Cycle on Jul 2, 2026

I will start by listing the active threads and reading the existing notes for the topic to see what questions are open and what findings have already been recorded.

I will now retrieve the existing findings on this topic to see what notes are already recorded and avoid duplicate slugs or content.

I see the existing notes and active threads. The topic brief asks: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" Let's see if there are any new developments regarding Nvidia's AI capex, its customers (hyperscalers, neoclouds), or any market shifts. First, I should call `market_view` for Nvidia (NVDA) and perhaps other relevant companies like CoreWeave, Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle (ORCL) to get current public-markets data. Let's do `market_view` for NVDA. I will also check the macro view.

I see the market view of NVDA. Now let's do a web search to find the latest updates on Nvidia's AI capex story, its AI infrastructure orders, Blackwell/Vera Rubin ramp, and customer capex trends (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Oracle, CoreWeave, etc.). I will search for recent news on Nvidia AI capex, Blackwell demand, Vera Rubin orders, and hyperscaler capex updates in late June/early July 2026.

Let's search for "Nvidia" or "capex" or "Blackwell" or "Vera Rubin" on the web with `recent=true` or freshness="week" to see what has happened in the last few days in late June or early July 2026. This will give us the most recent developments.

Let's check the JPMorgan midyear outlook article about the AI capex explosion being profitable, and the "Nvidia's Micron-Led Bounce Tests Confidence in the AI Capex Cycle" article. I will fetch these URLs to see what is happening with the AI capex story. First, let's search for "What bubble? JPMorgan says the $5.5 trillion AI capex explosion is..." to find the exact URL and then fetch it, or let's search for JPMorgan midyear outlook AI capex. Let's do a search to get the URLs.

Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance / Fortune article about JPMorgan's midyear outlook on the $5.5 trillion AI capex explosion: `https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/bubble-jpmorgan-says-5-5-094757864.html` or `https://qoshe.com/fortune/sheryl-estrada/what-bubble-jpmorgan-says-the-5-5-trillion-ai-capex-explosion-is-profitable-for-now/188738532/amp`. Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance article first, or the qoshe one if it works better. Let's do `web_fetch` for `https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/bubble-jpmorgan-says-5-5-094757864.html`. If that fails, I can try another link.

This is a very valuable source. JPMorgan's midyear outlook (June 25, 2026) shows: - Global AI-related capital expenditures are estimated to reach $5.5 trillion through 2030 (up from $5.1 trillion). - Debt financing tied to the AI build-out is raised to $4.1 trillion. - Hyperscalers combined capex is expected to reach $650 billion in 2026 and exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027. - Profitability remains intact, with operating cash flow projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027. - Loan-to-cost ratios average above 85%, with some exceeding 90%. - High-grade corporate debt will account for more than $2.1 trillion in data center financing over five years. In 2026, the bank anticipates $150 billion in U.S. hyperscaler issuance and another $100 billion equivalent abroad. Let's also fetch the article: "Nvidia's Micron-Led Bounce Tests Confidence in the AI Capex Cycle". Let's do `web_fetch` on `https://www.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200682817`. If it doesn't load, we can query for more details.

