Cycle on Sep 11, 2026

I will start by listing the open threads for this topic to understand what specific questions or watches need to be addressed or monitored.

I will fetch the current public-market view for NVIDIA Corporation (ticker: NVDA) to get a baseline on its valuation, revenues, gross margins, and recent performance.

I will now read the prior notes to see what was previously captured about Nvidia's capex story, its financing programs (like NeoCloud or the $500B Wall Street platform), and its customers' capex trajectory. This will help me understand the context and update the correct notes.

I will search for any recent news or developments on Nvidia's AI capex story, specifically around the hyperscaler capex, demand trends, hardware sales, Blackwell/Rubin updates, or any signs of changes in the AI infrastructure capex trajectory. I will search for articles in the last week/month or general recent news about Nvidia's capex, hyperscaler capex, and the status of Nvidia's demand/supply. Let's do a web search.

This is extremely interesting. Let's look at the PDF document about `Bottlenecks to Scaling AI Computational Power / JUN 2026`. This document is from MUFG Americas. It contains details about: - Nvidia's circular AI deals, - "World's Most Complex Piece of Hardware: NVIDIA's Rubin GPU" which mentions 336 billion transistors per GPU, 5x the AI performance of Blackwell, nearly triple memory bandwidth (22 TB/s), NVL72 rack-scale system delivering 3.6 EFLOPS (5x Blackwell), 2,300 watts of power consumption, and expected release date of Q4 2026 / Q1 2027. Wait, is this the Rubin GPU? Let's search more about this MUFG report or general reports about Nvidia's capex, circular financing, and whether the capex story is intact. Let's also do a search on: - "Nvidia circular financing" OR "Nvidia circular AI deals" OR "Nvidia circular" - "Nvidia NeoCloud revenue-sharing" - "Nvidia $500 billion Wall Street" - "Nvidia $105 billion OpenAI" - "Nvidia capex story" or "Nvidia capex intact" or "Nvidia capex 2026" Let's run a web search to see what is happening in the news recently (around September 2026).

Let's fetch some of these highly relevant URLs to understand the current state of Nvidia's circular financing, the $105B OpenAI deal, the $500B Wall Street compute platform, and how the "AI capex story" is holding up. First, let's look at: - `https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nvidia-brushes-off-circular-financing-021004579.html` - `https://www.ft.com/content/33714af0-a646-4271-8078-49a87182917f?syn-25a6b1a6=1` (Wait, this is FT, let's see if we can fetch it, or Bloomberg `https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-circular-deals/` or Axios `https://www.axios.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-openai-financing-ai-jensen-huang-ssi`) - `https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia-coreweave-nebius-circular-financing-gpu-boom` Let's do a web fetch on the Yahoo Finance / Markets article, and also search for more recent developments on these circular deals. Let's do a web search first or fetch. Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance article first.

This is a goldmine of information! Let's analyze the numbers: - Nvidia reported Q2 FY2027 (ended July 31, 2026) revenue of $96.22 billion (Yahoo says $96.2 billion) and adjusted net income of $2.22 per share. - Nvidia's data center division contributed $89 billion of that revenue. - For Q3 FY2027, Nvidia expects revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and adjusted gross margins of ~74%. - Nvidia's CFO Colette Kress states that Nvidia has "invested or committed nearly $50 billion in frontier AI labs" (Yahoo says "Nvidia has committed nearly $50 billion to frontier AI labs" or "invested or committed nearly $50 billion"). Wait, the prior note mentions "$164.5 Billion in Financial Guarantees" or "$105 billion OpenAI deal". Let's search about this discrepancy or details about Nvidia's guarantees and the OpenAI deal. - Let's look at the $500 billion Wall Street platform. Yahoo says: "The chipmaker is also working with six major infrastructure capital providers — Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR — to unlock $500 billion in financing support to companies looking to buy Nvidia chips." This is the $500 billion Wall Street platform. - Nvidia guides to "70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth forecast". Let's do a search on Bloomberg's "A Guide to the Circular Deals Underpinning the AI Boom" and "Nvidia $105 billion OpenAI" to see if there are more details. Let's search for "Nvidia" "OpenAI" "$105 billion" OR "105B" and see what comes up.

