State Price Map: PJM Residential Rates Rising 2–3x the National Rate; ERCOT and Georgia Below Trend
The state-level dispersion behind the national STEO number (EIA: Residential Electricity Prices Heading for Records as Data Centers Drive Demand) is now measurable from EIA's Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data, released September 24, 2026) — "Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State, July 2026 and 2025." The US residential average was 18.31¢/kWh in July 2026 vs 17.45¢ in July 2025 (+4.9% YoY); year-to-date 2026 residential is 18.19¢ vs 17.01¢ (+6.9%), and all-sector is 14.99¢ vs 14.36¢.
The dispersion is stark, and it maps onto the grid, not onto data center siting:
- PJM states (residential, July YoY): Pennsylvania +11.3% (21.72¢ vs 19.51¢), Maryland +13.7% (21.41¢ vs 18.83¢), Virginia +11.2% (17.55¢ vs 15.78¢), Ohio +11.9% (19.45¢ vs 17.38¢), Illinois +11.6% (19.22¢ vs 17.22¢), Michigan +12.2%, New York +14.0% — all running 2–3x the national +4.9%. New Jersey is the exception at −0.5% (25.19¢ vs 25.32¢), flat after its large June 2025 capacity-cost reset rolled into base rates.
- Below-trend regions: Texas (ERCOT) +3.4% (15.88¢ vs 15.36¢), Georgia +4.6% (16.27¢ vs 15.56¢), Florida −0.5%, California +2.9% (high level, slow growth).
- The commercial sector is the sharpest AI-load fingerprint (EIA counts most data centers as commercial customers): Ohio commercial +22.3% (14.06¢ vs 11.50¢), Maryland +15.7%, Virginia +14.4% (11.68¢ vs 10.21¢), Pennsylvania +9.7% — vs US commercial +3.4% (14.53¢ vs 14.05¢).
A 12-month-average analysis of the same EIA data by startbusinessbystate.com (published September 2026) confirms the pattern: US home prices 18.01¢ (+6.7% YoY, +25.7% since 2022); commercial prices rose fastest in DC (+20.8%), Ohio (+20.3%) and Virginia (+20.0%) over the past year; Virginia commercial electricity use is up 62.8% since 2019. Its summary:
"Commercial prices rose 20.3% in Ohio and 20.0% in Virginia in the past year. Only DC (20.8%) rose more."
"The biggest home price increases were mostly somewhere else. Since 2022, home prices rose most in District of Columbia (77.4%), Maryland (59.2%), New Jersey (43.5%), Maine (42.1%) and Pennsylvania (40.7%)… Several of these places share a regional grid with Virginia and Ohio, and data center demand there can raise costs across the whole region."
Two nuances for the exposure map. First, the cost lands through PJM's socialized capacity/transmission charges, not just in host states — the market monitor's ~$23.1B attribution of auction costs to data-center load (PJM's Market Monitor Puts a Number on It: Data Centers = 46% of the Last Four Capacity Auctions' Cost) is shared across all 13 states + DC, which is why Maryland (+13.7%) and Pennsylvania (+11.3%) lead despite hosting fewer data centers than Virginia. Second, the simple cross-state correlation runs negative (home prices −0.34, business prices −0.62 vs commercial-use growth since 2019) — consistent with Quantitative Evidence Refutes Systematic Data Center Ratepayer Subsidies: data centers locate where power is cheap (Texas business prices +0.4% YoY), and the damage shows up years later through regional capacity markets and rate cases, not instantly in the host state's average.
Investable read: the "cost lands here" map for residential bills is PJM (MD, PA, OH, VA, IL, MI), plus New England's separate supply problem (NH +16.7%, ME +15.8% — not AI-driven); ERCOT and the Southeast (GA, FL) remain below trend, so far, thanks to their own resource-addition models and large-load tariffs (American Electric Power Right-Sizes Ohio Data Center Pipeline Under New Tariff Framework, Georgia Power's Google Nuclear-Uprate Deal: Hyperscalers Pay for Utility Generation Under a New Tariff Class).