This is an incredibly rich, detailed, and highly relevant article from June 25, 2026. Let's summarize the key details that directly address the user's brief: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" 1. **Nvidia's financial performance and trajectory:** - Fiscal 2026 revenue climbed 65% (or 65.47%) year over year to $215.94B (or ~$216B), with operating profit reaching $130B (or operating income/net income surged 64.75% to $120.07B). - In Q1 FY2027 (quarter ending April 30, 2026), reported in late May 2026, revenue was $81.61B (or ~$82B), up 85% YoY. Data center revenue was $75B (up 92% YoY). Gross margin was 74.1% or 74.9% (adjusted). Free cash flow was $48.59B (or ~$49B). - Nvidia's 2026 free cash flow is forecast near $195.4B. - Forward P/E is near 19.3x, while trailing P/E is near 30.6x (or 30.3x as of July 2, 2026 from the market view). 2. **Vera Rubin and Blackwell updates:** - Jensen Huang confirmed at the June 2026 shareholder meeting that the next-generation **Vera Rubin** architecture (the successor to Blackwell) is moving into **full-scale production** (unveiled alongside the Vera CPU at GTC 2026 in March 2026). - Huang declared that AI has entered a "true profitability era" driven by autonomous agents. - GTC 2026 forecast by Jensen Huang: Demand for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems could reach **$1 trillion by 2027**. 3. **Hyperscaler capex trends:** - JPMorgan's midyear outlook (June 25, 2026) projects global AI-related capex will reach **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from $5.1T). - Hyperscaler capital expenditures are expected to reach **$650 billion in 2026** and exceed **$1.1 trillion in 2027**. - Hyperscaler operating cash flow is projected to surpass $900 billion by 2027, indicating profitability remains intact. - Nvidia raised $25 billion in its largest-ever bond deal, drawing $85 billion in orders, to prepare for sustained capacity expansion. (Wait, let me double-check who raised $25B. The article says: "Nvidia raised $25 billion in its largest-ever bond deal, drawing $85 billion in orders...". Wait, let me verify if Nvidia raised $25 billion, or if it was another company, or if that was a typo in the article. Or let's see if there are other sources confirming this or if it was Alphabet or something. Actually, the prior finding mentioned: "Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has shattered records by pricing an unprecedented $85 billion capital raise...". Ah! Let's check who raised the bond deal. The article says: "Nvidia raised $25 billion in its largest-ever bond deal, drawing $85 billion in orders, a financing move..." Wait, let's search for "Nvidia raised $25 billion in its largest-ever bond deal" or similar to verify.) Let's do a search on "Nvidia raised $25 billion" or "Nvidia bond deal" or "Nvidia largest-ever bond deal" to verify. This is important to ensure accuracy.

Wow, this is fantastic! Nvidia indeed launched a $25 billion bond issuance on June 15, 2026, its first corporate bond sale in five years (since 2021). It drew $85 billion in orders. Let's fetch `https://www.forbes.com/sites/daraabasiita/2026/06/17/nvidia-returns-to-the-bond-market-with-a-25-billion-sale/` or `https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidias-25b-bond-deal-sends-173300745.html` to read the details of this bond sale and understand why they raised $25 billion when they already have so much cash flow. Let's search for the Yahoo Finance article first or do a web fetch. Let's do `web_fetch` on `https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidias-25b-bond-deal-sends-173300745.html`.

Excellent, this is another very important source. Let's see what else has happened regarding Nvidia's AI capex story. We have: - Nvidia's record Q1 FY2027 results ($81.61B revenue, up 85% YoY; data center $75B, up 92% YoY; $48.59B free cash flow). - Nvidia's $25 billion bond sale on June 15, 2026, which drew $85 billion in orders (its first in 5 years). - Jensen Huang's declaration at the June 26, 2026 shareholder meeting that the next-gen **Vera Rubin** architecture is in **full-scale production** and that AI has entered a "true profitability era" driven by autonomous agents. - JPMorgan's midyear outlook (June 25, 2026) projecting global AI capex will reach $5.5 trillion through 2030 (up from $5.1T), with hyperscalers' capex reaching $650 billion in 2026 and exceeding $1.1 trillion in 2027. - Micron's blockbuster Q3 results (reported June 25, 2026) with $41.46 billion in revenue and a record gross margin of 84.9%, confirming the massive demand for HBM memory which is critical for Nvidia's AI accelerators. Let's do a search on "Micron" and "Nvidia" to verify Micron's earnings details or see if they are mentioned in other sources. Yes, the Investing.com article already quoted: "Micron's fiscal third-quarter results, with revenue of $41.46 billion and a record gross margin of 84.9%, reignited confidence across the entire AI semiconductor chain...". Wait, let's verify if Micron's ticker is MU and what its latest numbers look like. Let's run a `market_view` on MU to anchor it.

