Cycle on Jun 26, 2026

I will start by listing the open threads and reading the existing notes for this topic. This will help understand what questions are currently being tracked and what findings have already been established. I will also fetch the market view for Nvidia (`NVDA`) to get the latest public market data and financial context.

I will list the current notes for this topic to understand what has already been documented regarding Nvidia, AI capex, and related trends.

Now, let's call `market_view` for Nvidia (ticker `NVDA`) to get the latest public-markets snapshot, including its current valuation, revenue/earnings trajectory, and multi-quarter performance. This is critical for addressing the prompt's question: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" I will also look at sector or macro views if needed, but the ticker view is the primary starting point.

We see that Nvidia's trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue is $253.49B (+85.2% YoY), gross margin is 74.1%, and its market capitalization is $4.82T. The stock has experienced short-term volatility, declining 7.8% over the past month to $195.74, and is currently about 16.9% off its 52-week high. However, it generated $48.59 billion in free cash flow during the most recent quarter (ending April 30, 2026). Now, let's search the web for recent articles, analysis, or news on whether Nvidia's AI capex story is still intact. Let's do a search on "Nvidia AI capex", "Nvidia Blackwell demand", "hyperscaler AI capex 2026", and related topics to see what the current consensus, debates, and evidence are in late June 2026.

The search results show some very interesting developments. Specifically: - `Nvidia's Micron-Led Bounce Tests Confidence in the AI Capex Cycle` (published very recently, June 25/26, 2026). This mentions Micron's earnings report or preview, and how it is a catalyst testing confidence in the AI capex cycle. Let's fetch this article and read it. - There are mentions of "total supply commitments of $119.0 billion sit on the books" and "purchase orders tied to Blackwell and Vera Rubin could reach $1 trillion by 2027" (referencing GTC 2026). - Let's fetch the Investing.com article: `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1` (or the desktop version `https://www.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200682817`). - Let's also search for Micron's earnings results from June 2026, which seem to have just happened. Let's do a search on "Micron earnings June 2026" or "Micron Q3 FY2026 earnings results". Let's search first.

Indeed! This is huge. Micron reported its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on June 24, 2026, and they shattered records. Let's look at the details: - Micron Q3 2026 revenue hit $41.5B (up from $23.86B in the prior quarter, and quadrupling the year-ago figure). - They secured 16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements locking in $100B in contracts, or $22B in customer deals to lock in supplies of memory chips. - Let's fetch some of these articles to get precise quotes and numbers. I'll fetch: 1. `https://www.reuters.com/business/micron-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-06-24/` 2. `https://www.techtimes.com/articles/319032/20260625/micron-q3-2026-earnings-100b-contracts-signals-ai-memory-cycle-break.htm` 3. `https://m.uk.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200625958?ampMode=1` Let's do `web_fetch` on these URLs. Let's start with the Investing.com article.

Ah, the Firecrawl service returned an error. Let me try to fetch the Reuters article or the TechTimes article. Or let me try the other Investing.com URL. Let's try the Reuters one first: `https://www.reuters.com/business/micron-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-06-24/`

That is an incredibly informative article. It contains several key data points: - Micron's Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue hit **$41.46 billion** (flying past estimates of $35.85 billion). - Adjusted EPS was **$25.11** (compared to $20.78 estimates). - Next quarter (Q4) adjusted EPS guidance is **$31 +/- $1** (well above $25.84 estimates). - Customers have committed **$22 billion** to lock in supplies of memory chips via **16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements**. - Total remaining performance obligations (RPOs) for these customer agreements are around **$100 billion**. - Micron's CEO Sanjay Mehrotra stated: *"We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027 as a result of AI-driven demand across all segments coupled with structural supply constraints."* - Micron's Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana noted that these are five-year term take-or-pay agreements that the industry has not done before. - Micron's market value topped **$1 trillion** following the results. Let's search for more details on the "Micron-led bounce" and how it impacts "confidence in the AI capex cycle" and specifically Nvidia's demand. Let's search for: `"Nvidia's Micron-Led Bounce Tests Confidence in the AI Capex Cycle"` to see if we can find a copy of that article or its content on another URL or via a refined search. Or let's search for broader articles on Nvidia's demand and capex from June 2026.

