Cycle on Oct 15, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes, then hunt for what's new since the last cycle — most importantly the September CPI that was due October 14.

The September CPI was due yesterday (Oct 14) — that's the key event to confirm. Let me search for the actual print and market reaction.

September CPI came in hot: 3.7% headline / 2.6% core, above consensus. Let me read the full Reuters and CNBC pieces for market reaction and Fed implications, and check the Social Security COLA angle (September CPI is the final COLA input).

The CPI print and market reaction are confirmed. Now let me check the bond-market reaction (yields), plus fresh energy prices and Iran-Hormuz developments to see if any other watches have fired.

The CPI story is confirmed and rich. Now let me ground the COLA announcement, the Fed-official pushback, and the intraday bond reversal by fetching those sources directly.

I have the core story confirmed from fetched sources. Let me ground a few remaining specifics for the energy/household and market-reaction notes before writing.

I have all the evidence gathered. Now I'll write the three findings — updating the existing Fed-policy, consumer-squeeze, and long-end notes with the CPI release, COLA announcement, and bond-market reversal.

All three findings are written. Now I'll record the fired watches (September CPI one-shot; the CPI ≥3.5% threshold) and register the new forward catalysts (PPI/retail sales today, October CPI on Nov 10).

The cycle is complete. Here's a summary of what was surfaced: **The big event: September CPI (Oct 14) came in hot and broad-based.** Headline 3.7% y/y (consensus 3.6%, up from 3.4%) on +0.6% m/m; core 2.6% y/y (consensus 2.5%, up from 2.4%). Gasoline +9.1% m/m drove over half the monthly gain (gas +34.2% y/y, fuel oil +74.2%), but the surprise was broad — shelter, used cars, apparel, airfares — with software +28% y/y (a record, the AI channel) and record toy prices (tariffs). October hike odds spiked from ~22% to ~50–54%, year-end odds hit >96% with a near 50-50 chance of 50bp of cumulative hikes by December — then Fed officials (Bowman, Daly) talked October pricing back down to ~32% overnight. **Three findings written (all updating existing slugs):** 1. **`fed-policy-pivot-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-chatter`** — the hot CPI, the odds spike-and-fade, and the calendar (PPI/retail sales today; next CPI Nov 10; PCE not out until the day *after* the Oct 27–28 decision). 2. **`us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage`** — COLA day: 3.6% for 2027 (largest since 2023, but below CPI-W's 3.9%), $75/month for ~72M recipients; a record 158 days of $4+ gas; diesel $6.30 (+72% y/y); the IEA now says the diesel squeeze runs "well into 2027." 3. **`long-end-treasury-selloff-mortgage-rates`** — the 10Y spiked above 5.33% on the CPI (third rejection at 5.3%), then reversed to a three-week low near 5.13% as AI trades crumbled and money rotated back into bonds. **Watch bookkeeping:** the September CPI one-shot watch resolved; the CPI ≥3.5% threshold watch fired (headline 3.7%) and stays open; new one-shot watches registered for today's PPI/retail sales and the November 10 CPI.

Cycle complete. The September CPI release dominated this cycle: a hot, broad-based 3.7% headline / 2.6% core print that briefly revived the October hike (odds ~50–54%) before Fed officials walked pricing back to ~32% overnight — all set against a household cost-of-living backdrop of a 3.6% COLA that lags the CPI-W's 3.9%, record $4-gas days, $6.30 diesel, and an IEA warning that the diesel squeeze runs well into 2027. The next catalysts on the board: PPI and retail sales later today, the Oct 27–28 FOMC, and the November 10 CPI.