This is amazing! Micron (MU) has a market capitalization of $1.28 trillion. Let's review Micron's numbers for the quarter ending May 31, 2026: - Revenue: $41.46B (up 345.7% YoY) - Net income: $28.24B (up 1369.0% YoY) - Cash: $25.00B - EPS: $24.89 (vs. $20.98 expected) - Operating margin: 80.4%, profit margin: 55.9% (and gross margin of 72.6% TTM, but for the quarter ending May 31, 2026, the operating margin was 80.4% and net income was $28.24B, showing incredible profitability). Wait, the Investing.com article said: "Micron's fiscal third-quarter results, with revenue of $41.46 billion and a record gross margin of 84.9%, reignited confidence across the entire AI semiconductor chain..." This matches perfectly! Let's do a web search on other hyperscalers' capital expenditures to see if there are any other recent updates on Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, or Oracle that support this. Wait, let's look at the active threads to see if we can address any of them. - `Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000 commercial availability` (fire_date: 2028-01-15, trigger: QCOM) - not fired. - `Qualcomm HBC Gen 1 and AI250 commercial sampling` (fire_date: 2027-06-15, trigger: QCOM) - not fired. - `Alphabet Q2 2026 Earnings and Dilution Impact Tracking` (fire_date: 2026-07-25, trigger: Check for initial share count dilution...) - not fired, as it's currently July 2, 2026 and Alphabet's Q2 earnings are expected late July. - `Alphabet $40B ATM Stock Offering Execution` (GOOGL, ongoing) - let's check if there are any updates on this or if it has started. - `OpenAI Jalapeño chip initial production deployment` (fire_date: 2026-12-15) - not fired. - `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` (ongoing) - let's search if Oracle has started its $40B financing or if there are any updates. - `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill` (fire_date: 2026-07-15) - let's search if Governor Hochul has signed or vetoed the Responsible Data Center Development Act (A11560/S10642). This is due by July 15, 2026. Let's do a search to see if she has signed it or if there is any movement. - `Google Cloud $920M/month CoreWeave capacity payments commence` (fire_date: 2026-10-01) - not fired. - `Anthropic public S-1 filing and IPO debut` (fire_date: 2026-11-15) - not fired. - `Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory` (fire_date: 2026-08-15) - not fired. - `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release` (fire_date: 2026-08-20) - not fired. - `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing` (one_shot) - let's search if Meta has announced any equity offering or if there are rumors. - `Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026` (fire_date: 2026-12-31) - not fired. - `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` (ongoing) - let's search if CoreWeave has reported any new capex figures or secured new debt. - `Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026` (fire_date: 2026-11-01) - not fired, but Jensen Huang did confirm full production in the June 2026 shareholder meeting. - `RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch` (fire_date: 2026-10-01) - not fired. Let's search for "Responsible Data Center Development Act" or "A11560" or "S10642" or "Hochul" to see if there is any update on the New York bill. This could resolve the thread `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill` if she signed or vetoed it. Let's do a search.

Let's search for "Hochul signs" or "Hochul veto" or "Hochul" and "Responsible Data Center Development Act" with freshness="week" or `recent=true` to see if she has made a decision recently (as of late June / early July 2026). This is crucial! Let's do a search.

Ah, so Governor Hochul has NOT signed or vetoed it yet. Lawmakers and advocates are still actively calling on her to sign or veto it as of June 30, 2026. Therefore, that watch remains active and has not fired yet. Let's check if there are any updates on: 1. `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing` 2. `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` 3. `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` 4. `Alphabet $40B ATM Stock Offering Execution` Let's do a search on Meta Platforms equity raise or debt, and Oracle financing updates. Let's search for "Oracle" and "$40 billion" or "ATM program" or "debt" in late June/early July 2026. Let's do a web search.

Let's fetch the CoreWeave capex article from Stocktwits/Yahoo Finance: `https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-guides-31-35b-capex-133400211.html` or the Stocktwits one `https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/crwv-stock-slumps-on-coreweave-capex-projections-for-2026/cZTcmZKRITh` (as of 14 hours ago!) to see what is happening with CoreWeave's capex guidance. And let's fetch `https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/article/meta-microsoft-amazon-and-alphabet-are-about-to-spend-a-shocking-amount-of-money-to-dominate-the-ai-era-115359575.html` to see the Goldman Sachs data on Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet capex. Let's do `web_fetch` for CoreWeave's capex article first: `https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-guides-31-35b-capex-133400211.html`. If that fails, let's try the Stocktwits one. Or let's search for "CoreWeave guides $31-$35B capex for 2026". Let's do `web_fetch` on `https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/coreweave-guides-31-35b-capex-133400211.html`.