This is perfect. We see a major update to the OpenAI data center deal: - Nvidia finalized a deal to provide **up to $105 billion in guarantees** to help OpenAI lease a sprawling data center in Pike County, Ohio, developed by SoftBank-backed SB Energy (at the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus). - Nvidia is investing **$1.5 billion directly in SB Energy**, joining SoftBank Group and OpenAI. - This is a downsizing of the originally planned $250 billion guarantee reported earlier (Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia downsized plans for a $250 billion guarantee to less than $120 billion, finalizing at $105 billion). - Under the agreement, SB Energy will build, own, and operate the data center, and OpenAI will lease it for 20 years. Nvidia will be the exclusive AI compute infrastructure provider. - Reuters notes: "Overall, Nvidia could make $600 billion in revenue from OpenAI by 2030 by selling it 16 gigawatts of computing power, including an expansion of the Ohio site by 3.75 gigawatts." - The data center is expected to deploy approximately 1.5 million Nvidia GPUs. Let's do a search on the $36 billion NeoCloud program. Is there any news on the "Nvidia NeoCloud revenue-sharing and credit-support program" or "NeoCloud"? Let's do a search.

Let's search for "NeoCloud revenue-sharing" or "NeoCloud program" specifically to see if there is any other mention. Wait, let's search for "NeoCloud" or "neocloud" and "Nvidia" and "revenue-sharing" or "program". Let's do a search on: - `"NeoCloud" "Nvidia" "revenue-sharing"` - `"NeoCloud" "Nvidia" "36 billion"` or `"36B"` - `"NeoCloud"` AND `"Nvidia"` AND (`cancel` OR `revamp` OR `resume` OR `Wall Street`) Let's do a web search.

This is incredibly relevant. Let's look at this TipRanks article: - "Neocloud Stocks Fall as Nvidia Shelves Revenue-Sharing Deals — Here’s Why" - "Nvidia has decided to put on hold its revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud companies announced on July 1." - "The chipmaker in its quarterly filing this week said commitments under the program totaled $36 billion and typically last six years." - "According to The Wall Street Journal, Nvidia shelved the plan last week. In return, Nvidia got a share of product and cloud revenue. This refers to the chipmaker providing credit support to AI firms that buy its chips." Let's fetch this TipRanks article to get all the details and exact quotes. And let's search for "Nvidia pauses revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud companies" to get more background and the exact date or reasons. Let's do a web fetch on `https://www.tipranks.com/news/neocloud-stocks-fall-as-nvidia-shelves-revenue-sharing-deals-heres-why` first.

This is amazing. Let's look at this! Nvidia has shelved/paused its revenue-sharing deals under the "AI Compute Partnership" (announced on July 1, 2026). - Commitments under the program totaled **$36 billion** and typically last six years. - The plan involved Nvidia providing **credit support** to AI cloud firms (like Sharon AI and Firmus, which were the first two partners), and in return, Nvidia took a share of product and cloud revenue (taking half of the revenue once sales passed a preset level). - The pause was reported by *The Wall Street Journal* in late August 2026 (around August 21–28, 2026, corresponding to "shelved the plan last week" relative to the August 28 TipRanks article). - The pause likely triggered fears of reduced support for neocloud firms, but an Nvidia spokesperson said the business model is still in place and "continues to evolve," and reports say Nvidia could rework the plan or fold it into another initiative (such as the $500 billion Wall Street compute financing platform). - Let's verify the status of the thread: "Nvidia NeoCloud Revenue-Sharing Program Revamp or Cancellation" (id: `01a0838f-85f4-7546-9aa6-96928bb600cf`). This thread asks us to: "Monitor whether Nvidia officially cancels, revamps, or resumes its $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing and credit-support program, or folds it into the $500 billion Wall Street platform." Wait! This TipRanks article confirms that Nvidia has indeed *shelved* or *paused* the program, which was reported by WSJ and confirmed in Nvidia's quarterly filing (which would be the Q2 FY2027 Form 10-Q filed in late August 2026). Let's see if there is any other news on this. Let's do a search for "Nvidia" "10-Q" "revenue-sharing" OR "credit support" to see the exact text from the SEC filing. Let's do a web search.