Let's try to fetch `https://m.za.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200620943?ampMode=1` to see if it loads successfully. It might bypass some of the firecrawl/http2 issues if it's a slightly different server. Let's try.

This is a treasure trove of information that specifically answers the topic brief about whether Nvidia's AI capex story is still intact. Let's list some key points from this June 25, 2026 article: 1. **Nvidia Shareholder Meeting (June 24, 2026):** - CEO Jensen Huang declared that AI has entered a true "profitability era" and characterized the current computing shift as the largest industry reset in 60 years. - He confirmed that the next-generation **Vera Rubin architecture** (successor to Blackwell) is moving into **full-scale production**. - He highlighted that Nvidia's Fiscal 2026 revenue climbed 65% YoY to $216 billion (with operating profit reaching $130 billion and net income reaching $120.07 billion). 2. **Current Financial Trajectory (Q1 FY2027 reported late May 2026):** - Q1 FY2027 revenue was $82 billion (up 85% YoY), with adjusted EPS of $1.87 (beating $1.77 forecast). - Data center revenue surged 92% YoY to $75 billion. - Most importantly, Nvidia generated **$49 billion in free cash flow** in Q1 FY2027 at a 74.9% gross margin. - Nvidia's 2026 full-year free cash flow is forecast near $195.4 billion. 3. **The Micron Catalyst (June 24, 2026):** - Micron's blockbuster Q3 FY2026 results (revenue of $41.46 billion, record gross margin of 84.9%) reignited confidence across the entire AI semiconductor chain. - Micron had 16 strategic customer agreements with take-or-pay commitments, cash deposits, and pricing floors, with total remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of around **$100 billion** (and $22 billion in near-term commitments). - Micron Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana noted these are five-year term take-or-pay agreements that are unprecedented in the memory industry. - This massive contracted demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) confirms the multi-year visibility and scale of the AI buildout. 4. **Competitive Pressures and Structural Risks:** - **Qualcomm** announced a push into data center server chips, targeting $15 billion in segment revenue by 2029 with its Dragonfly C1000 CPU (with Meta and Microsoft as launch customers). - **OpenAI** is reportedly designing its own AI chip called "Jalapeño". - **SambaNova** is raising $800M to $1B for AI server chips. - **AMD** is gaining ground with server-rack offerings, and **Broadcom** custom silicon continues to expand. 5. **Margin Pressure from HBM Costs:** - Micron's gross margin of 84.9% actually eclipsed Nvidia's 74.1% gross margin, showing that memory suppliers are capturing more of the value chain. As HBM is a crucial component of Nvidia's accelerators, this raises Nvidia's input costs and could pressure its future margins if it can't pass them along. Let's do some more search queries to verify: - The details of Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 earnings (reported late May 2026). Let's search for "Nvidia Q1 FY2027 earnings release" to check the details. - Let's search for "Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000" and "OpenAI Jalapeño" to see if there are more details. - Let's check the threads. There is a thread: `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release` which is expected in late August 2026 (fire_date: 2026-08-20). That is in the future. - There is also a thread `CoreWeave quarterly capex tracking` and `Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory`. - Let's do a search on "OpenAI Jalapeño chip" and "Qualcomm Dragonfly C1000" to verify details. This will help us write highly detailed findings.

This is incredible! Let's fetch some of these articles to get precise quotes on OpenAI's Jalapeño chip and Qualcomm's Dragonfly C1000 CPU. This will give us excellent context for the competitive landscape that Nvidia faces, which is a major part of the "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" question. Let's fetch: 1. `https://wccftech.com/openai-first-custom-chip-is-as-hot-as-a-jalapeno-the-best-inference-platform-for-llms/` 2. `https://wccftech.com/qualcomm-single-core-leadership-first-server-cpu-dragonfly-c1000-250-cores-5-ghz-2028/` Or let's fetch the first one. Let's do `web_fetch` on the first one.