This is a brilliant finding! Let's see what we have: - **CoreWeave (CRWV)** has guided full-year 2026 capital expenditures to **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from prior expectations, raising the lower end of its guidance primarily due to component pricing). - CoreWeave's contracted revenue backlog reached **$99.4 billion** at the end of Q1 2026. Roughly 36% of the backlog ($35.8B) will be recognized within the next two years, and 75% ($74.6B) over the next four years. - CoreWeave has surpassed **1 gigawatt of active power** and expanded contracted power to more than **3.5 gigawatts**. - It has secured more than **$20 billion in debt and equity capital financing year-to-date** in 2026. - **Amazon (AMZN)** spent **$43.2 billion in capex in Q1 2026 alone**, primarily toward AWS and generative AI investments. - **Nebius Group (NBIS)** has raised its 2026 capex plan to **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from the prior $16B-$20B range), with capacity deployment tied to future demand for 2027. - Let's check the ticker for CoreWeave (CRWV) if it exists. Yes, the article says CRWV stock slumps or surges. Let's do a `market_view` on CRWV to see its public-market profile and verify if it's traded. Wait, let's also pull the view for Oracle (ORCL) and Meta (META) if needed, but let's start with CRWV.

This is a fantastic update on CoreWeave. Let's look at the watch thread: - `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` (ongoing): "Track CoreWeave's quarterly capex to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance." Wait! The article from June 18, 2026 says: "2026 capital expenditures are projected to be between $31 billion and $35 billion, reflecting the scale of its AI infrastructure ambitions. Notably, the company raised the lower end of its guidance range primarily due to component pricing." And the quarterly trajectory for CoreWeave (CRWV) shows: - Q1 2026 (quarter ending March 31, 2026) capex was **$7.70 billion** (cash flow from operating was $2.98 billion, capex was $7.70 billion, resulting in negative FCF of -$4.71 billion). This is a key data point! In Q1 2026, CoreWeave's capex was indeed $7.70B, which is on pace for the $31B-$35B full-year guidance (since $7.70B * 4 = $30.8B, and capex is expected to ramp up as more Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems are delivered in H2). Let's record a watch event or update this watch. Wait, can we record an event on `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking`? Yes! Its description is "Track CoreWeave's quarterly capital expenditures to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance." We can call `record_event` to state that CoreWeave reported Q1 2026 capex of $7.70B, which is on pace for the guided $31B-$35B full-year 2026 capex (recently raised from $30B-$35B to $31B-$35B). Since this is an `ongoing` watch, we set `resolves: false`. Let's also do a `market_view` on Nebius Group (NBIS) if possible, or search for its ticker or details. Let's do a `market_view` on NBIS to see if it's available. Or let's see if we have other tickers. Let's do a search first to see if NBIS is available as a ticker. Yes, the article says NBIS. Let's run `market_view` for NBIS.

