Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing the open threads and prior notes, then pull market data for the core utilities in scope.

I have a rich set of prior findings and 8 open watch threads. Now let me pull the market data for the core entities in the brief — macro backdrop, energy sector, and the key utility/IPPs.

The merchant/IPPs (CEG, VST, TLN) are all down ~35% from 52-week highs despite the AI load story — a notable divergence. Now the regulated names and Entergy (relevant to the Louisiana watch).

The market data reveals a major new development — a pending ~$67B NextEra–Dominion merger — plus a sector-wide de-rate in the AI-power trade (NRG at 52-week low, TLN -28% in 3 months) and public ratepayer anger in Georgia. Let me research these threads.

Strong leads. The PJM 2028/29 auction cleared at the $325/MW-day cap for a third straight time, and the NextEra–Dominion deal is explicitly a data-center cost-allocation story. Let me dig into the IPP selloff driver, the Georgia ratepayer backlash, and the PJM backstop auction.

Now let me fetch the key primary sources — the PA PUC resource adequacy study and the PJM auction results — and check whether the backstop auction results are out yet.

The PJM auction picture is now clear: third straight cap-clearing auction with a growing shortfall, and a September backstop auction at a 71% higher cap. Let me fetch the primary sources to anchor the findings, plus check the ERCOT load-forecast revision (a forecast-vs-contracted divergence data point the brief wants).

I have all the evidence I need — now I'll persist the findings. Writing the first batch of notes: the PJM capacity auction update, the new NextEra–Dominion merger story, and the Georgia OpenAI contract backlash.

First batch saved. Now the second batch: the AI-power equity de-rate, the Louisiana/Meta update, and the Texas interconnection audit.

All six findings are persisted. Now registering the new forward-looking watches this cycle surfaced: the Virginia SCC merger decision, the Georgia PSC elections, and the ERCOT audit completion.

All findings are persisted and watches registered. The cycle is complete — calling finish_cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle surfaced: ## Key findings (6 notes written) **1. PJM 2028/29 auction: third straight cap-clear, shortfall grows** *(updated `pjm-2027-2028-capacity-auction-price-cap`)* — Cleared at the $325/MW-day FERC cap on July 14 with a 6,831 MW shortfall (worse than the prior 6.5 GW), only 525 MW of new supply, and a counterfactual of ~$555/MW-day RTO-wide ($777 in ComEd zone, $29.7B vs $16.4B actual). CEG cleared 18,875 MW (~$2.2B), VST 10,924 MW, TLN 10,180 MW. The September Reliability Backstop auction carries a proposed $555 cap — 71% higher — and PA PUC's consultant found data-center-driven reliability risk ~6x worse than PJM's planning standard. **2. NextEra–Dominion merger is a data-center cost-allocation fight** *(new: `nextera-dominion-merger-virginia-ratepayers`)* — The $67B all-stock deal doubled residential bill credits to 4 years × $10/month, funded mostly by *shifting credits away from data centers* ($2.25B total). SCC decision expected January 2027 amid 800+ mostly-opposed comments and a $13.60/month bill increase already in effect. **3. Georgia's OpenAI deal sparks public wrath** *(updated `georgia-power-large-load-contracting-framework`)* — 3.2 GW / 25-year contract approved; $15/month rate relief pledged from 2029; first PSC meeting outside Atlanta in ~20 years drew heated opposition ahead of November's two-seat PSC election. **4. The AI-power equity trade is de-rating** *(new: `ai-power-trade-derating`)* — CEG -37%, VST -35%, TLN -34%, NRG -43% from highs despite booming load. Why: FERC's collar caps merchant upside, Jefferies expects structural reform toward "materially lower prices," and regulated names run negative FCF (D -$1.2B/q) funding the buildout with debt. **5. Louisiana: LPSC December decision set for Meta's 2.26 GW gas buildout** *(updated `louisiana-ai-data-center-power-boom`)* — plus a 3-1 vote letting Meta keep project records private, and the Cleco/Applied Digital fast-track precedent. **6. Texas froze new data center interconnections** *(new: `texas-ercot-data-center-interconnection-audit`)* — Abbott's Aug 3 moratorium pending an audit of forecast-vs-real load; the 367.8 GW 2032 peak forecast is now in question. **New watches registered:** Virginia SCC merger ruling (Jan 2027), Georgia PSC elections (Nov 3), ERCOT audit/LTLF release (Dec 2026). No existing watches fired this cycle — the FERC IRAS ruling, RBP auction results, and Louisiana LED framework all land in the next several weeks.