This is absolutely spectacular. Let's look at the details: - Under "guarantees" in the 10-Q (filed for the quarter ending July 26, 2026, which was filed in August 2026): - "In August 2026, we entered into guarantees with SB Energy Corp. to provide credit support on the land, power, and shell buildout at SB Energy's PORTS Technology Campus in Pike County, Ohio, covering leases for approximately 4.25 gigawatts of IT load. The guarantees terminate upon certain events, including OpenAI achieving a satisfactory credit rating or after each respective lease term has completed. We also hold an option, exercisable in our sole discretion, to provide additional credit support in phases for approximately 3.8 additional gigawatts as the site scales." - Wait, this confirms the details of the OpenAI/SB Energy deal! The initial phase covers **4.25 gigawatts of IT load**, and Nvidia has an option to provide additional credit support for **3.8 additional gigawatts** as the site scales. - The guarantees are **capped at $105 billion** (as reported by Reuters/CNBC/Chosun and Hudson Labs). - The guarantees terminate upon certain events, including OpenAI achieving a satisfactory credit rating or after each respective lease term has completed. - Let's check the transcript of the Q2 FY2027 earnings call (August 26, 2026): - Colette Kress: "Since the announcement of our Groq partnership last year, we've been working to unite NVIDIA's high throughput... Last month, we announced a partnership with Noetra, Japan's national AI company... Korea's LG and Hyundai Motor Group are partnering with NVIDIA to build and scale AI... independently, we have introduced a revenue-sharing structure... support... For another frontier AI lab, we will provide selective credit enhancement for nearly 2 gigawatts of compute. complements the substantial NVIDIA Compute capacity they've secured independently without NVIDIA's credit support." - Wait! "For another frontier AI lab, we will provide selective credit enhancement for nearly 2 gigawatts of compute." Who is that? Is that Anthropic? Let's check. Let's do a search on "another frontier AI lab" "nearly 2 gigawatts of compute" OR "selective credit enhancement" to find out. And let's search for "Nvidia" "Anthropic" "credit enhancement" OR "guarantee" OR "2 gigawatts" OR "2GW". Let's do a web search.

