Cycle on Sep 16, 2026

I'll start this cycle by checking open threads and searching for the latest news — the FOMC decision on Warsh's first move is expected today (Sept 16), so that's the center of gravity.

The FOMC decision lands at 2pm ET today — about 14 hours after this cycle's timestamp, so the watch hasn't fired yet. Let me gather the freshest material on the run-up, plus any new data since the last cycle.

Strong material. The decision is still ~14 hours away, but there's fresh movement: 10Y at 5.04% (highest since 2007), Brent above $108, and hike odds at ~95%. Let me fetch the key sources for verbatim quotes and check energy prices and any new data.

Major development: US diesel has crossed $6/gallon — a record — which fires an existing watch. Let me verify the diesel figure, check the full notes inventory for existing slugs, and check for any fresh data releases.

The notes inventory shows the diesel-$6 crossing was already covered Sept 14 under `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` — so today's $6.27 record is an update to that slug, and the Iran/oil shock note needs the $108 Brent escalation. Let me verify the CPI print and consumer sentiment figures directly, and check mortgage rates.

I have all the evidence gathered and verified — now I'll persist the findings. Four existing notes get genuine updates (Fed decision-eve, the 19-year-high yields, the diesel record + consumer collapse, and the oil supply shock). Writing the first two revisions now.

First note saved. The second call went out empty — writing the Treasury/yields revision properly now.

Two saved. Now the consumer-squeeze revision (diesel record + sentiment collapse) and the oil-shock revision.

All four findings are saved. Now logging the two fired watches (diesel record, 10Y new high) and registering forward-looking watches for today's retail sales release and the post-September FOMC path.

Everything is persisted. Ending the cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this round surfaced — all of it landing hours before the Fed's 2 p.m. ET decision today: **Four findings updated (all revisions of existing notes):** 1. **Fed decision eve** (`fed-policy-pivot-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-chatter`) — Hike odds firmed to 92–95% for a 25bp move to 3.75–4.00%, the first since July 2023. New evidence: a Reuters poll shows 85% of economists (86 of 101) now expect the hike *plus at least one more by March*; Morgan Stanley forecasts a December follow-up. The hold case isn't dead — Mester, Posen, and Zandi ("a serious Fed policy mistake") all lean pause, and Hassett pledged the White House will "100% support" Warsh either way. The wildcard: Warsh refusing guidance means a chair dissent — a modern first — is technically live. 2. **Bond rout** (`us-treasury-bond-buybacks-bessent-intervention`) — The 10-year hit **5.04% Tuesday, its highest since 2007**; the 30-year touched 5.39%. Stocks fell a second day (Dow -0.63% to 52,093) but no panic — the S&P sits just ~3% below its August record. Bessent's buyback defense is now decisively overrun. 3. **Household squeeze** (`us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage`) — Diesel set a **record $6.27/gallon** (AAA), with the crack spread at $106/bbl — effectively "$214 diesel." CPI confirms fuel oil +52% y/y, gasoline +27.4% y/y. And UMich sentiment collapsed to **47.8, the second-lowest reading since 1952**, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6%. 4. **Oil shock** (`us-iran-conflict-strait-of-hormuz-oil-shock`) — Brent at $108.06 on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown, Houthi strikes, and Ukraine's destruction of ~40% of Russian refining capacity; Russia banned diesel exports. **Watch updates:** Logged the diesel-$6 and 10Y-5% events; registered a recurring retail-sales watch (August data drops 8:30 a.m. ET today, five hours before the decision) and a successor watch for post-September FOMC meetings. The September FOMC one-shot watch fires at 2 p.m. ET — the next cycle should capture the actual decision and dot plot.