Very nice! Let's see: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has a market capitalization of $61.01B. Its Q1 2026 (quarter ending March 31, 2026) capex was **$2.47 billion** (up significantly, on track for its expanded $20B-$25B capex guidance for 2026). Let's write down the findings and update our existing notes. Let's review the existing notes to see which ones we can update: 1. `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact as Dell Ships First Vera Rubin NVL72 Rack to CoreWeave) Wait, this slug is perfect! We can update this note to include: - Nvidia's record $25 billion bond deal on June 15, 2026, which drew $85 billion in orders, establishing a liquid benchmark and signaling immense credit market confidence in the AI capex cycle. - Jensen Huang's confirmation at the June 2026 shareholder meeting that the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture is moving into full-scale production. He declared that AI has entered a "true profitability era" driven by autonomous agents. - GTC 2026 forecast of $1 trillion in demand for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems through 2027. - Micron's blockbuster Q3 results (reported June 25, 2026) with $41.46 billion in revenue and a record gross margin of 84.9%, reinforcing the massive demand for HBM memory which is critical for Nvidia's AI accelerators. Let's also look at `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Alphabet Prices Record $85B Capital Raise). We can update this note or the `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` note to include the latest capex guidance from CoreWeave and Nebius and the JPMorgan midyear outlook. Wait, let's look at `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` (Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion and Scale Backlogs Amid Heavy Debt and Widening Losses). We can update `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` with: - CoreWeave's updated 2026 capex guidance of **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from prior levels, raised primarily due to component pricing). - CoreWeave's Q1 2026 capex of **$7.70 billion** (negative FCF of -$4.71B) and total debt reaching **$35.15 billion** as of March 31, 2026. - CoreWeave's contracted revenue backlog of **$99.4 billion** at the end of Q1 2026. - Nebius Group's updated 2026 capex guidance of **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from the prior $16B-$20B range) and its Q1 2026 capex of **$2.47 billion**. - CEO Michael Intrator's $32.87 million stock sale on June 23, 2026, and the securities lawsuit filed against CoreWeave for allegedly overstating its ability to meet customer demand, which has contributed to CRWV's 28.2% stock drop over the past month. Let's look at `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Alphabet Prices Record $85B Capital Raise). We can update this note to include: - JPMorgan's midyear outlook (June 25, 2026) which raised the global AI-related capex estimate to **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from $5.1T). - JPMorgan's projection that hyperscalers' capital expenditures will reach **$650 billion in 2026** and exceed **$1.1 trillion in 2027**, with operating cash flows surpassing $900 billion by 2027. - Amazon's enormous Q1 2026 capex of **$43.2 billion** (primarily AWS and generative AI). - Oracle's Q4 and FY2026 results showing FY2026 capital spending reached **$55.66 billion** (surpassing its $50B target), and its plans to raise nearly **$40 billion** in debt and equity in FY2027 to expand its AI data center footprint (which has caused some investor concern over growing debt, sinking the stock over 7% post-earnings). Let's double-check if we have any other notes to update. What about `nvidia-twenty-billion-groq-deal-and-vera-rubin-integration`? Is there anything new there? No, we don't have new Groq-specific info, but we do have Vera Rubin info which is better placed in the main Nvidia capex story (`nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`). Let's review the rules for writing notes: - Body must have title as `# ` heading. - No YAML frontmatter. - Body must carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes with their links. - Use stable slugs. Reuse existing slugs to update. - Cite the `/markets` URLs for any market data we retrieved. - Nvidia market view: `/markets/NVDA/2026/07/02` - Micron market view: `/markets/MU/2026/06/29` - CoreWeave market view: `/markets/CRWV/2026/07/02` - Nebius market view: `/markets/NBIS/2026/06/29` Let's draft the updates for the three notes: 1. `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` 2. `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` 3. `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` Before writing, let's record the event for the CoreWeave capex tracking watch. Wait, let's look at the watch details: - ID: `019eaeeb-61e2-71a6-b308-0186f59be87f` - Title: `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` - Cardinality: `ongoing` - Trigger: `Track CoreWeave's quarterly capital expenditures to verify if it remains on pace for its $30B-$35B full-year 2026 guidance.` Let's call `record_event` for this watch. We will set `resolves: false` since it's an ongoing watch. Let's do that first.

Excellent! The event is recorded. Wait, are there any other watches we should update or record events for? Let's check: - `Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026` (one_shot, fire_date: 2026-11-01). This hasn't happened yet since today is July 2, 2026, though we have confirmation of full production. We will keep it open. - `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` (ongoing). We can record an event if they have officially announced it. Wait, let's look at the description of the Oracle watch: "Track Oracle's progress on its announced plan to raise $40 billion in debt and equity during fiscal year 2027, including its $20 billion ATM program, to fund its AI data center expansion. Monitor SEC filings and earnings transcripts for debt issuances, ATM stock sales, and free cash flow trajectory (seeking recovery from negative $23.69B in FY2026)." Ah! The Reuters article from June 10, 2026 says: "Oracle plans to raise nearly $40 billion in debt and equity in 2027...". And the tradingkey article says: "To support these massive investments, the company has announced plans to raise a total of $50 billion through debt and equity financing in 2026." Wait, let's see what Oracle's actual Q4 and FY2026 results say. The Oracle investor relations page says: "In fiscal year 2026, Oracle raised $43 billion in debt financing and $5 billion in equity financing." And the Reuters article states: "Oracle on Wednesday forecast capital spending plans for fiscal 2027 above Wall Street estimates, as the ‌cloud computing company said it will also raise nearly $40 billion in debt and equity in 2027...". This is a perfect update for the Oracle watch! Let's record an event on `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` (ID: `019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e`). Since it is an `ongoing` watch, we set `resolves: false`. Let's do that.

