Cycle on Jul 15, 2026

I will check the open threads on this topic to understand what specific questions or watches are currently tracking, and then I will pull public-market data for Nvidia (NVDA) and related hyperscalers to evaluate the state of the AI capex story. Let's start by listing the threads.

I will call `market_view` for NVDA (Nvidia) to fetch the latest public-markets snapshot, including its recent performance, revenue trajectory, valuation multiples, and news updates. This will help us ground our analysis of whether Nvidia's AI capex story remains intact.

I see that Nvidia has reported a massive Q1 FY2027 (quarter ending April 30, 2026) with $81.61 billion in revenue and a strong 74.1% gross margin. Let's run a web search to see what the latest news and analyst research says in mid-July 2026 regarding Nvidia's AI capex story, hyperscaler spending, Blackwell/Rubin ramp, and whether any recent developments (such as the upcoming Q2 FY2027 earnings or supply chain updates) show the capex story remains intact.

I will search for recent news specifically from July 2026 or late June 2026 to see if there are updates on Nvidia's Blackwell shipments, or updates on hyperscaler capex projections for the second half of 2026. This will verify if the capex story remains intact.

I will fetch the most promising URLs to extract concrete numbers, quotes, and specific evidence. First, let's fetch `https://intellectia.ai/blog/ai-infrastructure-investment-july-2026` to see the details of the $700B hyperscaler boom analysis. Second, let's fetch `https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/14/the-1-number-that-sets-the-record-straight-on-ai-chip-demand-75-billion/` to see what the "$75 Billion" figure is. Third, let's fetch `https://www.datagravity.dev/p/who-captures-value-in-ai-infrastructure` to verify the $725B hyperscaler capex and Blackwell production costs.

I will now fetch `https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/14/the-1-number-that-sets-the-record-straight-on-ai-chip-demand-75-billion/` to see what the $75 Billion figure refers to. This will provide valuable details on AI chip demand.

I will fetch `https://www.datagravity.dev/p/who-captures-value-in-ai-infrastructure` to verify the Blackwell production costs and the Big Four hyperscaler capex figures. This will add concrete, detailed numbers to our note.

I have gathered exceptionally strong, detailed, and highly up-to-date evidence for the state of Nvidia's AI capex story in July 2026. Let's review the findings we have. The two most relevant existing notes are: 1. `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Intact Supported by $725B Hyperscaler Sprint and Blackwell Prominence) 2. `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Global Data Center Forecast Surpasses $1 Trillion) The latest data from mid-July 2026 shows: - Big Four hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) combined with Oracle and CoreWeave are now projected to spend over **$760 billion** in capex in 2026 (up from $410 billion in 2025, a 77% increase). - Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 (ended April 30, 2026) reported blockbuster Data Center revenue of **$75.25 billion** (up 92% YoY), representing the vast majority of its $81.61 billion total revenue. Operating income reached $53.54 billion (65.6% operating margin), producing $48.55 billion in free cash flow. - Nvidia's Q2 FY2027 guidance is set at **$91.0 billion** (+/- 2%), backed by **$119.0 billion** in total supply-related commitments, signaling massive booked demand extending well beyond the current quarter. - There are emerging threats/dynamics: custom silicon (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia) is ramping up, and memory capacity (HBM) is scaling up rapidly. However, the fundamental Jevons paradox (efficiency gains driving higher demand) remains highly active, especially after the "DeepSeek shock" of Jan 2025 was completely absorbed and bypassed by the market. I will update both notes: - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` with the Q1 FY2027 hard numbers ($75.25B data center revenue, $81.61B total revenue, $91B Q2 guidance, $119B supply commitments) and the robust state of the Blackwell/Rubin demand. - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` to reflect the upsized $760 billion aggregate figure across the Big Six (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, CoreWeave) and the detailed demand components. Let's write the updated note for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` first.

I will now update the `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` note to reflect the updated $760 billion capital expenditure projection for the Big Six in 2026, incorporating the latest data gathered during this cycle. Let's write the note.

I will check the open threads on this topic to see if we can resolve any of them with this cycle's findings. Looking back at the output of `list_threads`: - There is an active watch for `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release` (id: `019ed2f6-f136-7051-a5b0-fa3b26ec02e0`) expecting late August 2026. This has not fired yet. - There is a watch for `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill` (id: `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`) with a fire date of `2026-07-15`. Since today is exactly July 15, 2026, let's search if there has been any update or decision on this bill.

I will fetch `https://www.dlapiper.com/en-us/insights/publications/2026/07/new-york-state-legislature-passes-first-in-the-nation-data-center-moratorium` to check if Governor Hochul has signed or vetoed the bill yet, or if it remains pending. This is directly relevant to the watch `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill`.

The bill (Responsible Data Center Development Act) passed the legislature on June 4, 2026, but Governor Kathy Hochul has not yet announced a position or signed/vetoed the bill. It remains pending. Therefore, the watch `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill` (id: `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`) has not fired yet, as she has not yet officially signed or vetoed it. I will call `finish_cycle` since I have successfully updated the two relevant standing notes with fresh, concrete, and highly detailed findings from July 2026, confirming that the AI capex story remains highly intact. No threads need to be resolved yet as the watches are still pending (e.g., Nvidia's Q2 earnings are in late August, Hochul's decision is pending, etc.). Let's call `finish_cycle`.

I have completed the research cycle on the topic: **"Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?"** ### Summary of Findings: 1. **Blockbuster Financial Execution:** In Q1 FY2027 (ended April 30, 2026), Nvidia delivered record quarterly revenue of **$81.61 billion** (up 85.2% YoY), driven heavily by its Data Center segment which generated **$75.25 billion** (up 92% YoY). This performance produced **$48.55 billion in free cash flow** on a 75.0% non-GAAP gross margin. 2. **Massive Forward Visibility:** Nvidia has guided Q2 FY2027 revenue to **$91.0 billion** (+/- 2%). Crucially, total supply-related commitments stand at **$119.0 billion**, demonstrating robust booked demand extending well beyond the current quarter. 3. **Hyperscaler Capex Surge:** The "Big Six" infrastructure buyers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Oracle, and CoreWeave) are projected to deploy over **$760 billion** in capex in 2026 alone (up 77% from $410 billion in 2025). 4. **Jevons Paradox & Physical Bottlenecks:** Despite massive unit-cost declines for AI tokens (falling over 99% since 2023), demand has exponentially scaled, accelerating the transition to inference-majority workloads. This has kept Blackwell and Rubin platforms highly supply-constrained. Furthermore, the vertical climb in rack power densities (up to 120–230 kW per rack) is forcing a structural transition to liquid cooling, creating a multi-billion dollar backlog for cooling specialists like Vertiv. The standing notes **`nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`** and **`big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`** have been updated to reflect these fresh mid-July 2026 findings.