Cycle on Sep 25, 2026

I'll start this research cycle by checking the open threads and prior notes, then hunt for fresh material since the last cycle (which covered the Sept 16 Fed hike, the retail sales beat, and the 10-year's brush with 5%).

I have the full picture: 15 open threads (including a one_shot watch on Freddie Mac's 30-year rate crossing 7.0% that was due to fire **yesterday**, Sept 24), and prior findings current through Sept 22-23. This cycle needs what changed Sept 23-25: the Freddie Mac weekly print, Thursday's jobless claims, the 10-year's path after breaching 5%, pump prices, and any Fed speak. Let me search for the freshest material.

Major developments already visible: **Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed crossed 7% for the first time in 20 months (7.03%)** — the one_shot watch has fired — and the 10-year has surged to a 19-year high above 5.1%, with a Treasury "surprise move" in response. Let me read the key sources before writing anything.

The NBC piece on Treasury buybacks is from early September (stale for this cycle — the prior note already covers it). The genuinely fresh material: Freddie Mac's 7.03% print, the 10-year at a 19-year high above 5.1% with the 30-year at 5.45% (highest since 2004), claims at 197K, and a jump in August new home sales. Let me pull the S&P Global PMI story and the 30-year bond story, plus current pump prices.

Gasoline is hovering right at the $4.50 watch threshold (~$4.47-$4.50) without a confirmed cross — I'll leave that watch alone. The S&P Global PMI flash (58.4, five-year high, prices paid 66.4) is a major new macro datapoint. Now let me get the 30-year bond story and Thursday's market wrap with the Hormuz-deal headlines.

This is a rich cycle: the 30-year hit 5.48% (highest since 2004), traders now price ~69% odds of an October hike, Philly Fed's Paulson turned hawkish, and there's a reported US-Iran "phased deal" to reopen Hormuz. Let me pull the phased-deal report and the Barr story to round out the evidence.

I have all the evidence I need. Now I'll write the five finding updates — one per theme, each reusing its existing stable slug — then record the watch events, register the new Hormuz-deal watch, and finish the cycle.

The call went out empty — let me resend with the full payloads for all five note updates.

Three notes saved. Now the Fed-policy and Iran/Hormuz updates.

All five findings are saved. Now I'll record the two watch events (Freddie Mac 7% one_shot fires and closes; the 10-year ≥5% ongoing watch fires but stays open) and register a new one_shot watch for the US-Iran phased deal.

Events recorded and the new watch registered. Ending the cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what this cycle surfaced (all Sept 23–25 developments, written up as five updates to existing findings): **1. Mortgage rates officially crossed 7%** — Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed hit **7.03%** (first 7-handle since Jan 2025, fifth straight weekly increase); Mortgage News Daily's daily index closed Thursday at **7.45%**, and refi applications are down 62% y/y. August new home sales surged 6.4% only because builders cut median prices 5.8%. The one_shot watch on the 7% crossing fired and is now closed. **2. The long-end selloff accelerated** — the 30-year hit **5.48% (highest since 2004)**, the 10-year held above 5.1% (19-year high) after touching 5.20%, and the 5-year breached 5% on a weak $70B auction. Traders are now "eyeing 6%." Bessent's interventions are described by Reuters as "to little avail." The ongoing 10Y≥5% watch was re-confirmed as fired. **3. Labor refuses to bend** — claims fell to **197K** (near 57-year lows), continuing claims sit at three-year lows, and September unemployment is forecast steady at 4.1% — removing any employment-side brake on the Fed. **4. The Fed's hawks are pre-committing** — Barr floated "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed" (rare forward guidance under Warsh), Paulson flipped hawkish, Williams endorsed a year-end hike, and October odds hit ~70% after the flash PMI ran at 58.4 with input prices at nearly four-year highs. **5. The swing factor: a phased US-Iran deal** — Reuters reports talks on reopening Hormuz in exchange for lifting the blockade, with Trump expecting a deal after the midterms and Brent still above $105. I registered a new one_shot watch so a future cycle catches the deal (or breakdown) immediately. The throughline: the Fed's tightening is now fully transmitted to household borrowing costs while the oil shock keeps pump prices pinned — and the single biggest variable for relief before the midterms is Hormuz.