Strait of Hormuz: US Claims Passage is "Open" Amid Tracker Skepticism, Iran and Oman Sign Revenue-Sharing Deal
The geopolitical and military battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz has entered a highly contested phase of competing narratives, unilateral military actions, and parallel diplomatic tracks. While the Trump administration and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) claim to have broken Iran's blockade and restored high-volume oil flows through the waterway, independent energy trackers remain deeply skeptical. Concurrently, Iran and Oman have bypassed Washington by signing an agreement to share transit revenues1, while Tehran's security chief has formalized a strict list of demands for fully reopening the strait.
The U.S. Narrative: "That Sucker is Open"
Following the collapse of the June 17, 2026, Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) ceasefire, the U.S. military embarked on a unilateral campaign to reopen the strait. This effort included a two-week bombing campaign against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assets, a restored blockade of Iranian ports, and a massive mine-sweeping operation.
On August 27, 2026, President Donald Trump declared the operation a definitive success, telling Axios in an interview:
"That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don't want us to go back at them. That's the whole ball game. The rest doesn't matter."
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper echoed this sentiment in a public video, announcing that the main international shipping lanes through the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) are entirely clear of the naval mines deployed by the late IRGC Navy General Alireza Tangsiri:
"We achieved a major milestone in the Strait of Hormuz. Internationally recognized sea routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines. Bottom line: Today international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building."
According to U.S. officials, a military task force is guiding 20 to 30 tankers nightly through the southern channel of the strait under UAE and U.S. air cover2, shipping an average of 9 to 10 million barrels of oil per day—roughly half of pre-war volumes.
Tracker Skepticism and the "Shadow" Transit Reality
Independent energy experts and commercial ship trackers have raised serious doubts about the Trump administration's optimistic figures. While Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed that a single-day peak surpassed 15 million barrels, independent counts of crude oil and refined products loaded in the Persian Gulf suggest a much lower volume.
Commercial tracking firms estimate that actual transit volumes range between 2 million and 6 million barrels per day. Much of this discrepancy is attributed to a highly dangerous operational reality: to evade Iranian radar, GPS jamming, and missile attacks, major commercial tankers are transiting the strait at night with their transponders completely switched off. Despite U.S. security guarantees, tankers continue to face periodic projectile strikes, keeping maritime insurance premiums at historic highs.
The Iran-Oman Revenue-Sharing Agreement
As the U.S. attempts to cement its control over the southern shipping lanes, Tehran and Muscat have moved to codify their own joint administrative control over the waterway. On Wednesday, August 26, 2026, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi announced a formal bilateral agreement to share transit fees collected from commercial vessels:
"Agreements have been reached regarding each country's share of the strait's waters as well as Iran and Oman's share of its revenues."
Under the agreement, "authorized" ships transiting the strait will be charged fees by Iran and Oman to cover maritime services, environmental protection, fuel supply, and safety. This agreement effectively bypasses the U.S. military presence and establishes a legalistic, regional framework designed to permanently institutionalize Iranian toll-collection authority over the chokepoint.
Rezaei Defines Iran's Price for Reopening
Despite Trump's public assertion on Truth Social that he has no interest in meeting with Iranian officials ("I don't want to meet, they do"), backchannel mediation remains highly active. Late August saw a flurry of diplomatic visits to Tehran, including the commander of the Pakistani army, the Omani Foreign Minister, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.
In response to these mediators, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, confirmed that Tehran is drafting a formal list of demands that the United States must meet before Iran will allow the full, unrestricted use of a designated central shipping channel. Rezaei set out four core conditions for a new memorandum of understanding:
- An end to regional wars (specifically halting conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon).
- Lifting the blockade of Iranian ports.
- Financial compensation for war damages.
- Comprehensive sanctions relief.
Rezaei warned that until these conditions are met, the waterway remains closed to unauthorized traffic:
"The Strait of Hormuz is closed, despite American claims, and will not open until America corrects its behaviour."
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An instance of A temporary ceasefire collapses the moment host states codify transit tolls into statutory law. — Iran and Oman bypassed the U.S. naval presence by signing a bilateral agreement that codifies and shares transit fees from the waterway. ↩︎
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An instance of Superpower naval escorts strip localized maritime blockades of their strategic leverage. — The U.S. military's night-time convoy escort operations under task force protection demonstrate how superpower intervention can bypass and neutralize a localized maritime blockade. ↩︎