This is extremely valuable! OpenAI's first custom chip is called **Jalapeño**, co-developed with **Broadcom** (and board/rack system integration by **Celestica**). It was co-developed from initial design to manufacturing tape-out in just 9 months and is purpose-built for LLM inference workloads (powering ChatGPT, Codex, APIs, and future agentic products). - First engineering samples are already running ML workloads like "GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark" at production target frequency and power. - The chip features 8 HBM (high-bandwidth memory) sites and a central compute die. - The first Jalapeño platforms are scheduled to deploy by **the end of 2026**. Let's fetch the second article about Qualcomm's Dragonfly C1000 CPU to get details on its server CPU and its customer Meta. Let's do a `web_fetch` on: `https://wccftech.com/qualcomm-single-core-leadership-first-server-cpu-dragonfly-c1000-250-cores-5-ghz-2028/` Or let's search first or fetch it. Let's try fetching.

This is very detailed and provides rich competitive context. Let's summarize the key points: - **Qualcomm** has announced its first-ever data center CPU called **Dragonfly C1000** (built on Oryon architecture). - It is a multi-chiplet design featuring **over 250 cores**, sustained frequencies **beyond 5 GHz**, and designed for Agentic AI, general-purpose, and AI head node workloads. - It is claimed to deliver **over 2x better performance per watt** than existing server CPUs. - It includes over 2 TB/s of PCIe Gen7 connectivity and support for next-generation accelerators. - It has an optional **HBC (High Bandwidth Cache) attach** to smash the memory wall. - **Meta** (Mark Zuckerberg) has already signed a multi-generation agreement to partner with Qualcomm on these Dragonfly CPUs. - Commercial availability is targeted for **2028**. - This chip competes directly with **Nvidia's Vera CPU** (which is moving into full production in 2026 as part of the Vera Rubin platform), Intel's Diamond/Coral Rapids, and AMD's Zen 6 Venice/Verano CPUs. Let's do a search on "Nvidia Vera Rubin full production 2026" or "Nvidia Vera CPU" to get a little more context on Nvidia's roadmap and how it addresses this competitive pressure. Let's do a quick web search.

This is an incredible set of details! Let's see: On **June 22, 2026** (just 4 days ago) at the **ISC High Performance 2026** conference in Hamburg, Germany, Nvidia announced that the **NVIDIA Vera Rubin** platform is delivering world-class supercomputers for science. - Supermicro delivered an end-to-end blueprint (DCBBS - Data Center Building Block Solutions) featuring up to **1,152 NVIDIA Rubin GPUs** and **576 NVIDIA Vera CPUs** in liquid-cooled racks. This 3.2MW Scalable Unit delivers native FP64 performance for converged HPC and AI infrastructure. - The Vera Rubin platform tackles the AI inference memory bottleneck with **BlueField-4**, rack-scale CPU-GPU design, and optimized KV cache for large-context LLMs. - This is a massive multi-million or multi-billion dollar platform. Let's fetch one of these articles to get precise quotes on the Vera Rubin / Vera CPU announcement and its technical parameters. Let's fetch the Supermicro block or the TechInsights article. Let's fetch `https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/nvidia-vera-rubin-delivers-world-class-supercomputers-for-science/` as it's a primary source of the ISC 2026 announcement. Or let's fetch the TechInsights one. Let's try `https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/nvidia-vera-rubin-delivers-world-class-supercomputers-for-science/`.