This is extremely interesting. Let's look at the details: - During the Q2 FY2027 earnings call (August 26, 2026), Nvidia CFO Colette Kress teased that the company would go further by providing **selective credit enhancement for nearly 2 gigawatts of compute** for "another frontier AI lab" (which analysts suspect is Anthropic, to run Nvidia infrastructure for Claude). - This is in addition to the $105 billion guarantee for OpenAI's 4.25 GW data center in Ohio with SB Energy. Let's check the status of our threads and watches: - "Nvidia NeoCloud Revenue-Sharing Program Revamp or Cancellation" (id: `01a0838f-85f4-7546-9aa6-96928bb600cf`): This watch monitors whether Nvidia officially cancels, revamps, or resumes its $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing program, or folds it into the $500 billion Wall Street platform. - The evidence shows that in late August 2026, Nvidia *shelved* or *paused* the $36 billion revenue-sharing and credit-support program (originally announced on July 1, 2026). - According to WSJ and TipRanks, Nvidia put the program on hold last week (late August 2026) amid concerns over circular financing, but a spokesperson stated that the business model remains in place and continues to evolve, with reports indicating it may be revamped or folded into another initiative. - Let's record an event for this watch and resolve the thread if appropriate, or keep it open if it's still evolving. Wait, the watch is a "one_shot" watch. If it says "Monitor whether Nvidia officially cancels, revamps, or resumes...", and it has shelved/paused it, we can record the event. Let's see if we should resolve it or if it's ongoing. Actually, it is a `one_shot` watch. Let's record a high-salience event on it. - Let's look at other watches that might have fired: - "Nvidia Q3 FY2027 Earnings Release and Gross Margin Performance" (fire_date: 2026-11-17T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired (current time is September 11, 2026). - "SB Energy IPO Pricing and Trading Debut" (fire_date: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired. - "Nvidia Rubin Ultra Final Memory Specifications and Shipment Verification" (fire_date: 2027-11-30T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired. - "Nvidia Q4 FY2027 Gross Margin Bottoming (71%-72%)" (fire_date: 2027-02-25T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired. - "Nvidia FY2028 Revenue Growth (Guided ~70%)" (fire_date: 2028-02-25T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired, but Nvidia officially guided to "70% fiscal 2028 revenue growth" during Q2 FY2027 earnings. - "Nvidia FY2028 Gross Margin Settling (72%-73%)" (fire_date: 2028-02-25T00:00:00Z): Not yet fired. - "Samsung Custom NVHBM (8-Layer HBM4E) Qualification and Volume Shipments" (fire_date: 2027-09-30T00:00:00Z): Let's search if there is any update on Samsung's HBM4E qualification or volume shipments. - "Nvidia 5-Year CDS Spread Crossing 100 bps": Let's see if we can find any info on Nvidia's CDS spread. - "AWS 2 Million Nvidia GPU Deployment": Not yet. - "Oracle Project Jupiter Gas Pipeline Green Chile Project Target Completion" (fire_date: 2027-02-01T00:00:00Z): Let's search if there is any news on Oracle's Project Jupiter or Green Chile Project gas pipeline. - "OpenAI Ohio PORTS-Pike Technology Campus Phase 1 Live": It is scheduled to come online in phases starting in 2028 (according to CNBC). So it hasn't fired yet. - "Lancium Grid Hookup Milestones and Stargate 1 Chip Deployment": Let's search if there are any updates on Lancium's grid hookup milestones or Stargate 1. - "Nvidia >15% Server Price Hikes Effective and Gross Margin Impact" (fire_date: 2027-01-15T00:00:00Z): Not yet. - "Hyperscaler SPV and Corporate Bond Spread Widening": Let's search for any news on hyperscaler SPV or corporate bond spreads. - "Aggregate Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Trajectory (2026–2028)": Let's check if there are updates. - "Nvidia $500B Wall Street Compute Financing Platform Capital Deployment": Has there been any finalized compute financing deal announced? Let's search for "Nvidia" "$500B" OR "$500 billion" "Apollo" "BlackRock" "Blackstone" "Goldman" "KKR" "Brookfield" to see if any deals have been finalized. - "Alphabet $40B At-the-Market (ATM) Stock Program Execution": Let's check Google's Q3 2026 filings (not yet filed, since current date is September 11, 2026, and Q3 ends around Sept 30, filed in Oct). - "SK Telecom 2GW AI Data Center First Facility Live": Not yet. - "SpaceX Starmind Satellite Orbital Data Center Launch": Scheduled for 2027. - "HBM Memory Component Pricing and Supply Bottlenecks": Let's search for HBM memory component pricing or supply bottlenecks. - "Meta Cloud Infrastructure and Compute Leasing Commercialization": Let's search if Meta has officially launched or detailed its cloud infrastructure/compute leasing business. - "Google Cloud Q3 2026 Operating Margin and Third-Party Capacity Impact" (fire_date: 2026-10-25T00:00:00Z): Not yet. - "Google 110,000-GPU Colossus 2 Lease Commencement" (fire_date: 2026-10-15T00:00:00Z): Not yet (scheduled for October 2026). - "Oracle 50,000-GPU AMD Instinct Helios Supercluster Deployment" (fire_date: 2026-09-30T00:00:00Z): Let's check if there are any updates on Oracle's deployment of AMD Instinct MI450/MI455X GPUs. - "AMD Instinct MI455X and Helios Rack mass production ramp": Scheduled for Q2 2027. - "Nvidia Kyber NVL144 rack commercial shipment verification": Scheduled for late 2027. - "Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000 commercial availability": Scheduled for 2028. - "Qualcomm HBC Gen 1 and AI250 commercial sampling": Scheduled for Q2 2027. - "OpenAI Jalapeño chip initial production deployment": Scheduled for late 2026. - "Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027": Let's check Oracle's latest earnings or filings. Wait, Oracle's Q1 FY2027 earnings are typically in September. Let's search for Oracle's latest earnings or filings. - "Anthropic public S-1 filing and IPO debut" (fire_date: 2026-11-15T00:00:00Z): Not yet. - "Meta Platforms potential equity raise announcement and pricing": Let's check if Meta has announced any equity raise. - "Nebius 850 MW active power capacity by YE 2026" (fire_date: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z): Not yet. - "RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch" (fire_date: 2026-10-01T00:00:00Z): Scheduled for Fall 2026. Let's check if there are any early reviews or announcements. Let's do some specific searches to check these watches. Let's search for "Oracle" "earnings" OR "filings" OR "$40B debt" OR "Helios" OR "MI455X" to see if Oracle's latest earnings (which typically happen in early September) have been reported. Let's do a web search.

