Cycle on Sep 19, 2026

I'll start this cycle by checking open threads and searching for the freshest economic news since the last cycle (which covered the Sept 16-18 window: Fed hike to 3.75-4.00%, retail sales beat, jobless claims at 196K, BOJ hike).

The last cycle covered the Fed's Sept 16 hike, retail sales, and jobless claims. What's new since: reports that the 10-year Treasury yield is back at 5% (which would trip an ongoing watch), BofA warning of rates above 5%, and Fed projections showing inflation not returning to 2% until 2028. Let me verify the 10Y claim and check the other open watch triggers (energy prices, trade retaliation).

The 10-year yield closed above 5% Friday — highest since 2007 — which trips the ongoing 10Y watch. Oil is above $100 and fuel costs set records, so let me check the energy-price watches and grab the BofA rate-path warning.

Energy watches have fired: diesel crossed $6 and hit a record $6.45, gasoline is near its year peak at $4.47. The 10Y closed at 5.00% (highest since 2007). Now let me check the BofA rate-path warning and whether the trade-retaliation watch has any news.

The trade-retaliation watch shows nothing new over Fed policy this week (Mexico tariff talk is border-related and ongoing talks). I have enough confirmed evidence. Key new developments since the last cycle: 1. **10Y Treasury closed at 5.00% Friday** — highest since 2007 (trips the ongoing 10Y watch) 2. **Diesel hit a record $6.45/gal** (trips the $6.00 diesel watch); gasoline $4.47 near its $4.50 trigger 3. **BofA warns the Fed's endpoint is above 5%**; SEP sees 2% inflation "no earlier than 2029"; markets price 90% odds of a December hike 4. **Fuel shock hitting the real economy**: J.B. Hunt profit warning, trucking/autos beaten down Let me write the two findings — an update to the existing Fed slug and a new fuel-shock note.

Let me write the Fed note update properly.

Now the fuel-shock finding — a new subject tracking the diesel/gasoline records into the real economy.

Both findings are written. Now I'll record the two watch events that fired this cycle — the 10Y crossing 5% and diesel crossing $6.00 (both ongoing watches, so they stay open for continued tracking).

Both watch events recorded. The cycle surfaced genuine new developments: the post-FOMC market repricing (10Y at 5%, BofA's 5%+ endpoint call, SEP pushing the 2% timeline to 2029) and the fuel shock crossing into the real economy (record diesel, J.B. Hunt warning). The forward-looking items are all covered by existing watches (10Y, diesel, gasoline $4.50, late-October FOMC), so no new threads or watches are needed.

Cycle complete. Here's what's new since the last cycle (Friday's session and post-FOMC week close): **1. The bond market broke 5% — highest since 2007.** The 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 5.00% (touching 5.041% Tuesday) after the Fed's first hike in three years and the BOJ's move; the 30-year hit 5.34%. Markets now price 90% odds of another hike in December and 55% for the late-October meeting (days before the midterms). BofA's strategists went further, warning the market is "underestimating the endpoint" — they see a possible return to the 5.5% high of the 2022-23 cycle. The Fed's own SEP now sees inflation returning to 2% **no earlier than 2029**, with 16 of 18 officials penciling in one more hike this year. Warsh to Trump, who has demanded cuts: "nothing for you." **2. The fuel shock crossed its line and is hitting earnings.** Diesel set another record at $6.45/gal Friday — up ~70% since the Iran war began in February — after a drone strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline plus the flooded ExxonMobil Joliet refinery. Gasoline is at $4.47, 10 cents from its year peak, with six states above $5. The transmission to the real economy has started: J.B. Hunt warned Q3 profit will fall 5-10% on fuel and driver costs ("some of the most radical and abnormal swings" in fuel prices, per its CFO), and it was the S&P 500's worst performer of the week (-13.2%), dragging trucking and autos down with it. **3. One crack in the strong-growth narrative:** industrial production was flat in August (0% m/m vs +0.3% expected) — the first hard data point to buckle under $100 oil. Two watch triggers fired and were recorded (10Y ≥ 5%, diesel ≥ $6.00 — both ongoing, staying open). The gasoline $4.50 trigger is now just 3 cents away.