This is extremely helpful. Let's summarize: - The **NVIDIA Vera Rubin** platform was announced at **ISC High Performance 2026** on **June 22, 2026** in Hamburg. - It features **NVIDIA Rubin GPUs** and **NVIDIA Vera CPUs** connected via high-speed NVLink-C2C, ConnectX-9 SuperNICs, and BlueField-4 DPUs in a direct liquid-cooled architecture. - It packs over 7 exaflops of AI for Science and 5 petaflops of native double-precision (FP64) performance in a single rack, with up to 144 GPUs. - Major supercomputing centers and national labs are adopting it: - **Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ)**'s *Blue Lion* (powered by Vera Rubin, HPE Cray, online in 2027). - **National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)**'s *Doudna* (flagship U.S. DOE supercomputer, built by Dell, powered by Vera Rubin). - **Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)**'s *Mission, Vision, and Veritas* systems (built by HPE, using Vera Rubin, Vera CPU, and Quantum-X800 InfiniBand). - Global system manufacturers (Bull, Dell, GIGABYTE, HPE, Supermicro) are bringing **NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL4** to market. - **Availability:** Vera Rubin NVL4-based systems are expected to be available in **Q4 2026**. This is highly relevant! This shows that despite competitive challenges, Nvidia's next-generation platform (Vera Rubin) is already scheduled for deployment starting in Q4 2026, with major national labs and supercomputing centers signing up for it, proving that the high-end capex/investment cycle for Nvidia's hardware remains robust and on schedule. Let's check if we have any other threads to resolve or events to record. Let's see: - Thread 019ed2f6-f136-7051-a5b0-fa3b26ec02e0: `Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release`. The fire-date is 2026-08-20, which is in the future. We can't resolve it yet. - Thread 019e9f7b-8898-71ef-a8fc-916318c1f6ed: `Vera Rubin platform broader commercial shipments in H2 2026`. The fire-date is 2026-11-01, which is in the future. - Thread 019e9f7b-4f43-77fd-9c28-923bb95b9b39: `RTX Spark laptops and desktops retail launch`. The fire-date is 2026-10-01, which is in the future. - Thread 019edd49-1ccb-73d3-9fc0-80ae266f32c4: `Nebius Group Q2 2026 earnings and margin trajectory`. The fire-date is 2026-08-15, which is in the future. - Thread 019eecbc-83f2-7338-8da9-83c6a4f4bd83: `Google Cloud $920M/month CoreWeave capacity payments commence`. The fire-date is October 1, 2026, which is in the future. - Thread 019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86: `NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill`. The fire-date is 2026-07-15, which is in the future. Wait, let's search if there is any update on any of the other threads. Is there any update on the New York Data Center Moratorium Bill? Let's search to see if Gov. Hochul has acted on it early. Let's do a search on "Responsible Data Center Development Act Hochul" or "A11560 S10642 Hochul". This is an excellent way to see if any watch is ready to fire early.

Let's fetch the Lexington Institute article to see if there is any update on whether Gov. Hochul has officially signed or vetoes the bill, or if she's still deliberating: `https://lexingtoninstitute.org/gov-hochuls-data-center-moratorium-veto-deliberations/` This is a great way to see if there is any update.

Very interesting! The Lexington Institute article confirms that Gov. Hochul has not signed or vetoed the bill yet; she is still deliberating and has until the end of the year under New York law. Thus, the watch is still active and has not fired yet. Let's do a search on CoreWeave and Oracle capex to see if we have any updates on the Oracle $40B debt/equity plan or CoreWeave's capex. Let's do a search on "Oracle capex FY2027" or "Oracle $40B financing". Let's do a search.

Let's search more broadly for Oracle's recent financing or capex updates: "Oracle capex" or "Oracle debt equity AI expansion". Let's do a search.

This is incredibly insightful! Let's fetch some of these articles, specifically the one about Oracle's 10-K, Evercore's analysis, and the $21,000 job cuts. Let's fetch: 1. `https://seekingalpha.com/news/4606817-despite-concerns-oracle-10-k-supports-revenue-outlook-for-fiscal-2027-evercore` 2. `https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/oracle-stock-analyst-reboots-outlook-as-costs-spark-debate` Or let's fetch the first one. Let's do `web_fetch` on the first one.