Ah! Oracle reported Q1 FY2027 earnings yesterday (Thursday, September 10, 2026). Let's see if we can find the results of Oracle's Q1 FY2027 earnings. We need to fetch information about Oracle's Q1 FY2027 earnings and any details about its capex, backlog, $40B debt/equity plans, and pipeline/project updates. Let's do a search.

This is a massive set of numbers for Oracle's Q1 FY2027 (quarter ending August 31, 2026, reported September 10, 2026). Let's review: - **Revenue**: $19.35 billion (CNBC says $19.35B vs $19.14B expected). - **YoY Growth**: Cloud infrastructure revenue grew by **121% YoY** to **$7.388 billion** (or $7.4 billion), up from $3.347 billion in Q1 FY2026. This represents *triple-digit growth* for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). - **Adjusted EPS**: $1.92 vs $1.74 expected. - **Capital Expenditures (Capex)**: Let's check the line item "Capital expenditures" in the cash flows: - In Q1 FY2027: **$28.499 billion**! - Wait, in Q1 FY2026: **$8.502 billion**! - This is a massive jump! Oracle spent **$28.5 billion on capex in a single quarter**! That is up from $8.502 billion in Q1 FY2026 and $55.663 billion for the *entire* FY2026. Let's double check this: "Took load of debt and spend already in 1 quarter more than 55% of last year capex." - Wait, is the capex $28.499 billion? Yes, the SEC filing table shows: "Capital expenditures (28,499) for the three months ended August 31, 2026." - **Total Debt**: Oracle's total debt now stands at **$125 billion** (CNBC says $125 billion, the SEC table shows "Notes payable and other borrowings, non-current" is $117.712 billion, but total debt with short term might be $125 billion). - **Free Cash Flow**: CNBC says "negative free cash flow came in at $5.4 billion, compared with negative $362 million a year earlier." Let's check the cash flow statement: Operating cash flow was $7.645 billion (wait, "Net cash provided by operating activities" is not explicitly named, but "Net increase (decrease) in cash" is $7.645 billion. Let's look at the cash flows: Net income was $4.760 billion, Depreciation $3.156 billion, Capital expenditures $(28.499) billion). - Wait, Oracle has indeed expanded its capex significantly. - Let's check the New Mexico gas pipeline delay ("Project Jupiter"): - CNBC says: "Heading into the results, analysts were looking for information on hiccups in Oracle’s data center buildout, after Bloomberg reported that a natural gas pipeline for a New Mexico data center was running behind schedule." - Wait, let's look at the watch: "Oracle Project Jupiter Gas Pipeline Green Chile Project Target Completion" (id: `01a03b76-9b7a-7310-adb8-b6c231a12e0e`). It monitors whether the pipeline is completed by February 1, 2027, or if further setbacks delay Project Jupiter's online date. Since the target completion is February 1, 2027, and Bloomberg reported that the pipeline was delayed to 2027, this is still ongoing but we have fresh details. Let's search for "Oracle" "New Mexico" "natural gas pipeline" or "Green Chile Project" "Project Jupiter" to see if there are more details. Let's do a web search.

