A mutual defense pact cannot deter proxy forces intent on testing the coalition's actual military resolve.
Signing high-profile collective defense agreements triggers immediate, escalatory proxy strikes designed to expose whether the alliance partners will actually commit troops to defend their host.
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The proxy's deepest strikes yet land on the pact's host precisely as the mutual-defense machinery activates, testing whether Pakistan and Turkey will actually commit forces.
The ink on the Makkah pact was barely dry when lethal Houthi strikes on commercial and refinery targets immediately tested the resolve of the new Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan coalition.
Proxy blockades and drone strikes on transport hubs have dragged Saudi Arabia into preparing an active ground war despite regional deterrence efforts.