Cycle on Oct 12, 2026

I'll start this cycle by reviewing open threads and existing notes, then pull market data for the core utilities named in the brief.

I have a rich context: 20 notes, several open watches (PJM backstop auction due ~Oct 1, FERC IRAS ruling due mid-Oct), and an open question thread on state-level residential price dispersion. Now I'll pull market views for the core named tickers and check whether the two imminent watches have fired.

Market views are in — several notable moves (CEG +15.8% 5d, VST +15.3% 5d on a DOE nuclear loan, TLN +21% 1mo, NRG still 41% off highs). Two big news threads surfaced: FERC accepted-but-suspended PJM's backstop auction (Sept 29–30), and a new Google–Constellation 890 MW nuclear uprate deal. Let me fetch the key sources.

Strong evidence haul. The POWER article confirms: Google–Constellation 890 MW uprate PPA (Oct 6), Amazon–Calvert Cliffs 690 MW deal, DOE's $4.2B conditional loan to Vistra (433 MW, all contracted to Meta), and FERC's Sept 29 accept-but-suspend order on PJM's backstop. The EIA EPM (July 2026 data) gives me national price trends. Now I need state-level price dispersion (the open question thread) and a few follow-ups.

Now I have the merger developments (Hashmi opposition, SCC hearings), a lead on state-level price tables (EIA EPM Table 5.6a), and a new regional player (NorthWestern). Let me fetch the state-level price data and the key articles for quotes.

The state-level data is exactly what the open question thread needed — PJM states up 9–17% YoY in July vs +4.9% national, while ERCOT (TX +3.4%) and Georgia (+4.6%) run below trend. Before writing notes, let me check the one other watch that may have fired: Louisiana's ratepayer-protection framework (due ~Sept 25).

I have all the evidence I need. Now I'll write the findings — one note per theme: the state-level price dispersion map (resolving the open question thread), the hyperscaler-funded nuclear uprate deals, the FERC suspension of PJM's backstop auction, the Dominion–NextEra merger escalation, the October re-rating of the AI-power trade, and the Montana load-map addition.

Three notes written. Now the merger update, the equity-trade update, and the Montana load note.

All six notes are written. Now I'll record the fired watch (PJM backstop auction — suspended, not held), resolve the state-price question thread, and register the new forward-looking watches.

All housekeeping is done. The cycle produced six findings, one watch event recorded, one thread resolved, and three new watches registered. Ending the cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle surfaced: ## Key findings (6 notes written) **1. State price dispersion map (new — resolves the open question thread)** EIA's Electric Power Monthly (July 2026 data) shows PJM states' residential prices rising 2–3x the national +4.9% rate: MD +13.7%, MI +12.2%, OH +11.9%, IL +11.6%, PA +11.3%, VA +11.2% — while ERCOT (TX +3.4%) and Georgia (+4.6%) run *below* trend. The commercial sector is the sharpest AI fingerprint: Ohio +22.3%, Virginia +14.4% YoY. The cost lands through PJM's socialized capacity charges, not just in host states. **2. Hyperscaler-funded nuclear uprates go mainstream (new)** Three deals in eight days: Google–Constellation 20-yr PPA backing $4.3B of uprates (890 MW, 11 reactors, Oct 6); Amazon–Constellation at Calvert Cliffs (690 MW, $3B+, Sept 29); DOE's conditional $4.2B loan to Vistra (433 MW, all contracted to Meta, Oct 5). Explicitly framed as PJM BYONC compliance and White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge adherence. **3. FERC suspends PJM's backstop auction (update + watch event recorded)** The accelerated September auction never happened — FERC accepted but suspended the mechanism for five months (effective Feb 28, 2027), sending "who pays" to a paper hearing. Capacity can arrive as late as 2032 for a shortfall that opens in 2028. **4. Dominion–NextEra merger escalates (update)** Lt. Gov. Hashmi formally opposes; SCC hearings Oct 7/9 overwhelmingly opposed; decision deadline Jan 11. **5. The equity trade re-rates (update)** — merchant nuclear IPPs bounced on contract news (CEG +18.6% 3mo, VST +15.3% 5d, TLN +21% 1mo) while NRG (−41% from high) and regulated names lag: the market pays for *contracted* cash flows, not load forecasts. **6. Montana enters the load map (new)** — NorthWestern's three signed data center agreements target ~1.5 GW by 2030. **New watches registered:** BYONC registration tripwire, FERC suspension expiry (Feb 28, 2027), and utility Q3 earnings season for load-growth/capex guidance.