The web_search budget is now spent, so I must stop searching and focus on synthesizing my findings, writing/updating the notes, and resolving the threads and watches. Let's review the available information: 1. **Nvidia's AI capex story is very much intact but undergoing a structural transition.** - In Q2 FY2027 (quarter ending July 31, 2026), Nvidia reported a massive revenue beat at $96.22 billion (+105.9% YoY) with a record $89 billion from its Data Center division. - Nvidia guided to Q3 FY2027 revenue of $108 billion (plus or minus 2%) and adjusted gross margins of ~74%. - Nvidia officially guided to a **70% revenue growth rate for fiscal 2028** as supply constraints ease. - This massive demand is supported by a historic acceleration in hyperscaler and enterprise capex. For example, **Oracle** reported Q1 FY2027 results (on September 10, 2026) showing that its cloud infrastructure revenue grew **121% YoY to $7.388 billion**, and its quarterly capital expenditures skyrocketed to **$28.499 billion** (up from $8.502 billion in Q1 FY2026 and $55.663 billion for the *entire* FY2026). 2. **Off-Balance-Sheet & Guarantees Structure is Scaling (Addressing Circular Financing Concerns):** - **OpenAI / SB Energy / SoftBank Deal Finalized:** In August 2026, Nvidia finalized a massive agreement to provide **up to $105 billion in guarantees** (downsized from the initially rumored $250 billion, then $120 billion) to support OpenAI's lease of a sprawling data center in Pike County, Ohio, developed by SoftBank-backed SB Energy (at the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus). - Nvidia is also investing **$1.5 billion directly in SB Energy**, joining SoftBank Group and OpenAI. - The initial phase covers **4.25 gigawatts of IT load**, and Nvidia has an option to provide additional credit support for **3.8 additional gigawatts** as the site scales. - Reuters notes: "Overall, Nvidia could make $600 billion in revenue from OpenAI by 2030 by selling it 16 gigawatts of computing power, including an expansion of the Ohio site by 3.75 gigawatts." - **Anthropic Credit Support:** During the Q2 FY2027 earnings call, Nvidia CFO Colette Kress teased that Nvidia will provide **selective credit enhancement for nearly 2 gigawatts of compute** for "another frontier AI lab" (widely suspected to be Anthropic to support its Claude infrastructure). 3. **NeoCloud Revenue-Sharing Program Paused/Shelved:** - In late August 2026, *The Wall Street Journal* reported that Nvidia has **shelved or paused its $36 billion revenue-sharing and credit-support program** (announced on July 1, 2026). - Under this "AI Compute Partnership," Nvidia offered credit support to AI cloud firms (like Sharon AI and Firmus, the first two partners), taking half of the cloud/product revenue once sales passed a preset level. - This program was put on hold amid growing Wall Street scrutiny of "circular financing" (Nvidia providing credit to companies to buy its own chips). However, an Nvidia spokesperson noted that the business model is still in place and continues to evolve, and reports indicate Nvidia could rework it or fold it into its broader $500 billion Wall Street compute financing platform. 4. **Oracle's Project Jupiter Pipeline Delay:** - Oracle's 2.45 GW/2.5 GW "Project Jupiter" data center in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, which will host AI infrastructure for OpenAI (powered by Bloom Energy fuel cells), is facing infrastructure delays. - The 17-mile natural gas pipeline (the "Green Chile Project" proposed by Energy Transfer's Transwestern unit) required to power the Bloom Energy fuel cells has been delayed by nearly six months. The target in-service date slipped from August 15, 2026, to **February 1, 2027**, according to federal regulatory filings. - Additionally, New Mexico Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard denied right-of-way requests for the pipeline to run through state trust lands in March and July 2026. Oracle maintains that "Project Jupiter remains on schedule." Let's look at the prior notes and find which ones to update: - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Parabolic Run): We should update this with Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 results ($96.22B revenue, $89B Data Center, Q3 guidance of $108B, and FY2028 guidance of 70% growth) and Oracle's massive Q1 FY2027 results ($28.5B quarterly capex, 121% OCI revenue growth). - `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` (Off-Balance-Sheet Joint Ventures): We should update this with the finalized $105 billion OpenAI/SB Energy guarantee, the $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy, the 