Let's do a search on "Oracle 10-K Evercore capex" to find more details of that report, as it contains very specific information about Oracle's capex, debt, ATM equity program, and job cuts. This is directly related to our watch thread: `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027`. We want to see if we can update this watch or record any event. Let's do a search on "Oracle 10-K capex 2027 21000 jobs".

Perfect. Let's fetch `https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/evercore-isi-maintains-oracle-stock-rating-on-ai-backlog-growth-93CH-4758269` or the MSN link `https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/despite-concerns-oracle-10-k-supports-revenue-outlook-for-fiscal-2027-evercore/ar-AA26rZmp?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds`. Let's try fetching the Investing.com one. If it fails, I'll search for the details. Let's try.

Wow, this is incredibly valuable! Let's see what the Evercore ISI report on Oracle's 10-K (filed this week, late June 2026, for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2026) reveals: - **Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs):** Reached **$77 billion**, representing 86% of Evercore's next-twelve-month revenue estimate. - **Workforce Reductions:** Oracle's full-time employee count **declined by approximately 21,000** compared to the prior year (from 162,000 to 141,000). This massive layoff was largely used to fund its AI data center expansion and offset negative mix shift at the gross margin line. - **Capital Expenditures:** Capex jumped to **$55.7 billion** in FY2026 (up from $21.2 billion in FY2025). - **Free Cash Flow:** This capex surge resulted in a negative free cash flow of **negative $23.7 billion** in FY2026. - **Financing Plans:** Oracle is raising approximately **$20 billion through equity-linked financing** (ATM/equity-linked instruments) over the next couple of quarters to fund its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) build-out. - **Capacity Coming Online:** Oracle has **1 gigawatt (GW)** of capacity coming online in the first quarter of FY2027 (June-August 2026). This is a direct hit on the watch thread: `Oracle $40B Debt and Equity Financing Plan for FY2027` (id: `019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e`). The watch's trigger is: *"Monitor SEC filings and earnings transcripts for debt issuances, ATM stock sales, and free cash flow trajectory (seeking recovery from negative $23.69B in FY2026)."* And the description mentions: *"Track Oracle's progress on its announced plan to raise $40 billion in debt and equity during fiscal year 2027, including its $20 billion ATM program, to fund its AI data center expansion."* The 10-K filed in late June 2026 confirms the negative $23.7B FCF for FY2026, the $55.7B capex, and the plan to raise $20 billion through equity-linked financing over the next couple of quarters, as well as the 21,000 workforce reduction. Let's record an event on this watch thread! The watch is `ongoing` (cardinality: `ongoing`), so we should call `record_event` with `resolves: false` because we track it on an ongoing basis. Let's record this event now. First, let's double-check the exact details of the watch thread. - `thread_id`: `019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e` - `cycle_id`: I need to know the cycle_id. The chat ID is `topic-019e95ad-bd47-7cf5-bd57-eb159d26bbbe-cycle-3d4c3019-e447-4340-a75d-5bb7771e5067`. So `cycle_id` is `3d4c3019-e447-4340-a75d-5bb7771e5067`. Let's verify this. Yes, the chat ID contains the cycle ID at the end. Let's make sure. The chat ID is `topic-019e95ad-bd47-7cf5-bd57-eb159d26bbbe-cycle-3d4c3019-e447-4340-a75d-5bb7771e5067`, so the cycle_id is `3d4c3019-e447-4340-a75d-5bb7771e5067`. Let's call `record_event` for this watch thread.

