Cycle on Sep 28, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by reviewing existing threads and notes, then gather the latest GLP-1 developments.

I have a clear picture of open threads. This cycle should cover the week since Sep 21, including the Novo CMD digestion (an open question thread), the imminent Viking VK2735 Phase 1 data watch, and any Daubert ruling in MDL-3094. Let me search for the latest developments.

Strong leads. Let me fetch the key articles on the Novo CMD and the Lilly/Novo competitive picture, and check the imminent watches (Viking VK2735 Phase 1 data, MDL-3094 Daubert ruling).

Key developments confirmed: Novo's CMD details and Viking's VK2735 maintenance data (which fires an open watch). Now let me check the other open watches: the MDL-3094 Daubert ruling, the Novo v. Lilly injunction decision, and CagriSema FDA timing.

MDL-3094's Daubert hearing concluded Sep 18 but no ruling is out yet — that watch stays open. Let me check the injunction ruling, CagriSema FDA timing, and the Medicare Bridge update.

No injunction ruling or CagriSema PDUFA date yet — those watches stay open. Now let me fetch the Medicare Bridge update (Lilly touts 70% share, 700K seniors) and the Viking market reaction article.

I have strong evidence for four themes. Let me quickly check the last imminent watch (zenagamtide/petrelintide Phase 3 initiations, due ~Oct 1), then write up findings.

Petrelintide's Phase 3 ZUPREME program started Sep 22 — that fires part of an open watch. Let me fetch the Zealand press release and the Morningstar analyst reaction to confirm before writing.

All evidence confirmed. Now I'll write the five findings — updating existing subject slugs rather than minting new ones.

Missing parameters — retrying with topic_id and slug included.

Note 1 saved. Now writing the remaining four findings in parallel.

All five findings are saved. Now recording the watch events, resolving the CMD question thread, and registering new forward-looking watches.

Everything is recorded. Wrapping up the cycle.

Research cycle complete. Here's what this cycle (Sep 21–28, 2026) surfaced for the GLP-1 watch: ## Key findings (5 notes updated) 1. **Novo CMD verdict — skepticism deepens** (`novo-doustdar-strategic-reset`): Novo's Sep 21 Capital Markets Day pitched mid-single-digit growth through 2030, 5+ "multi-blockbusters," and DKK 150B in 2035 pipeline sales. Shares fell 8% anyway. CagriSema's head-to-head win over Zepbound in T2D came with an asterisk (vs. tirzepatide's second-lowest dose). Morningstar cut its fair value to DKK 275 and ranks zenagamtide (2029) above CagriSema (2027). This resolved the open CMD-digestion question thread. 2. **Viking's VK2735 maintenance data is a genuine differentiator** (`viking-therapeutics-vktx-ma-target-oral-vk2735-2026`): 90–97% of weight loss retained on monthly/biweekly dosing, ~22% placebo-adjusted loss at week 33 with no plateau, GI side effects at placebo levels. Shares +36%. This fired and closed the 3Q26 data watch — a "monthly maintenance" category would be the first real answer to GLP-1 discontinuation rates. 3. **Medicare Bridge at 700K seniors, Lilly taking 70%** (`medicare-glp1-bridge-50-dollar-coverage`): At $245/month net, Jefferies pegs Lilly at $1.4B annualized now, $3–3.5B run-rate exiting 2026. Ricks calls it "very market-expansionary." 4. **Oral race: both pills at record scripts, but mix shifts to Lilly** (`oral-glp1-market-competition-lilly-novo`): Wegovy pill ~181K weekly scripts, Foundayo ~44K (both records); Foundayo now 1-in-3 new oral starts; tirzepatide at 57% of the total GLP-1 market vs. semaglutide's flat 37%. 5. **Zealand/Roche started petrelintide Phase 3** (`zealand-petrelintide-phase2-zupreme-ada-2026`): 3 trials, ~7,000 participants, week-64 endpoint — the first pure-amylin registrational program. ## Watch housekeeping - **Fired/closed:** Viking VK2735 maintenance (positive); petrelintide Phase 3 start (zenagamtide half split into a new standalone watch). - **Checked, still open:** MDL-3094 Daubert ruling (hearing ended Sep 18, no opinion yet), Novo v. Lilly injunction, CagriSema FDA decision (Q4), Jan 2027 price cuts, Foundayo sNDA, Viking oral Phase 3, NICE. - **New:** ongoing watch for LLY/NVO Q3 earnings in early November to track the Medicare run-rate and Foundayo ramp.