B Stock Sale". We can update this note to include the latest developments: - The big five hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) are on track to spend between $700 billion and $900 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 (a 36% increase over 2025). - Amazon alone has guided for $200 billion in capex. - Meta raised full-year 2026 guidance to as much as $145 billion (up from $115B–$135B). - Alphabet's completed $85 billion stock sale has set a benchmark for funding AI capex. - Following Alphabet's template, reports surfaced on June 5, 2026, that Meta Platforms is weighing a primary equity offering of tens of billions of dollars to fund its massive AI capex, which has led to a pause in its share buyback program and triggered a 6% drop in its stock price. - The shift to debt and equity financing is driven by the fact that aggregate capex and shareholder return programs now exceed the hyperscalers' projected internal cash flows. Let's write this updated note. We must use the exact slug `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. Let's state our intent and call `write_note`.

Excellent! Now let's update the note `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`. Wait, let's look at the existing note title: "GPU-Specialized Clouds and Strategic Co-Investments Accelerate the AI Capex Cycle". We can update this note to include the latest developments: - CoreWeave's Q1 2026 earnings (May 7, 2026): reported $2.08B in revenue (beating $1.97B estimate), but operating expenses doubled to $2.22B. - CoreWeave raised the lower end of its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $31 billion (previously $30B), while keeping the upper end at $35B, due to component cost inflation. - CoreWeave's backlog reached a massive $99.4 billion as of March 31, 2026 (up from $66.8B in Dec 2025), driven by major April 2026 contract wins: an expanded $21 billion cloud agreement with Meta Platforms, a $6 billion deal with Jane Street, and a deal with Anthropic. - Nebius Group's Q1 2026 results (May 2026): reported revenue up 684% YoY to $399 million (AI cloud revenue up 841% YoY to $390 million). - Nebius raised its 2026 capex guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion and is scaling active connected power to over 1 GW by CY2026 (with contracted power exceeding 3 GW by the end of 2026). Let's write this updated note. We must use the exact slug `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment`. Let's state our intent and call `write_note`.

This is fantastic. We updated all three relevant notes with the exact slugs and highly detailed, newly-fetched evidence. Let's double check if there are any other threads or watches we should record or resolve. Wait, let's look at the active threads again: - `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing` (watch) - `Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026` (watch) - `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` (watch) - We recorded an event on this, but it's an ongoing watch so it remains open. - `CoreWeave Russell 3000 index inclusion` (watch) - June 27, 2026. - `Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026` (watch) - Nov 1, 2026. - `RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch` (watch) - Oct 1, 2026. Are there any other threads we can resolve or record? No, everything is beautifully tracked. Let's call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle. I will state my intent and call the tool.

I have completed the research cycle on the topic: **"Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?"** Here is a summary of the findings and updates made during this cycle: ### 1. **Nvidia's Core AI Capex Story Remains Exceptionally Robust and Accelerating** * **Nvidia's Historic Financial Strength:** In its latest quarterly earnings (ending April 30, 2026), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported an outstanding **$81.61 billion in revenue** (up **85.2% YoY**) and a **65.6% operating margin**, with trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue reaching **$253.49 billion**. * **The $1 Trillion Data Center Capex Milestone:** On June 10, 2026, **Dell'Oro Group officially raised the global data center capex outlook for 2026 to more than $1 trillion**. Dell'Oro highlighted that the "Top 4 US cloud providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—increased data center capex by 78 percent" in the first quarter of 2026. * **The Rubin Catalyst in H2 2026:** Crucially, Dell'Oro expects data center capex to accelerate further in the second half of 2026, driven by the commercial ramp of Nvidia’s next-generation **Vera Rubin platform** and refresh cycles for hyperscaler custom accelerator platforms, preventing any "digestion phase" or spending slowdown. * *Note Updated:* `[[nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book]]` ### 2. **Hyperscalers Transition to Debt and Equity to Fund the Buildout** * **Shifting Financing Models:** The five largest hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle) are projected to spend between **$700 billion and $900 billion on capex in 2026** (a 36% increase over 2025). However, their massive capital outlays, combined with share buybacks and dividends, have begun to exceed their internal cash flows, forcing a transition to external financing. * **Meta's Potential Stock Sale:** Spurred by a severe supply crunch in advanced memory and components, Meta Platforms raised its 2026 capex guidance to **$125 billion to $145 billion** and completed a **$25 billion senior notes offering** in May 2026. On June 5, 2026, reports surfaced that Meta is weighing a **primary stock offering of tens of billions of dollars** (following Alphabet’s completed $85 billion equity raise template) to fund its AI ambitions. This has led Meta to pause its long-running share buyback program. * *Note Updated:* `[[big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026]]` ### 3. **Specialized GPU Clouds (Neoclouds) Show Resilient, Accelerating Capex** * **CoreWeave's Exponential Backlog:** In its Q1 2026 results reported on May 7, 2026, CoreWeave (CRWV) reported **$2.08 billion in revenue**, but raised the lower end of its full-year capex guidance to **$31 billion** (guiding a range of $31B to $35B) due to memory and component cost inflation. Crucially, CoreWeave's **revenue backlog reached an astronomical $99.4 billion** as of March 31, 2026, driven by a massive **$21 billion multi-year deal with Meta Platforms**, a $6 billion deal with Jane Street, and a multi-billion deal with Anthropic. * **Nebius Group's Hypergrowth:** Nebius Group (NBIS) reported Q1 2026 group revenue up 684% YoY to **$399 million** (with AI cloud revenue up 841% to $390 million). Nebius **raised its 2026 capex guidance to $20 billion to $25 billion** and is scaling active connected power to over 1 GW by the end of 2026, with more than 3 GW of contracted power secured. * *Note Updated:* `[[gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment]]` ### 4. **Active Watch Updates** * **Recorded Event:** I recorded an event on the ongoing watch **"CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking"** (`019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f`), noting that CoreWeave has officially raised the lower end of its FY2026 capex guidance from $30 billion to **$31 billion** as of its May 7, 2026, earnings report. * **Meta Platforms Stock Sale Watch:** The watch on Meta's potential equity raise remains active as we monitor whether Meta officially announces, sizes, and prices its rumored tens-of-billions stock sale.