Awesome! We successfully recorded the event on the Oracle watch thread. Now, let's look at the other threads and notes to see what else we should address. The main prompt asks: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" Let's review the existing notes. We have: - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (Nvidia's Credit Rating Upgraded to 'AA' Amid Record Earnings, but Custom Silicon and HBM Shifts Pressure Stock) - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` (Big Tech's AI Capex Reaches Historic Scale as Alphabet Closes $90B Equity Raise and Meta Weighs Shares) - `ai-monetization-proofs-and-infrastructure-bottlenecks` (Local and Federal Lawmakers Enact Data Center Moratoriums as Environmental and Power Bottlenecks Intensify) - `gpu-specialized-clouds-and-strategic-co-investment` (Specialized GPU Clouds Gain Index Inclusion and Scale Backlogs Amid Heavy Debt and Widening Losses) - `nvidia-vera-cpu-agentic-infrastructure-shift` (Nvidia's Vera CPU and the Agentic Computing Infrastructure Shift) Let's read the full content of `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` and `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` to see how we should update them or if we should write a new note. Let's do a search or fetch the existing notes. Wait, `read_notes` only returned previews. Is there a way to read the full note? No, wait, `read_notes` lists the notes but we can also just write a note with the same slug to update it. Let's fetch the full text of `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` using `read_notes`? Wait, `read_notes` does not take a slug parameter, it returns slug, title, preview, updated_at, and source_count for each note under the topic. Let's see if we can find the full content of `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` by searching our memory or files. The workspace has `/var/lib/hey-lefty/notes/019e89b4-58b3-7e3b-a0c2-6a68bd3242db/019e95ad-bd47-7cf5-bd57-eb159d26bbbe/memory/MEMORY.md` and `HISTORY.md`. Let's check those files first to see what's in them. This is a critical rule: "Before modifying a file, read it first. Do not assume files or directories exist." Let's check files using Go or a terminal? Wait, we are an LLM with tools, let's see if we have file-system tools. Wait, we don't have explicit file-system tools in the tool declarations! Ah, the tool declarations only show: - `list_threads` - `record_thread` - `resolve_thread` - `record_watch` - `record_event` - `read_notes` - `write_note` - `web_search` - `web_fetch` - `market_view` - `finish_cycle` Wait, we don't have file-reading tools like `cat` or `grep` in the declarations! We only have the custom research tools. That's fine, we can read notes via `read_notes` (which we did, getting the previews and slugs) and we can write/update notes via `write_note`. Let's look at the previews of the notes we retrieved. The note `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` has the preview: `Nvidia's artificial intelligence infrastructure supercycle continues to deliver historic financial results, even as the company navigates short-term stock market volatility and structural shifts in…` And `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` has the preview: `The capital expenditure boom supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure is reaching unprecedented heights in 2026, but the funding model has hit a critical transition point. While hyperscalers…` Let's think about how to address the prompt "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" We have gathered massive new evidence from late June 2026: 1. **The Micron Catalyst (June 24, 2026):** Micron's record-shattering Q3 FY2026 earnings ($41.46B revenue, 84.9% gross margin) and its **$100 billion** in RPOs (including $22 billion in near-term take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements) prove that the AI-driven memory cycle is incredibly robust and has multi-year visibility. This directly de-risks fears of a near-term AI capex slowdown. 2. **Nvidia's Shareholder Meeting (June 24, 2026):** CEO Jensen Huang declared a new "profitability era" for AI and confirmed that the next-generation **Vera Rubin** platform is moving into **full-scale production**. 3. **Vera Rubin Launch (June 22, 2026):** Nvidia officially announced that the Vera Rubin platform is delivering world-class supercomputers for science (announced at ISC 2026). Supermicro delivered a 3.2MW liquid-cooled rack blueprint featuring 1,152 Rubin GPUs and 576 Vera CPUs. Major national labs and supercomputing centers (LRZ, NERSC, LANL) are adopting it, with commercial systems shipping in **Q4 2026**. This confirms that the transition to the next-generation architecture is on track. 