4.25 GW initial IT load with a 3.8 GW option, and the new 2 GW credit enhancement for "another frontier AI lab" (Anthropic). We can also update the status of the $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing program, which has been shelved/paused. - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's AI Moat): Wait, this note also covers the $105B OpenAI deal and the $500B Wall Street platform. We should update this as well, or merge/cross-reference. Actually, let's update `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` and `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` or keep them clean. Let's see: `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` is titled "Nvidia's AI Moat: $164.5 Billion in Financial Guarantees, the Finalized $105 Billion OpenAI Deal, and the $500 Billion Wall Street Platform". Let's update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` and `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` and `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models`. Wait, let's reuse these exact slugs to update them in place. - Let's check `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` (Local and Federal Lawmakers Enact Data Center Moratoriums as Environmental and Power Bottlenecks Intensify). It mentions "the physical constraints of power grid capacity...". We can update this note or a related one with Oracle's Project Jupiter pipeline delay (the Green Chile Project delay to February 1, 2027, and New Mexico Land Commissioner rejections). Actually, let's see if we have a note on Oracle. We don't have a specific Oracle note, but we can write a note or update `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` or create a new one. Wait, let's keep things highly structured. Let's review the instructions: "One finding = ONE coherent subject tracked under one stable slug across cycles — a developing story, a running debate, or an entity's trajectory — NOT a fresh single-story-of-the-day note each cycle." So we should update: 1. `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` with the latest capex figures (Nvidia Q2 results & FY2028 70% growth guidance, and Oracle's $28.5B Q1 capex and 121% OCI growth). 2. `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` or `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. Let's check which slug is better. The prior findings have: - `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` (Off-Balance-Sheet Joint Ventures and the New AI Infrastructure Financing Model: Nvidia's $500 Billion Wall Street Platform...) - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's AI Moat: $164.5 Billion in Financial Guarantees, the Finalized $105 Billion OpenAI Deal, and the $500 Billion Wall Street...) Let's update both or focus on updating `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` for the financing structures (including the $105B OpenAI guarantee, the $1.5B SB Energy investment, the 2GW Anthropic credit enhancement, and the pause on the $36B NeoCloud revenue-sharing deals). 3. Let's create or update a note for the infrastructure bottlenecks, e.g., `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` to include Oracle's Project Jupiter pipeline delay (Green Chile Project delayed to Feb 1, 2027, by Land Commissioner and Energy Transfer filings). Let's first write/update the notes. Let's prepare the bodies. ### Note 1: Big Tech's AI Capex Parabolic Run Slug: `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` Title: Big Tech's AI Capex Parabolic Run: Hyperscaler Spending Surpasses $725B in 2026 as Nvidia Guides to 70% Growth in FY2028 Content: - Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 results: Revenue of $96.22 billion (+105.9% YoY), Data Center revenue of $89 billion. - Nvidia's Q3 FY2027 guidance: Revenue of $108 billion (+/- 2%), adjusted gross margins of ~74%. - Nvidia's FY2028 revenue guidance: 70% growth as supply constraints ease. - Oracle's Q1 FY2027 results (reported September 10, 2026): OCI revenue doubled (+121% YoY) to $7.388 billion. Capital expenditures skyrocketed to a staggering **$28.499 billion in a single quarter** (up from $8.502 billion in Q1 FY2026 and $55.663 billion for the entire FY2026), demonstrating the sheer scale of the hardware buildout. - Quote from Nvidia CFO Colette Kress: "We're going through a major computing platform shift, the creation of one of the most important technologies in human history... We believe these investments measured against the strength of their demand, the business they create for us, the ecosystem they build on Nvidia's platform and the equity returns on our