Novo Nordisk Kills Two More Ziltivekimab Phase 3 Trials (HERMES, ATHENA) as IL-6 Program Collapses Ahead of Capital Markets Day

Novo Nordisk Kills Two More Ziltivekimab Phase 3 Trials (HERMES, ATHENA) as IL-6 Program Collapses Ahead of Capital Markets Day

On September 8, 2026, Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) terminated two additional Phase 3 heart failure studies of its IL-6 inhibitor ziltivekimab — HERMES and ATHENA — following the earlier ZEUS trial failure. Per reporting surfaced in the NVO market view: "Novo Nordisk has terminated two additional Phase 3 heart failure studies, HERMES and ATHENA, for its IL-6 inhibitor ziltivekimab, following a previous failure in the ZEUS trial¹" — with the withdrawal indicating IL-6 is an "invalid target" for cardiovascular outcomes (/markets/NVO/2026/09/21).

The collapse of the cardiovascular diversification leg compounds Novo's competitive pressure heading into its September 21 capital markets day in London. Reuters tied the two directly:

"Novo suffered a major setback after halting trials of its experimental heart drug, ziltivekimab. This compounded concerns about Novo's long-term sales growth as the clock ticks down on patent protection." — Reuters, Sept 21, 2026

Wall Street has turned. Morgan Stanley downgraded NVO to Sell on September 12, "citing potential market share losses to Eli Lilly's rival offerings over the next 18 months" plus the patent cliff (/markets/NVO/2026/09/21). Reuters' CMD preview quantified the gap: "Novo's share price has plunged by more than 70% since its peak, while Lilly's has surged. Sales of the US drugmaker's rival Zepbound treatment are expected to outpace Wegovy this year by more than $7 billion, LSEG data shows." Novo's August guidance raise still implies decline: "Novo raised its sales and operating profit growth targets in August to between zero and minus 6% at constant exchange rates versus 2025, up from a previous range of minus 4% to minus 12%."

Investors want a "third leg." Union Investment's Markus Manns: "They should work harder in building a third leg ... because in diabetes and obesity, they won't find enough growth opportunities." Morningstar's Karen Andersen urged prioritizing zenagamtide over CagriSema; analysts expect management to signal appetite for bolt-on M&A (Doustdar told the FT he would "not shy away" from deals larger than Pfizer's $10B Metsera buy).

Counterpoints this month (/markets/NVO/2026/09/21): Wegovy won Chinese approval for MASH (Sept 10) — the first GLP-1 RA approved for that indication in China — and the Phase 3 Step Young pediatric trial showed 40.4% of children no longer classified with obesity after 68 weeks (Sept 8).

Market anchor: NVO closed at $43.24 (P/E 10.73, ~$191B market cap), -29.2% off its 52-week high, earnings -20.6% YoY, with quarterly revenue sequentially decelerating ($78.49B in Q2 vs $96.82B in Q1).

What it means: With ziltivekimab gone, Novo's post-2030 semaglutide-cliff story rests almost entirely on obesity/diabetes execution — CagriSema rehabilitation, zenagamtide, and oral Wegovy scale-up — while the CMD (today) is the venue to reset the narrative. The commercial pressure from Lilly is documented in Oral GLP-1 Battle Flips: Foundayo Surges 21% to 64K Weekly Scripts While Wegovy Pill Stalls at ~182K and the pricing reset in Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Reaches 700K Seniors at $50 Copay; Lilly Cuts Foundayo Starter Doses to $149.