4. **Competitive Pressures (Late June 2026):** - **OpenAI** and **Broadcom** announced **Jalapeño**, OpenAI's first custom inference chip, designed for ChatGPT, Codex, and future agentic workloads, with deployment starting by the end of 2026. - **Qualcomm** announced **Dragonfly C1000**, its first data center CPU with 250+ cores built on Oryon architecture, targeted for 2028, and signed **Meta** as a multi-generation partner. - These show that while the current capex story is intact, the competitive landscape is intensifying with custom ASICs (OpenAI's Jalapeño) and new server CPUs (Qualcomm's Dragonfly) entering the fray. 5. **Margin Shift:** Micron's 84.9% gross margin actually surpassed Nvidia's 74.1% gross margin, highlighting how memory suppliers are capturing more of the AI value chain and potentially raising Nvidia's input costs. Wait, let's write or update notes! We should update: 1. `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` to reflect Nvidia's latest shareholder meeting, the Vera Rubin production ramp, the record free cash flow of $49B in Q1 FY2027, and the Micron earnings catalyst that validated the durability of the capex cycle. 2. `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` to reflect Oracle's massive FY2026 10-K results ($55.7B capex, negative $23.7B FCF, $20B equity-linked financing ramp, and 21,000 job cuts), which shows the extreme financial pressure and scale of the hyperscaler AI capex buildout. 3. We could also write a new note or update an existing one about the competitive landscape (e.g., custom silicon and data center CPUs) or we can integrate the competitive landscape details directly into the Nvidia or Big Tech capex notes. Wait, let's see if we have notes like `nvidia-vera-cpu-agentic-infrastructure-shift` or if we can write a dedicated note on the competitive landscape. Let's look at the notes list: - `nvidia-vera-cpu-agentic-infrastructure-shift` (Nvidia's Vera CPU and the Agentic Computing Infrastructure Shift) - `nvidia-twenty-billion-groq-deal-and-vera-rubin-integration` (Nvidia's $20B Groq "Acqui-Hire" and NVIDIA Groq 3 LPX Integration) - `nvidia-rtx-spark-pc-market-expansion` (Nvidia Enters PC Market with Arm-Based RTX Spark Superchip) Let's update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` (or we can keep the slug but change the title if needed, as slugs are stable identities). Let's write the updated note for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` first. Wait, let's make sure we ground the note in concrete evidence, including: - Name and link the actual things (Investing.com article, Reuters article, HPCwire article, etc.) - Carry 1-2 representative verbatim quotes, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from. - Say what it means. - Cite the market view URL: `/markets/NVDA/2026/06/26` for any quantitative claims about Nvidia. Let's draft the body of `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. Wait, the title of the note is: `Nvidia's Credit Rating Upgraded to 'AA' Amid Record Earnings, but Custom Silicon and HBM Shifts Pressure Stock` We can keep this title or refine it slightly, keeping the slug `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. Let's write a highly comprehensive update. Let's review the exact quotes we have: From the Reuters article: - Link: `https://www.reuters.com/business/micron-forecasts-quarterly-revenue-above-estimates-2026-06-24/` - Quote: `"We expect tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027 as a result of AI-driven demand across all segments coupled with structural supply constraints," Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in prepared remarks.` - Quote: `Micron reported third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion, flying past estimates of $35.85 billion. The company reported adjusted profit of $25.11 per share, compared with estimates of $20.78 per share.` From the Investing.com article: - Link: `https://m.za.investing.com/analysis/nvidias-micronled-bounce-tests-confidence-in-the-ai-capex-cycle-200620943?ampMode=1` - Quote: `CEO Jensen Huang used the company’s shareholder meeting to declare that AI has entered a true profitability era and confirmed the next-generation Vera Rubin architecture is moving into full-scale production, reframing the stock’s narrative just as the AI trade needed reassurance.` - Quote: `The financial commentary noted that Micron stole Nvidia’s margin king crown, with the memory maker’s 84.9% gross margin eclipsing Nvidia’s 74.1%, a milestone that signals how the memory shortage has shifted pricing power toward the suppliers of high-bandwidth memory that Nvidia’s chips require.` From the HPCwire article: - Link: `https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/nvidia-vera-rubin-delivers-world-class-supercomputers-for-science/` - Quote: `“NVIDIA Vera Rubin is a new instrument for science — a rack-scale supercomputer that brings simulation, AI and data processing together to help researchers and industries design and discover faster than ever,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA.` Let's write the note for `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. I will construct a very thorough, high-quality, and detailed markdown body. Let's write it now.

