Cycle on Jul 11, 2026

I am starting this research cycle by listing the currently open threads on this topic to see if there are any specific pending questions or watches registered. I will also query public market data for NVIDIA (NVDA) and related hyperscalers to evaluate the current status of the AI capex story.

I will fetch the public-market view for Nvidia (NVDA) and related hyperscalers (e.g., MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) to anchor our numbers, and then perform web searches to see if there are any recent updates regarding Nvidia's AI capex story, Blackwell shipments, hyperscaler spending, or any macro headwinds. Let's start by querying `market_view` for NVDA.

I will now perform a web search to check for the latest news on Nvidia's AI capex, hyperscaler capex, Blackwell or Rubin shipments, or any new developments in June/July 2026. This will help us determine if the AI capex story remains intact, and if there are any specific events or metrics to watch. Let's run a search.

The top search results point to massive, record-breaking hyperscaler capex budgets in 2026, ranging from $600 billion to $725 billion depending on the exact sources and definitions. Let's fetch the page `https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infrastructure.html` or do a more specific web search to see if any recent Q2/Q3 2026 reports or earnings previews discuss Nvidia's current capex story. Let's run a search for "Nvidia AI capex story" or "Nvidia Blackwell shipments Q2 2026".

This is incredibly detailed. Let's look at the actual URLs. `https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infrastructure.html` is listed with a description: "Q2 FY2027 guidance of $91.0B (+85% YoY) — the fastest product ramp in NVIDIA history — confirms the Blackwell demand cycle is accelerating, not..." Let's fetch `https://alcapitaladvisory.com/research/intelligence/ai-infrastructure.html` to read the exact details of the AI capex cycle and Nvidia's guidance. This will help us update the existing note: `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`.

This CFA analysis is extremely rich in data. Let's look at the key details: - **Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 (reported May 20, 2026):** $81.6B total revenue (+85% YoY), beating consensus. Data center revenue was $75.2B (+92% YoY), split near-equally between Hyperscale ($38B) and the new ACIE segment ($37B) (AI Clouds, Industrial & Enterprise). - **Q2 FY2027 guidance:** $91.0B ±2%, confirming the Blackwell demand cycle is accelerating. - **Hyperscale Capex:** Combined Big-5 (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) 2026 capex is confirmed at ~$725B. Approximately 75% of this (~$545B) is AI-specific. - **NVIDIA captures 57¢ of every $1 hyperscalers spend**, up from 39¢ four quarters ago. - **Sovereign AI:** >$30B revenue in FY2026, deployed across ~40 countries. - **Blackwell/Rubin roadmap:** Blackwell B200 transition is underway. Vera Rubin CPU + GB300 Blackwell Ultra represent a $200B new TAM. Vera Rubin GPU production shipments are expected in Q3 FY2027, with volume ramp in Q4 FY2027. Let's read the existing notes using `read_notes` to see what exact content we have and what slugs are used. This will help us update the right notes.

The slugs we have include: - `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` - `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` To refine "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?", we should update the note `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` with the solid, verified details from our latest fetch, specifically confirming: 1. Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 results ($81.6B revenue, +85% YoY, $75.2B data center revenue, split near-equally between Hyperscale and ACIE). 2. Q2 FY2027 guidance of $91.0B (±2%), which is the fastest product ramp in Nvidia's history. 3. Big-5 capex upgraded to ~$725B (up from $710B in prior notes), showing Nvidia captures 57.4% of every $1 spent by hyperscalers (up from 39% a year prior). 4. The sovereign AI pipeline (> $30B revenue in FY2026, deployed across ~40 countries). 5. The Blackwell/Rubin roadmap status (GB300 sampling in May 2026, Vera Rubin production shipments starting in Q3 FY2027, volume ramp in Q4 FY2027). Let's do this by writing a detailed note to update `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`. We must ground it in concrete evidence and verbatim quotes from the CFA analysis. We will also update `big-tech-capex-reaches-710b-in-2026` if needed or keep it focused. Let's write the note.

I should also check if any thread or watch can be resolved or updated. Looking at the threads returned earlier: - `019ed2f6-f136-7051-a5b0-fa3b26ec02e0`: "Nvidia Q2 FY2027 Earnings Release" (Expected late August 2026). This has not fired yet (current date is July 11, 2026). - `019f10c8-53dd-729c-926a-27e735d10910`: "Alphabet Q2 2026 Earnings and Dilution Impact Tracking" (Expected late July 2026). - `019ef1e2-810a-7234-ab4a-1680b5c05e86`: "NY Governor Hochul action on Data Center Moratorium Bill" (Expected July 15, 2026). Let's do a search on the NY Governor Hochul action on the Data Center Moratorium Bill to see if she has signed or vetoed it yet, as the current date is July 11, 2026. This is very close to the fire date of July 15, 2026. Let's check.

It looks like Governor Hochul's action is still pending (veto deliberations are ongoing, and the bill is awaiting her signature or veto). Thus, the watch is still open and has not fired yet. Let's do a search on Meta Platforms potential equity raise to see if there are any updates regarding that watch (`019eb93f-9403-7dea-9c9e-9ac0765dd674`). Let's search.

It seems the Meta potential stock offering is still being weighed ("weighing a stock offering", "considering stock offering"), but has not officially been announced, sized, or priced yet as of July 11, 2026. Let's check if there are any other watches or threads we can resolve or if we are ready to finish the cycle. The brief asks: "Is Nvidia's AI capex story still intact?" We have fully addressed this by updating the note `nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book` with the solid, verified details from the Q1 FY2027 earnings and the $725B Big-5 capex figures. Let's call `finish_cycle` to complete this cycle.

I have completed this research cycle, successfully updating the standing finding on Nvidia's AI capex story (`nvidia-record-q1-results-and-trillion-dollar-order-book`) with the latest verified data from Nvidia's Q1 FY2027 earnings and the upgraded $725B Big-5 hyperscaler capex projections for 2026.