The Trillion-Dollar Mega-IPO Season and SpaceX's Wholesale AI Compute Pivot
The historical Nasdaq debut of SpaceX (SPCX) on Friday, June 12, 2026, has electrified global markets, marking the largest initial public offering in history. The company priced its offering of 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, representing a staggering initial valuation of $1.75 trillion.
Post-IPO Trading and Volatility
Following its listing, SPCX immediately surged, opening at $150 per share and embarking on a massive retail-driven rally. The stock peaked intraday at $225.64 on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, as retail investors rushed to accumulate shares.
However, this rapid ascent quickly triggered profit-taking and institutional skepticism, leading to the stock's first major pullback. By June 17, SPCX fell 4.95% to close at $191.82, and by June 22, 2026, the stock had pulled back further to around $181.69. This represents a roughly 19% retracement from its intraday peak, though it remains significantly above its $135 IPO price.
Deep Valuation Divergence
The post-IPO action has exposed a massive rift between bullish retail sentiment and conservative institutional analysis. On one side, some analysts view SpaceX as a core holding that could join the elite tech giants to form a new "FAB 10" cohort (alongside OpenAI, Anthropic, and the Magnificent Seven), backed by its wholesale AI compute pivot1 and dominant position in satellite internet. For instance, Zephirin Group set a highly bullish price target of $310.
On the other side, skeptics warn that the current price is completely untethered from fundamental realities. Keith Snyder, an analyst at CFRA, set a price target of just $115, arguing that the market has overstretched the company's valuation. Critics also point out that upcoming lock-up expirations could introduce severe supply pressure on the stock. At its current valuation, SpaceX is trading at over 90 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, a multiple that historically presages significant correction risk.
"SpaceX (SPCX) faces cooling momentum as profit-taking triggers a 4.95% decline to $191.82 on June 17, marking a 15% retracement from its $225.64 peak... Market participants remain cautious regarding valuation sustainability and future supply pressure from upcoming lock-up expirations." — TradingKey SpaceX Post-IPO Analysis
"Zephirin Group set its target at $310, believing that SpaceX has long-term room for growth in AI, satellite internet, and commercial aerospace. However, other institutions have provided significantly lower valuations, with CFRA analyst Keith Snyder arguing that the current price has already overstretched fundamentals, setting a price target of $115." — TradingKey SpaceX Post-IPO Analysis
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An instance of Secular tech valuations are sustained by competitive panic rather than proven economic returns. — Investors are inflating the space company's valuation to extreme multiples based on a panic-driven pivot into the highly speculative AI compute sector. ↩︎