Cycle on Oct 5, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing open threads and existing notes, then gather fresh evidence on the GLP-1 space.

The last cycle ran September 28, 2026; today is October 5. I'll check the open watches (Novo v. Lilly injunction ruling, MDL-3094 Daubert ruling, CagriSema FDA decision are all near-term) and scan the past week's news. Running several searches in parallel:

Good initial haul. Key leads: a Novo–Hengrui deal (up to $2.6B), the Oct 2 Fierce oral GLP-1 tracker update, EASD 2026 data from both majors, and I still need to check the two legal watches (Novo v. Lilly injunction, MDL-3094 Daubert). Fetching the top stories now:

Strong leads. The Novo–Hengrui deal (Sept 29) and EASD 2026 data (EloraTZP 23.3%, CagriSema 22.4%) are the big new items. Now I need to check the two legal watches (Novo v. Lilly injunction ruling, MDL-3094 Daubert ruling) and get the EASD synthesis:

The picture is filling in: MDL-3094's Daubert hearing ended with **no ruling yet**, and the Novo v. Lilly injunction (heard Aug 27) also shows no reported ruling — both watches stay open. EASD 2026 was the week's big event. Let me verify three more sources I'll cite (Fierce tracker, TIME, STAT):

TIME gave me rich EASD detail including the petrelintide Lancet data and expert quotes. The Fierce fetch timed out — retrying, along with the STAT marketing piece:

All sources confirmed. Now I'll write the findings. First batch: the oral GLP-1 race update, the EASD 2026 amylin data wave, and the Novo strategic-reset update (Hengrui deal):

First note saved. The second call went out empty — writing the EASD 2026 note and the Novo strategic-reset update now:

Two more saved. Now the litigation status update, the STAT lifestyle-marketing note, and a new watch for EloraTZP's Phase 3:

All findings are written and the new watch is registered. Neither legal watch fired this cycle (no Daubert ruling, no injunction ruling reported), and the CagriSema FDA decision and Q3 earnings remain ahead — those watches stay open. Completing the cycle:

Research cycle complete. Here's what this week (Sept 28 – Oct 5, 2026) surfaced for the GLP-1 watch: ## Key findings written this cycle 1. **EASD 2026: the amylin era arrives** *(new finding)* — Lilly's EloraTZP (eloralintide + Zepbound) hit **23.3% weight loss / 2.9% A1C cut** in Phase 2b, beating tirzepatide alone (14.8%) and, cross-trial, retatrutide and CagriSema. Novo countered with CagriSema at 22.4% at one year, "food noise" fMRI brain data, and real-world evidence that switching from shot to Wegovy pill adds another 4.1% weight loss. Zealand's petrelintide (Lancet) showed placebo-like tolerability at 10% weight loss — analysts see amylins as a primary-care, "softer" first-line option. Leerink forecasts **$23B for eloralintide by 2035**. 2. **Oral GLP-1 race inflects toward Lilly** *(updated)* — Foundayo weekly scripts jumped **+21% to 64,268** while Novo's Wegovy pill stalled at ~182K for five straight weeks; Lilly now holds 26% of the oral market, helped by the Martha Stewart ad, $149 entry pricing, and the Medicare Bridge. Zepbound: 805.7K weekly scripts. 3. **Novo's buying spree continues** *(updated)* — the **$2.6B Hengrui deal** (HRS-1596, once-weekly oral GLP-1/GIP, "Phase 1 ready") is the fourth recent pipeline acquisition — optionality, but nothing that helps the 2027–2029 P&L. 4. **Litigation overhang in limbo** *(updated)* — MDL-3094's Daubert hearing ended Sept 18 with **no ruling yet** (4,022 cases waiting); the Novo v. Lilly ad-injunction ruling (argued Aug 27) is also still pending. Both watches remain open. 5. **Lifestyle-drug repositioning** *(new finding)* — STAT reports Novo now markets Wegovy as a "weight loss" drug for "customers" ("Live lighter," "Summer Glow Up") — market-broadening, but a long-term tension with payer coverage. **New watch registered:** EloraTZP Phase 3 initiation (expected before year-end 2026). Next major catalysts: **CagriSema FDA decision (~Nov 15)** and **Q3 earnings for both majors (early November)**.