Awesome! That's done. Now let's write the updated findings. First, let's update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact as Dell Ships First Vera Rubin NVL72 Rack to CoreWeave). Let's construct the draft body: - Incorporate the $25 billion bond sale (June 15, 2026), its oversubscription ($85 billion in orders), and its strategic role. - Incorporate Jensen Huang's shareholder meeting confirmation (June 26, 2026) that the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture is moving into full-scale production, and his declaration of a "true profitability era" driven by autonomous agents. - Incorporate Micron's blockbuster Q3 results ($41.46B revenue, record 84.9% gross margin) as a key catalyst reinforcing HBM memory demand and the durability of the AI semiconductor supply chain. - Ground in the `/markets/NVDA/2026/07/02` and `/markets/MU/2026/06/29` data. Let's write this note.

Excellent! Now let's update the second note, `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` (Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion and Scale Backlogs Amid Heavy Debt and Widening Losses). Let's see what we should write in this finding: - CoreWeave's updated 2026 capex guidance of **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from prior levels, raised primarily due to component pricing). - CoreWeave's Q1 2026 capex of **$7.70 billion** (negative FCF of -$4.71B) and total debt reaching **$35.15 billion** as of March 31, 2026. - CoreWeave's contracted revenue backlog of **$99.4 billion** at the end of Q1 2026. - Nebius Group's updated 2026 capex guidance of **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from the prior $16B-$20B range) and its Q1 2026 capex of **$2.47 billion**. - Public market performance: CRWV's 28.2% drop over the past month to $85.69, CEO Michael Intrator's $32.87 million stock sale on June 23, 2026, and the securities lawsuit filed against CoreWeave for allegedly overstating its ability to meet customer demand. - Ground in `/markets/CRWV/2026/07/02` and `/markets/NBIS/2026/06/29`. Let's write this note.

Excellent! Now let's update the third note, `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Alphabet Prices Record $85B Capital Raise). Let's see what we should write in this finding: - JPMorgan's midyear outlook (June 25, 2026) raising global AI-related capex to **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from $5.1T). - Hyperscaler capex expected to reach **$650 billion in 2026** and exceed **$1.1 trillion in 2027**, with operating cash flows surpassing $900 billion by 2027. - Amazon's Q1 2026 capex of **$43.2 billion** (primarily AWS and generative AI). - Oracle's Q4 and FY2026 results: FY2026 capital spending reached **$55.66 billion** (surpassing its $50B target), and plans to raise nearly **$40 billion** in debt and equity in FY2027 to expand its AI data center footprint (which has caused some investor concern over growing debt, sinking the stock over 7% post-earnings). - Link to other findings using wikilinks, e.g. `[[nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book]]` and `[[gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment]]`. Let's write this note.

Excellent! All three notes have been successfully written and updated in place, reusing their stable slugs. Let's review if there are any other actions required. 1. `list_threads` was called. 2. Evidence was gathered and confirmed using `web_search`, `web_fetch`, and `market_view`. 3. `write_note` was called for each theme, using stable slugs and carrying verbatim quotes and links to `/markets` views. 4. `record_thread` is for genuinely open questions a future cycle should pursue. We don't have any major new structural open questions that aren't already captured by the extensive list of watches and threads. 5. `resolve_thread` can be called if we resolved any threads. Wait! Let's check the active threads again. - `Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000 commercial availability` (ongoing) - `Qualcomm HBC Gen 1 and AI250 commercial sampling` (ongoing) - `Alphabet Q2 2026 Earnings and Dilution Impact Tracking` (ongoing) - `Alphabet $40B ATM Stock Offering Execution` (ongoing) - `OpenAI Jalapeño chip initial production deployment` (ongoing) - `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` (ongoing) - wait, this is an ongoing watch thread. We recorded an event for it, but did we resolve it? No, it's ongoing so we keep it open. - `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill` (one_shot) - still waiting for her to sign or veto it. - `Google Cloud $920M/month CoreWeave capacity payments commence` (ongoing) - `Anthropic public S-1 filing and IPO debut` (ongoing) - `Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory` (ongoing) - `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release` (ongoing) - `Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing` (ongoing) - `Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026` (ongoing) - `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` (ongoing) - recorded an event but it's ongoing so we keep it open. - `Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026` (ongoing) - `RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch` (ongoing) Since all existing threads are forward-looking watches that have either not fired yet or are ongoing, we will keep them open. We don't need to resolve any threads this cycle. We also don't need to record any new threads because the existing watches and threads perfectly cover the future-looking catalysts (such as Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 earnings, the Vera Rubin platform shipment in H2 2026, CoreWeave's capex, etc.). Let's double-check if we have met all the critical rules: - Every substantive finding must cite at least one real source we consulted this cycle. Yes, we cited Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, and the `/markets` views. - Carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes with their links. Yes, we did. - One finding = one coherent subject tracked under one stable slug. Yes, we updated three existing slugs in place. - To link another finding, use wikilinks `[[its-slug]]`. Yes, we did this in `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` linking to `[[nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book]]` and `[[gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment]]`. Everything looks extremely solid. I am ready to call `finish_cycle`. Let's do that.

