Cycle on Sep 21, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then gather fresh evidence on where markets stand as of late September 2026.

I have a clear picture of the topic state. Key items this cycle: 1. **FOMC decision (Sep 15–16)** — the September rate decision was 5 days ago; the watch needs resolving with what actually happened. 2. **Nasdaq-100 rebalancing (today, Sep 21)** — SpaceX weight increase and estimated $15.5B passive inflows; this fires today. 3. **Micron Q4 FY2026 ($50B guidance)** — check if it reported. 4. General market state — last notes were updated Sep 14, so the past week needs coverage. Let me search for the FOMC outcome, the rebalancing, and Micron in parallel.

Major developments confirmed: the Fed **hiked 25bps to 3.75%–4.00%** on Sep 16 (unanimous, first hike since 2023), the Nasdaq-100 rebalance **doubles SpaceX's weight to 2.82%** today, and Micron reports **Sep 30** (watch stays open). Let me read the primary sources on the Fed decision and the market reaction.

The Fed picture is rich: unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, dot plot signaling another hike, and Warsh's "dose of accommodation" framing spiking rate-hike expectations. Now let me get the market reaction details and the SpaceX rebalance specifics.

Rich detail. The rebalance executed at Friday's closing cross ($15.5B–$22B estimated, weight to 2.82%), and SPCX actually **slipped 1.36% on rebalance day** — echoing July's "sell-the-news" pattern. Let me now get the post-FOMC AI/chip rebound story and the oil/Iran state of play.

I have all the evidence I need except one confirmation for the Micron pre-earnings state — let me fetch that source, then write up the findings.

Writing the findings now. First batch: the FOMC outcome (updating the Warsh Fed note) and the SpaceX rebalance result (updating the SPCX note).

Both notes saved. Now the second batch: the oil/Iran de-escalation, the AI capex/memory supercycle update, and the Micron pre-earnings state.

All five findings are persisted. Now recording the watch events that fired this cycle (FOMC hike, Nasdaq-100 rebalance, Iran de-escalation) and registering the October FOMC as the next dated catalyst.

The cycle is complete. All findings are persisted, watches are reconciled, and the next catalyst is registered.

Cycle complete. Here's what this research cycle found for the week of Sep 15–21, 2026: ## Key developments **1. The Fed hiked — and framed it open-endedly.** The FOMC voted 12-0 on Sep 16 to raise rates 25bps to **3.75%–4.00%**, the first hike since 2023. The real story for investors was Warsh's framing: the hike removes only "a dose of accommodation," and he explicitly rejected the neutral-rate benchmark — implying the number of remaining hikes has no defined ceiling. Goldman added an October hike, BofA expects Oct + Dec, and futures imply ~4.635% by end-2027 (3–4 more hikes). First cuts aren't penciled until 2028. **2. SpaceX's big index event came and went — with a fade.** The Nasdaq-100 rebalance more than doubled SPCX's weight (1.28% → 2.82%, above the 2.25% estimate), forcing an estimated $15.5–22B of passive buying at Friday's closing cross. The stock still closed **down 1.36% at $152.71** on cross day — a partial repeat of July 7's sell-the-news pattern. The next structural test: 2.3B+ shares unlock late Oct/mid-Nov. **3. Oil's risk premium is deflating.** Brent fell back below $102 (from a $110.04 peak) as Saudi Arabia rerouted exports through Hormuz and Qatar-mediated US–Iran talks re-emerged around UNGA. Easing oil is one reason chips led the post-FOMC rebound. **4. The AI/memory supercycle keeps hardening.** Nvidia's CFO called memory pricing "extreme"; SK Hynix sees no supply balance until 2030; SoftBank is now debt-funding its OpenAI stake ($11B bond issue). Micron reports Sep 30 against a $50B revenue guide at ~6.6x forward earnings. ## Bookkeeping - **Resolved 2 watches** (FOMC decision, Nasdaq-100 rebalance), logged the Iran de-escalation on the ongoing Hormuz watch - **Updated 5 findings**: Warsh Fed regime, SPCX trajectory, Iran/oil, AI capex indicators, Micron - **New watch registered**: October FOMC decision (~Oct 28) — the first test of whether the "dose of accommodation" path continues