Texas Freezes New Data Center Interconnections Pending a State Audit of the Load Forecast
Texas — the fastest-growing data center market in the country — became the first state to hit pause on the AI load boom itself. On August 3, 2026, Gov. Greg Abbott directed the PUCT and ERCOT to conduct a "comprehensive verification and audit" of all data center projects advancing through ERCOT's interconnection process, and imposed a moratorium on new data center interconnections until the audit is complete. Per Gibson Dunn's analysis: "The audit, which ERCOT anticipates will take several months to complete, must occur prior to any additional data center being approved to move forward in the interconnection process." ERCOT told the PUCT it expects the verification to take several months but fewer than nine, and Utility Dive reports the grid operator aims to finish by December 2026.
The audit directly targets the gap between forecast and contracted load — the exact divergence this topic tracks. The moratorium and audit will delay ERCOT's Long-Term Load Forecast (LTLF), originally due mid-August 2026; the preliminary 2026 LTLF projected peak load of 278,003 MW in 2029 and 367,790 MW in 2032 — a forecast so large that ERCOT's own Independent Market Monitor said it "suggests a resource adequacy constraint should be applied to the load interconnection process." The audit covers energy, water, and public-funds usage, and must finish before any additional data center is approved.
This is the demand-side mirror of what Ohio did on the supply side (see American Electric Power Right-Sizes Ohio Data Center Pipeline Under New Tariff Framework, where financial requirements cut AEP Ohio's data center queue ~80%, from ~30 GW to 5.6 GW). If Texas's audit finds that a large share of the forecast is speculative — duplicative projects, unfinanced developers, phantom load — the 367 GW 2032 number that underwrites ERCOT's buildout plans (and the market cap of every Texas-exposed generator) compresses. Watch for the audit's findings and the revised LTLF in December.