Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start this cycle by reviewing open threads, existing notes, and pulling the market view for the core memory players.

I have the state: 17 open threads (mostly watches), 15 notes — with four updated very early this morning UTC. Micron's FQ4 earnings land Sept 25 (4 days out), and the Taiwan strike watch is live. Now let me hunt for what's new in the last few days: strike developments, pricing updates, and any supply-expansion signals.

Strong leads: SK Hynix's union approved a revised deal (Sept 16), Micron's Taiwan dispute is escalating toward a formal strike vote, and TrendForce shows DRAM price increases decelerating sharply (90-95% → 58-63% → 13-18% QoQ). Let me confirm the key sources and dig into supply-expansion and HBM4 pricing news.

Excellent material. Now let me fetch the key primary sources: the SemiAnalysis piece on 2027 HBM4 pricing (relevant to my pricing tripwire watch), the Korea Herald on the SK Hynix labor resolution, the Citi capex forecast, and the Taipei Times on Micron's Taiwan dispute.

The SK Hynix labor dispute is resolved (57.1% approval, signing before Chuseok Sept 24) — that resolves an open watch. Micron's Taiwan talks have negotiation rounds scheduled right around today. Now let me get the Citi capex details from a readable source, check HBM4 2027 pricing news, and pull SK Hynix's ADR view.

The Citi report is a goldmine — record capex (+46.5% to $80.4B in 2027) alongside claims the deficit persists to 2031. And there's a report that HBM4 pricing negotiations with Nvidia are "stalled" — directly relevant to my pricing tripwire watch. Let me verify that and the Nvidia BOM pushback before writing.

I have all the evidence I need — resuming the cycle now by writing up the findings. First, the pricing deceleration story and the capex expansion race:

Two notes written. Now the HBM4 negotiation stall, the Micron Taiwan escalation, and the SK Hynix labor resolution:

All findings written. Now recording the watch events — the SK Hynix labor watch has resolved, and the HBM4 buyer-pushback tripwire has fired (negotiations stalled) — plus registering a new tripwire on hyperscaler budget ceilings:

Cycle complete. Here's what this cycle found and persisted: **Five findings updated** (all grounded in sources fetched this cycle): 1. **Pricing deceleration is real** — TrendForce's arc: DRAM contract +93-98% QoQ (Q1) → +58-63% (Q2) → +13-18% forecast (Q3), and Wukong reports Q3 actually settled at +10-15% vs +20-25% expected because hyperscaler budget ceilings bit. Citi's own bull case embeds DRAM ASP +242% (2026) → +23% (2027). First pricing-power cracks in client SSD and eMMC/UFS. 2. **The "everyone adds at once" tell has arrived** — Citi forecasts 2027 memory capex +46.5% to $80.4B (Samsung $20.6B / SK Hynix $17.5B / Micron $15.8B DRAM capex), but supply lands 2028-29 (Yongin June-2029, Indiana Oct-2028, ASML EUV sold out through 2030, even KEPCO grid limits). The market already votes: MU -16.3% off its high at 22.9x P/E, SKHY at 11.4x — classic peak-earnings multiples. 3. **HBM4 2027 negotiations stalled** — suppliers asking ~$2.0 → $3.6-4.0/Gb (near-100% hike); Nvidia pushing back with BOM pressure (memory ~29% of the $2.1M VR200 BOM vs 20% preferred, SoCAMM halved). First hard buyer-resistance evidence. 4. **Micron Taiwan dispute at decision point** — record 35-68-month bonus rejected; union demands permanent 15% of operating profit; talks Sept 18/21, board decides October; 60% of Micron capacity at stake. 5. **SK Hynix labor resolved** — 57.1% approved the 50/50 cash-stock deal; the structural 10%-of-operating-profit-for-10-years mechanism is the template labor now claims across all three suppliers. **Bookkeeping:** resolved the SK Hynix labor watch, logged the HBM4 buyer-pushback tripwire as fired (stays open for the settlement), and registered a new tripwire on hyperscaler procurement volume cuts. Next checkpoints: Micron FQ4 earnings Sept 25 (SCA deposits + margin print), Taiwan negotiation outcome, and the Q4 contract round.

The research cycle is complete. Summary of what was accomplished: **Research findings (5 notes updated):** - **Pricing deceleration** — DRAM contract price increases collapsed from +93-98% QoQ (Q1 2026) to a forecast +13-18% (Q3), with actual Q3 settling at +10-15% vs +20-25% expected — hyperscaler budget ceilings are biting, and pricing power is cracking in client SSD and eMMC/UFS. - **Capex boom tell** — Citi forecasts 2027 memory capex of $80.4B (+46.5% YoY), the classic "everyone adds capacity at once" signal, though supply won't land until 2028-29 (fab lead times, ASML EUV sold out through 2030, Korea's power grid). The market is already applying cycle-peak multiples: MU at 22.9x P/E and -16.3% off its high, SKHY at 11.4x. - **HBM4 negotiations stalled** — suppliers seeking a near-100% price hike ($2.0 → $3.6-4.0/Gb) have hit Nvidia pushback, with memory approaching 29% of the Vera Rubin BOM vs Nvidia's 20% preference. - **Micron Taiwan** — record bonus rejected; strike vote pending after Sept 18/21 talks; 60% of Micron's capacity at stake. - **SK Hynix labor resolved** — 57.1% approved the 50/50 cash-stock deal; the 10%-of-operating-profit structure becomes labor's template industry-wide. **Watch activity:** resolved the SK Hynix labor watch, logged the HBM4 buyer-pushback tripwire as fired (still tracking the settlement), and registered a new hyperscaler budget-ceiling tripwire. **Next checkpoints:** Micron FQ4 earnings Sept 25, the Taiwan strike vote, and the Q4 contract pricing round.