I have completed the research cycle on the status of Nvidia's AI capex story. Below is a summary of the findings and updates recorded in this cycle: ### 1. Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact * **Vera Rubin Production:** CEO Jensen Huang confirmed at the June 24, 2026 shareholder meeting that the next-generation **Vera Rubin** architecture (successor to Blackwell) has entered **full-scale production**, de-risking the next leg of product growth. He declared that AI has entered a "true profitability era" driven by autonomous agents. * **$25 Billion Bond Sale:** On June 15, 2026, Nvidia launched its largest-ever debt offering—a **$25 billion high-grade bond sale** across seven tranches. The deal drew **$85 billion in orders** (over 3.4x oversubscribed), demonstrating massive credit market confidence in the longevity of the AI capex cycle. * **Micron's Blockbuster Q3:** Memory partner **Micron Technology (MU)** reported record fiscal Q3 results on June 25, 2026, with **$41.46 billion in revenue** (up 345.7% YoY) and an **84.9% gross margin**, reinforcing the massive, high-visibility demand for HBM memory required by Nvidia's accelerators. * **Note updated:** `[[nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book]]` ### 2. GPU Specialized Clouds Raise Capex Despite Financial and Legal Strain * **CoreWeave Capex Guidance:** **CoreWeave (CRWV)** raised its full-year 2026 capex guidance to **$31 billion to $35 billion** (up from $30B–$35B) due to component pricing, backed by a **$99.4 billion contracted backlog** at the end of Q1 2026. * **Financial Strain:** In Q1 2026, CoreWeave deployed **$7.70 billion in capex**, resulting in a negative quarterly free cash flow of **-$4.71 billion** and a net loss of **-$740.0 million** on $2.08 billion in revenue, with total debt reaching **$35.15 billion** as of March 31, 2026. This has contributed to a 28.2% stock pullback over the past month, alongside a securities class-action lawsuit filed on June 29, 2026. * **Nebius Capex Guidance:** **Nebius Group (NBIS)** raised its 2026 capex guidance to **$20 billion to $25 billion** (up from $16B–$20B) to secure capacity for 2027 workloads, deploying **$2.47 billion in capex** in Q1 2026. * **Note updated:** `[[gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment]]` ### 3. Hyperscaler Spending Escalates to Historic Scales * **JPMorgan Midyear Outlook:** Released on June 25, 2026, JPMorgan raised its estimate for total global AI-related capex to **$5.5 trillion through 2030** (up from $5.1T). It expects hyperscalers' capital expenditures to reach **$650 billion in 2026** and exceed **$1.1 trillion in 2027**, with debt financing rising to **$4.1 trillion**. * **Amazon & Oracle Ramps:** **Amazon (AMZN)** spent an astonishing **$43.2 billion in capex in Q1 2026 alone** to expand AWS and generative AI infrastructure. **Oracle (ORCL)** spent **$55.66 billion in FY2026 capex** and announced plans to raise nearly **$40 billion in debt and equity in FY2027** to fund its massive Stargate data center projects. * **Note updated:** `[[big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026]]` ### 4. Tracking and Watch Events Recorded * **CoreWeave Capex:** Recorded a watch event confirming that CoreWeave's Q1 2026 capex of **$7.70 billion** keeps it on track for its newly raised $31B–$35B full-year guidance. * **Oracle Financing:** Recorded a watch event confirming Oracle's official announcement of its **$40 billion** debt and equity fundraising plan for FY2027.