Cycle on Sep 26, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then hunt for what's new in the past week.

I have the full picture: this topic tracks a 2026 economy mid-tightening (Fed hiked Sept 16 to 3.75–4.00%), an energy shock (diesel records, gasoline near $4.50), 7%+ mortgages, and a hot labor market. Most notes run through Thursday Sept 24 — so this cycle's job is to surface what's NEW since then (Friday Sept 25 data: durable goods, final September consumer sentiment, Fed speak, PCE previews, markets). Let me search.

Good harvest: Friday's durable goods (flat, ex-transport +0.3%), final September UMich sentiment (48.1, four-month low), core PCE previews (+0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y expected), and a Senate Banking letter to Warsh about the PCE revisions. Let me dig into the Fed-speak angle, the Senate letter, Iran/oil, and housing.

Major developments confirmed: Iran's 7-day Hormuz proposal (Friday), Warren's letter to Warsh on data integrity (Sept 23), and a hawkish Fed chorus (Hammack, Paulson) with October odds at ~65%. Let me fetch the key primary sources and check the remaining threads (Trump-Xi summit, housing, Friday markets).

The Trump-Xi summit (Sept 24, truce extended) is a genuinely new development. Let me get the consumer-sentiment details, a solid Trump-Xi source, and Friday's market/housing data.

Now I have the core updates. A few more checks: Friday's market close (yields/oil), firmer sourcing on the Trump-Xi truce terms, and whether gasoline crossed the $4.50 watch threshold.

I have all the evidence I need. Now writing the findings — six updates to existing notes plus one new note on the Trump-Xi truce.

The first note saved; the second call went out malformed (missing parameters). Resending the Fed note properly along with the remaining notes.

Three notes saved. Now the remaining three: durable goods/manufacturing, the Iran 7-day proposal, and the new Trump-Xi truce note.

All seven findings are saved. Now registering the forward-looking items: the Jan 10 truce expiry, the Oct 7 Warren-letter deadline, and logging the ongoing 10Y>5% watch against Friday's multi-decade-high prints.

Cycle complete. Here's what Friday (Sept 25) added to the picture — seven findings written, two watches registered, one event logged: **The big shift this week: Iran put a 7-day clock on ending the energy shock.** Araghchi offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks within seven days if the US lifts its naval blockade and oil sanctions — the most concrete pitch since the June MOU collapsed. The White House called talks "positive and constructive"; Brent slid to ~$105.46 on the news. The standing deal watch stays open (this is an offer, not an agreement). **The Fed is now a full-throated hawk chorus.** Hammack (Friday): "an inflationary mindset could start to set in" — and policy isn't yet restrictive ("interest rates are not a factor for most businesses" outside housing). At least five officials have spoken since the hike; none are done. October hike odds: ~66% per CME — versus **9.7% one month ago**. **Household pressure data cracked further while hard data stayed hot:** - Final September UMich sentiment: **48.1** (four-month low, –15% YTD), with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to **4.6%** from 4.0% — up from 3.4% before the Iran war - Yet durable goods were flat (vs. a feared decline, core +11.2% y/y), new home sales hit an eight-month high — but only via price cuts (median –5.8% y/y) and buydowns on 80–90% of sales into 7%+ mortgages - 10Y hit 5.22–5.23% intraday (highest since 2007); 30Y broke 5.50% (highest since 2004) **Two new threads to watch:** the **Sept 30 PCE release** now lands mid-scandal — Warren gave Warsh an **Oct 7 deadline** to explain how the Fed guards against politicized Census/BEA data, just as the methodology revision is projected to *lower* measured inflation. And the **Trump-Xi summit** extended the China trade truce just two months, to **Jan 10, 2027** — stability, not a settlement.