invested capital will be excellent, and our risk is limited." ### Note 2: Off-Balance-Sheet Joint Ventures and the New AI Infrastructure Financing Model Slug: `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` Title: Off-Balance-Sheet Joint Ventures and the New AI Infrastructure Financing Model: The Capped $105B OpenAI Guarantee and the $36B NeoCloud Program Pause Content: - Detail the finalized OpenAI/SB Energy deal: Nvidia is providing up to **$105 billion in guarantees** to help OpenAI lease a sprawling data center in Pike County, Ohio, developed by SoftBank-backed SB Energy (at the PORTS-Pike Technology Campus). - Nvidia is investing **$1.5 billion directly in SB Energy**, joining SoftBank and OpenAI as shareholders. - The initial phase covers **4.25 gigawatts of IT load**, with an option for Nvidia to provide additional credit support for **3.8 additional gigawatts** as the site scales. - This secures long-term GPU demand, with Reuters projecting Nvidia could make **$600 billion in revenue from OpenAI by 2030** by deploying approximately 1.5 million GPUs. - Tease of a new **nearly 2 gigawatts of compute** selective credit enhancement for "another frontier AI lab" (widely suspected to be Anthropic). - Detail the **pause/shelving of the $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing and credit-support program** (announced on July 1, 2026), reported by the *Wall Street Journal* in late August 2026 due to growing Wall Street concerns over "circular financing." Under this program, Nvidia provided credit support to AI cloud firms (like Sharon AI and Firmus) in exchange for a share of product and cloud revenue (taking half of the revenue once sales passed a preset level). An Nvidia spokesperson stated that the business model is still in place and "continues to evolve," and it could be reworked or folded into its broader $500 billion Wall Street platform. ### Note 3: Local and Federal Lawmakers Enact Data Center Moratoriums as Environmental and Power Bottlenecks Intensify Slug: `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` Title: Local and Federal Lawmakers Enact Data Center Moratoriums as Environmental and Power Bottlenecks Intensify: Oracle's Project Jupiter Delayed by Natural Gas Pipeline Setbacks Content: - Highlight Oracle's 2.45 GW/2.5 GW "Project Jupiter" data center in Doña Ana County, New Mexico, which will host AI infrastructure for OpenAI (powered by Bloom Energy fuel cells). - The 17-mile natural gas pipeline (the "Green Chile Project" proposed by Energy Transfer's Transwestern unit) required to power the Bloom Energy fuel cells has been delayed by nearly six months. The target in-service date slipped from August 15, 2026, to **February 1, 2027**, according to federal regulatory filings. - New Mexico Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard denied right-of-way requests for the pipeline to run through state trust lands in March and July 2026, highlighting environmental and regulatory hurdles. - This demonstrates that physical infrastructure bottlenecks (such as gas pipelines and power grid capacity) remain a key risk to the speed of the AI capex deployment. Let's perform these `write_note` actions. I will start by updating `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`.I will now write the first updated note, updating `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` with Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 earnings and Oracle's massive Q1 FY2027 capital expenditure performance.

I will write the updated note for `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` to capture Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 results and Oracle's massive Q1 FY2027 capital expenditures, verifying that Nvidia's AI capex story remains highly intact.

I will now write the updated note for `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` to capture the finalized $105 billion OpenAI/SB Energy guarantee, the $1.5 billion investment in SB Energy, the 2GW Anthropic credit enhancement, and the pause on the $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing program.

I will write the updated note for `off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models` to detail the finalized $105 billion OpenAI/SB Energy guarantee, the $1.5 billion direct investment in SB Energy, the 2GW Anthropic credit enhancement, and the pause on the $36 billion NeoCloud revenue-sharing deals.

I will now write the updated note for `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` to capture the physical infrastructure bottlenecks, specifically Oracle's Project Jupiter data center pipeline delays in New Mexico.