Cycle on Sep 17, 2026

I'll run this research cycle on whether Nvidia's AI capex story is still intact. Let me start by checking open threads, prior notes, and pulling the current market view for NVDA.

I have the lay of the land. Key things to check this cycle: (1) the FOMC decision expected yesterday (Sept 16) — a one_shot watch that likely fired; (2) the Trump–AI leaders meeting watch; (3) the hyperscaler capex-cut tripwire; (4) any fresh Nvidia demand/order news. Let me search for the latest.

Major developments confirmed: the Fed **hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4% yesterday** (first hike since 2023, unanimous under new chair Kevin Warsh), and Nvidia is rebounding after the safety-driven selloff with no evidence of cancelled orders. Let me fetch the key articles to get verbatim quotes, and check the Trump–AI leaders meeting status.

The picture is forming: the Fed hiked (first since 2023), Nvidia rebounded with no order cancellations, and the Trump–AI leaders meeting is now eyed for next week during the Xi visit. Let me pull the macro view for cited rate figures and fetch the key articles for quotes.

I have all the evidence I need — let me grab two final source pages for verbatim quotes (Nvidia's own capex forecast and the KKR private-credit figure), then write the findings and close out the cycle.

I have all the evidence in hand. Now I'll persist the findings: updating the capex story note, the safety-debate note, and the financing note, plus a new note on the Fed's first hike since 2023.

Two notes updated. Now the new Fed-hike note and the financing-layer update.

All four findings are persisted. Now I'll record the FOMC watch event (it fired yesterday) and register two new forward-looking watches.

All findings persisted, the FOMC watch resolved, and two new watches registered. The cycle's answer to the brief: **yes, the capex story is intact on demand** — zero cancellations, BofA's $795B/$1.08T estimates reaffirmed, Nvidia guiding $1.3T for 2027 with $279B in pre-orders — **but the test has shifted to rates and safety politics**, with the Fed's first hike since 2023 and the 10-year at 5% now sitting on top of the trade.

Research cycle complete. Here's what this cycle found on **"Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?"**: ## Verdict: Intact on demand — but the test has shifted from demand to rates **1. The capex story survived the safety selloff** — updated [[big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026]] - Zero cancelled orders or data-center projects. Reuters: Chuck Carlson (Horizon Investment Services) — *"I need to see something concrete that, in fact, there is a slowdown versus just talk."* - BofA's estimates held: ~$795B hyperscaler capex in 2026 → ~$1.08T in 2027. Nvidia's own forecast is higher still: **$1.3T for 2027, ~$300B above the Street**, with supplier pre-orders up from $119B to **$279B in one quarter**. - NVDA closed **+0.8% at $213.90 on Fed day** while the Dow fell 600+; TTM revenue $303B (+106%), gross margin 74.7%, P/E 26.82 — a decade-low multiple at 100%+ growth. **2. The Fed fired the macro shot** — new note [[first-rate-hike-since-2023]] - Sept 16: first hike since 2023, unanimous 12-0 under Chair Warsh, to 3.75%–4.00%, with **one more hike signaled this year**. 10-year Treasury at 5.00% — highest since 2007. This is the new headwind layer on AI multiples and debt-funded capex. **3. The safety debate moves to Xi-visit week** — updated [[ai-safety-slowdown-debate]] - The Trump–AI leaders meeting is now eyed for the **sidelines of Xi's state visit next week** (Altman and Huang expected at the state dinner). Trump doubled down: AI takeover fears are *"a HOAX"* and a *"SICK conspiracy."* No pacing commitments exist yet, so no compute orders deferred. **4. The financing layer keeps scaling** — updated [[off-balance-sheet-ai-infrastructure-financing-models]] - KKR placed **$80B of private IG deals in H1 2026 (+104% YoY)**, sees a **$6T financing gap** against $7.6T of five-year AI capex — and flagged that hyperscaler bond spreads are already widening. **Watches:** resolved the FOMC one_shot (hike landed); registered the Trump–Xi summit AI meeting and the next FOMC decision. The standing tripwire — any actual hyperscaler capex cut or order cancellation — remains unfired.