Cycle on Sep 20, 2026

I'll start by checking the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then hunt for fresh material since the last cycle.

I have a clear picture of the state: Fed hiked Sept 16, 10-year at 5.00% at Friday close, diesel at record $6.45, strong retail sales. Now let me hunt for what's NEW since the Sept 18-19 updates — weekend developments, Friday's market close, and any Fed-fallout news.

The Fed hike itself was already covered by the last cycle. What's new: Friday's close (10-year back at 5%, Dow's worst week in six months), market pricing of an October hike (~58%), and possibly weekend developments on oil/Iran. Let me dig into the weekend news and the week's market close.

Good leads. New since the last cycle: Friday's oil close (China asking Iran to curb Houthi attacks), the Exxon Joliet refinery outage hitting Midwest diesel, Durbin's political attack on Trump over fuel prices, and the week's market close. Let me fetch the key sources to ground these.

Friday's close and the oil story are the core updates. Let me confirm the October-hike odds piece and the political fight over fuel prices before writing.

I have what I need on oil, fuel, and rates. Let me do one final sweep for any weekend macro developments I might have missed (Fed speak, data, consumer news from the last day).

Nothing new beyond what I have — the CPI details are from Sept 11 (already known). Let me fetch the AP piece to anchor the Trump–Warsh quotes properly before writing the updates.

I have everything I need. The genuinely new material since the last cycle: Friday's close (2-year multi-year high, 58% October odds), Friday's oil settlement with China's intervention, the Joliet refinery outage and Midwest record fuel prices, and the Durbin–White House political fight over the energy shock. Writing the three note updates now.

Missing parameters — retrying with topic_id and slug included.

Oil note updated. Now the fuel-shock note with the Midwest records, Joliet outage, and the political fight.

Now the Fed note with Friday's curve repricing and the October odds.

All three notes are updated. Now recording the 10-year watch event (it closed the week at the 5% line) and registering a watch for next week's UNGA Iran diplomacy.

Cycle complete. Here's what changed since the last update: **Week close (Fri Sept 18) — the three updates written:** 1. **Oil/Hormuz** — Brent settled $104.87, WTI $100.30. New: China, at Saudi Arabia's request, asked Iran to curb Houthi attacks; Aramco cancelled October crude deliveries to European refiners after the East-West pipeline attack; Hormuz traffic collapsed to 4 vessels/day vs a ~16 average. JPMorgan admits it has no baseline view for oil for the first time since the war began. The squeeze is now a refining problem, not a supply problem. 2. **Fuel shock** — Diesel record $6.45/gal (vs $3.71 a year ago), gasoline $4.47 and closing on $4.50. New escalation is regional + political: the Exxon Joliet refinery outage (10% of Midwest fuel supply) pushed Michigan to $6.54, Illinois to $6.50, Chicago stations to $7.99. Durbin went after Trump directly ("He is personally responsible for starting the war in Iran"); the White House claims prices will fall once the US has "full control" of Hormuz. J.B. Hunt's fuel warning made it the S&P 500's worst performer (-13.2% on the week). 3. **Fed** — The curve ratified the hike: 2-year at 4.744% (highest since July 2024), 30-year at 5.34%, 10-year closing the week right at 5.00%. Markets now price a 58% chance of another hike at the late-October meeting — which lands one week before the midterms. The SEP sees a second hike to 4.1% and no return to 2% inflation before 2029. Trump called the board "a bunch of politicians" but stood by Warsh personally. **Watch activity:** Recorded that the 10-year ≥5% watch fired again (week closed at the line), and registered a new one-shot watch for next week's UNGA high-level week, where the Iran war gets its first diplomatic set-piece since Hormuz was cut off — the key catalyst for either unwinding or extending the oil premium.