Hormuz Watch (Oct 10): Iran Reviewing US Response to 7-Day Hormuz-Reopening Proposal — Trump: "Productive" Talks, No Attack Before Midterms — While Houthi Strikes Hit Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura and Jeddah
Update (Oct 9–11): The diplomatic track is live but deliberately unurgent. Per Reuters, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Thursday (via Tasnim) that "Tehran is reviewing the US response to its proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days." Trump, at a San Antonio rally Wednesday, called the indirect talks "productive" and pledged "no attack" before the Nov 3 midterms — while separately telling reporters he doesn't "really want" a peace deal, and insisting on Truth Social that he "offered them nothing!" The US simultaneously imposed new sanctions on "individuals, networks and 17 vessels for transporting Iranian crude, oil products and petrochemicals." A third tanker in two days was struck near Hormuz earlier in the week (Iran International, Oct 5).
The bigger escalation is the second front: Houthi ballistic-missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Satellite imagery confirmed by Oct 5 showed a large fire at an Aramco refinery near Riyadh with at least three storage tanks burning — the attack that pushed Brent back above $100 ($103.06 early Oct 5). Fresh strikes followed on Aramco's Ras Tanura complex — a 550K b/d refinery and one of the world's largest crude export terminals — and the Jeddah refinery, with another explosion reported at Jeddah as late as Saturday. Saudi Arabia called the attacks "cowardly terrorist attacks."
What it means: the two tracks now work against each other. Every headline about a Hormuz deal-in-progress leans on crude prices (Brent still settled $104.72 Friday, +0.42% — see COLA Day: 3.6% for 2027 — Largest Since 2023 but Below the CPI-W's 3.9% — as Gas Logs a Record 158 Days Above $4 and the IEA Says Diesel Stays Tight "Well Into 2027"); every Houthi strike on Saudi export infrastructure adds a war premium that no Hormuz proposal covers. With Trump publicly in no hurry ("no attack before the midterms," a deal he doesn't "really want"), the base case is a frozen conflict that keeps Brent >$100 and diesel >$6 through the election — with the US-Russia diesel deal (Russian Diesel Deal Under Fire: Bipartisan Senators Demand Reversal, Trump Dismisses Critics — 300K Tons Equals "About 12 Hours of Global Consumption" While Diesel Stays at $6.28) as the administration's substitute for de-escalation.