I will now write the updated note for Nvidia's AI capex story, using the existing slug `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. This note will integrate the Micron Q3 2026 blowout, Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 performance, Jensen Huang's shareholder meeting comments, the Vera Rubin platform production ramp, and emerging competitive pressures.

Now I will write the updated note for Big Tech's AI capex, using the existing slug `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026`. This note will integrate Oracle's newly filed FY2026 10-K results, including its $55.7 billion capex, negative $23.7 billion free cash flow, the 21,000 workforce reduction used to fund the buildout, and its plans to raise $20 billion through equity-linked financing over the next two quarters. This details the massive capital intensity and financial pressure gripping the hyperscalers as they fund the AI infrastructure sprint.

I have successfully updated the two primary notes. Let's review if there are any other threads or watches to resolve. Let's see: The main thread asks: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" This is a general question that has been thoroughly investigated and answered in the updated findings notes. Let's call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle. I don't have any other threads to resolve or watches to register right now, as the current ones are well-defined and forward-looking. I'll call `finish_cycle`.

I have successfully completed the research cycle for topic **019e95ad-bd47-7cf5-bd57-eb159d26bbbe**. ### Summary of Findings 1. **Nvidia's AI Capex Story Remains Robust and Intact:** - **The Micron Catalyst (June 24, 2026):** Micron’s record-shattering fiscal Q3 2026 earnings ($41.46 billion in revenue, 84.9% gross margin) and its disclosure of **$100 billion** in remaining performance obligations (RPOs)—including $22 billion locked in via 16 five-year take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements—have provided strong confirmation of multi-year visibility and durability for the AI capex cycle, de-risking near-term slowdown fears. - **Nvidia's Shareholder Meeting (June 24, 2026):** CEO Jensen Huang declared that AI has entered a true "profitability era" and confirmed that the next-generation **Vera Rubin** platform (featuring Rubin GPUs and standalone Vera CPUs) is moving into **full-scale production**. - **Vera Rubin Launch (June 22, 2026):** Announced at ISC High Performance 2026 in Hamburg, the Vera Rubin platform is already being adopted by major supercomputing centers and national labs (LRZ, NERSC, LANL), with commercial systems shipping in **Q4 2026**. - **Exceptional Financials:** Nvidia's latest Q1 FY2027 figures show $81.61 billion in revenue (+85.2% YoY) and a staggering **$48.59 billion in free cash flow** in a single quarter, trading at an attractive forward P/E of approximately 19.3x due to rapid earnings expansion (citable snapshot: `/markets/NVDA/2026/06/26`). 2. **The Extreme Scale and Financial Strain on Hyperscalers:** - **Oracle's 10-K Disclosures (Late June 2026):** Oracle's fiscal 2026 capital expenditures skyrocketed to **$55.7 billion** (up from $21.2 billion in FY2025), dragging its free cash flow down to **negative $23.7 billion**. To fund this, Oracle is launching a **$20 billion equity-linked financing program** over the next two quarters and has executed a massive **21,000 workforce reduction** (13% of its global employees) to offset gross margin pressure, highlighting the severe financial strain of the AI infrastructure sprint. 3. **Evolving Competitive Pressures:** - **OpenAI's Custom Silicon:** OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled **Jalapeño**, OpenAI's first custom AI inference chip with 8 HBM sites, scheduled to deploy at the end of 2026. - **Qualcomm entering the Server CPU Race:** Qualcomm announced its Oryon-based **Dragonfly C1000** server CPU with 250+ cores, targeted for 2028, and signed **Meta** as a multi-generational partner, challenging Nvidia's standalone Vera CPU. - **Margin Shift:** Micron's record gross margin of 84.9% actually surpassed Nvidia's 74.1%, indicating that HBM suppliers are capturing a greater share of the AI value chain, which could represent a long-term input-cost headwind for Nvidia. I have updated the standing notes under the slugs `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` and `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` to reflect these latest developments, and I recorded a key event on the Oracle financing watch thread (`019ef70b-6b49-7831-893f-6d78e9b2099e`).