Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing open threads, prior notes, and pulling the market backdrop in parallel.

I have the lay of the land: four ongoing watches (Australia CoreLogic/APRA, Canada Equifax, BOK rate path, Riksbank FSR due Nov 27), five standing notes — two of which (Sweden, Germany) are now 2+ months stale. The macro backdrop shows the key "higher-for-longer" signature: fed funds at 3.63% but the 10-year at 4.94% — the long end pricing well above policy. Let me refresh the stale markets and check central-bank moves.

Good leads: Sweden has cut to 1.75% (a 225bp easing from peak — a divergence from the higher-for-longer thesis), while German state banks are hiking provisions. Let me fetch the substantive sources and check the other central banks.

Strong material. The S&P piece (Sept 16) shows German Landesbanken provisions rising on CRE stress — Helaba's H1 profit halved. BOK hiked to 3.00% Aug 27 (already covered in the Korea note). BoC held at 2.25% Sept 2, but Scotiabank now forecasts hikes to 2.50% by end-2026 — the renewal wave is peaking into a possible renewed hiking cycle. Let me check the Fed's September move, the US CRE refinancing wall, Australia, and get the Riksbank details.

This changes the picture materially: **the Fed HIKED on September 16** (first since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%, with the dot plot signaling 4.00–4.25% by year-end), and the **RBA is expected to hike again September 28-29** to 4.60% after three hikes earlier in 2026. Meanwhile US CRE hard maturities are peaking with 39% landing in Q4. Let me confirm the Fed statement and pull the Sweden and Australia primary sources.

Primary sources confirmed: the Fed's 12-0 hike to 3.75–4.00% with "Inflation remains elevated... The Committee will deliver price stability," and RBA Governor Bullock stating the cash rate is up 75bp this year with "central banks in many other advanced economies... increasing their policy rates" — plus her explicit lag warning. Sweden is the outlier, holding at 1.75% after cutting 225bp from peak. Let me verify the Riksbank's buffer decision, the ECB's stance, Swedish CRE stress, and the BoC statement.

The picture is now decisive: **ECB hiked September 10** (deposit rate to 2.50%, second hike of 2026, energy shock), the Fed hiked September 16, BOK hiked August 27, RBA likely hikes September 29 — the global easing cycle is over. The Riksbank held its countercyclical buffer at 2% while flagging "stigande långräntor" (rising long rates). Swedish CRE names SBB and Balder are the most-shorted European property stocks. Let me verify the BoC statement and find the original European listed-property story.

I have all the evidence needed — completing the cycle now: writing the six findings, then recording the event, watches, and threads, then finishing.

Note 1 saved. The second call was malformed (missing parameters) — rewriting notes 2 and 3 now.

Notes 2 and 3 saved. Now writing the Australia, Sweden, and Canada updates.

Now the Canada update, plus recording the BOK watch event.

All six findings saved and the BOK event recorded. Now registering the forward-looking items: the RBA decision next week, the long-end tripwire, and the two open questions.

Both watches registered. Now the two open questions for future cycles.

The ECB thread registered; the Sweden thread failed on kind validation — retrying as a question.

Everything is persisted. Completing the cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle found: ## The headline: the global easing cycle is over — central banks are hiking again The big structural development for the topic's thesis: **"higher-for-longer" has become "higher-again."** The Fed hiked September 16 (first since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%, 12–0, dot plot signaling 4.00–4.25% by year-end), the ECB hiked September 10 (deposit rate to 2.50%, second 2026 hike), and BOK hiked August 27 (to 3.00%, back-to-back). The RBA is widely expected to hike to 4.60% on September 28–29. Only Sweden is easing (1.75%, 225bp below peak). The 10-year Treasury at 4.94% confirms the long end is pricing the regime — and Bullock's own testimony ("central banks in many other advanced economies are... increasing their policy rates") frames it as a synchronized second shock. ## Six findings written - **[new] Global central-bank re-tightening, autumn 2026** — the macro anchor; country-by-country rate paths with the Fed/ECB/BOK/RBA primary sources - **[new] US CRE maturity wall goes live** — $76.6B of 2026 hard maturities with 39% in Q4; 26.96% of September's cohort below a 6% debt yield (up from 18.13%), and **93% of that impaired balance is still performing** — the hidden pipeline before delinquency data shows it. Office distress hit a record 8.89% in July. Listed REITs (Equinix at 65.8x P/E, Goldman top picks) are pricing the opposite scenario. - **Germany updated** — Landesbanken provisions rising at 3 of 4 banks; Helaba's profit halved and guidance cut; the divergence flag: NPL ratios *falling* while provisions jump - **Australia updated** — +75bp YTD to 4.35% with another hike expected, hitting a market that fell 0.9% in August; Bullock: "the full effects of recent rate increases are yet to be felt" - **Sweden updated** — the easing outlier; households stabilizing but the Riksbank held its 2% countercyclical buffer explicitly citing rising long rates - **Canada updated** — BoC held at 2.25% (7th straight), but Scotiabank now forecasts renewed hikes to 2.50% end-2026 — the renewal wave may peak into a rising-rate floor ## Watchlist and threads - **Recorded:** BOK watch event (hike to 3.00% delivered, watch stays open) - **New watches:** RBA Sept 28–29 decision (one-shot); 10-year Treasury sustaining above 5.25% (ongoing tripwire) - **New threads:** corroborating the unverified Swedish CRE stress signals (SBB/Balder short interest, spread-widening claims that conflict with Riksbank data); whether the ECB's renewed hikes open a eurozone lag leg - Existing watches unchanged: CoreLogic September data due Oct 1, Riksbank FSR due Nov 27