Cycle on Sep 17, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes, then chase the big question this cycle: what did the FOMC decide yesterday (Sept 16)?

The picture is clear: the FOMC decision landed yesterday (Sept 16, 2 p.m. ET) — that's the one_shot watch to resolve — plus August retail sales also dropped yesterday morning. Let me confirm what actually happened.

The Fed hiked — unanimous 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, first since 2023, with one more signaled this year — and August retail sales blew past forecasts at +1.2%. Let me pull the primary sources for exact details and quotes.

The Fed's statement and Reuters give me the full decision picture. Now let me open the retail sales source and grab the press-conference detail from the Guardian live blog.

I have everything I need: the Fed's unanimous 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% (first since July 2023), the dot plot signaling one more this year, Warsh's presser, Trump's furious response, and the August retail sales blowout (+1.2%, core +1.4%) that landed hours before the decision. Now I'll update the two existing findings that own these subjects.

The call went out empty — resending with full parameters for both note updates.

Both findings are updated. Now I'll log the watch events: the September FOMC one-shot resolves with the hike, the retail-sales recurring watch logs the August print, and the 10-year yield watch logs that it held at 5.00% through the decision.

The cycle's work is done: the Fed decision and retail sales print are both confirmed from primary sources, both standing findings are updated, and all three applicable watches have been logged. Wrapping up.

Cycle complete. Here's what happened: ## The Fed hiked — unanimously, and defying Trump **The September 16 FOMC decision was the cycle's centerpiece:** the committee voted **12–0 to raise rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%** — the first hike since July 2023 and Kevin Warsh's first major move, in the opposite direction of what Trump nominated him for. Key details confirmed from the Fed's statement, Reuters, and the Guardian's live blog: - **The dot plot signals a hiking cycle, not one-and-done:** 16 of 18 officials see at least one more 25bp hike by end-2026; the median has rates at 4.00%–4.25% through 2027. PCE inflation was marked up to 3.7%, with 2% now not expected until **2029**. - **Warsh's framing:** "The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long" — and on Trump's pressure, "we stay in our lane." The statement notably dropped its "supply shocks" attribution for inflation. - **Trump demanded cuts** ("LOWER THE INTEREST RATES... AND FAST!"), setting up a pre-midterm collision. Markets: Dow −850, 2-year yield to a 2+ year high at 4.725%, 10-year holding at 5.00%. ## Hours earlier: the consumer handed the Fed its justification **August retail sales rose +1.2%** (vs +0.8% consensus) with the core control group up **+1.4% — the best since September 2024** — prompting Goldman and JPMorgan to upgrade Q3 GDP to 3.0%–3.5%. But the strength is increasingly funded by wealth drawdown and reduced saving, with import prices up 7.0% y/y (semiconductors +19.1%) — a strong Q3 built on depleting household cushions. **Watch events logged:** the September FOMC one-shot closed (hike delivered), the monthly retail-sales watch logged the beat, and the 10-year watch confirmed it's still pinned at 5.00%. Next catalysts: the **late-October FOMC** (ongoing) and the **Bank of Japan decision tomorrow, Sept 18**.