Cycle on Jun 24, 2026

I will start by checking the existing open threads and the current notes for this topic to understand the baseline and see if there are any specific questions or watches that need attention.

I will search the web for the latest US economic data, Federal Reserve updates, and household economic pressures that have emerged in the last seven days (mid-to-late June 2026).

I will run a search for the latest macroeconomic data released in the last few days or upcoming releases (such as PCE inflation, GDP revisions, jobless claims, and consumer spending/sentiment) to see how the US economy and household pressures are developing.

I see that there is some very recent financial news, including stock market drops, Trump threatening a "toll" collection at the Strait of Hormuz (which could affect oil and imported inflation), and upcoming PCE and GDP data. Let's do a search on other economic indicators that came out recently, such as US jobless claims, housing, or consumer confidence. Let's search for "jobless claims June 2026", "consumer confidence June 2026", and "Strait of Hormuz toll Trump".

Let's do a search on the "Strait of Hormuz" toll and Trump's threats. This seems very relevant to "imported inflation", energy costs, and geopolitical pressures. Let's see what is happening there. I will search "Strait of Hormuz toll Trump June 2026" or "Hormuz toll Trump June 2026".

This is a fascinating geopolitical and economic development. Let's fetch some of these articles to understand what's happening. I will fetch: 1. `https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5932836-trump-threatens-strait-of-hormuz-tolls/` (Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz tolls) 2. `https://fortune.com/2026/06/23/strait-hormuz-tolls-iran-us-shipping-mines-ceasefire/` (The Strait of Hormuz is 'open' — but it's mined, half-empty, and subject to tolls both sides say they might charge) 3. `https://spectrumlocalnews.com/us/snplus/politics/2026/06/17/federal-open-market-committee-decisions-federal-reserve-kevin-warsh-jerome-powell-interest-rates` (Warsh launches review of Fed's communications, data sources) Let's fetch them one by one. First, let's fetch the Fortune article on the Strait of Hormuz and shipping/tolls.

The Strait of Hormuz situation represents a massive geopolitical and economic development. The "Strait of Hormuz is 'open' — but it's mined, half-empty, and subject to tolls both sides say they might charge" is a direct factor in oil prices, supply chain friction, and imported inflation. Let's check the status of the "Expiration of 60-Day US-Iran Final Peace Deal Negotiation Window" watch. The ID of that watch is `019ede0a-aa3b-7730-9c26-fd84ea5ca890`. It is scheduled for August 16, 2026. The 60-day window started when the MOU was signed on June 17, 2026. This watch is ongoing or one_shot, and hasn't fired yet because we are in June. But we should note the progress and the fact that Trump threatened tolls if a final deal is not reached. Let's look at the "Lisa Cook Fed Firing Case" watch (`019eb4d7-184c-77c8-b368-bda79ff76be9`). The search results mentioned: - "The Supreme Court has allowed one of the Fed governors, Lisa Cook, to remain in her role despite Trump's attempt last year to oust her as it considers her ..." - Let's search specifically for "Supreme Court Lisa Cook June 2026" or "SCOTUS Lisa Cook Fed June 2026" to see if there was a ruling or an order. This is a very critical legal/ethics challenge to Fed independence. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch one of the recent articles on Lisa Cook's legal battle, specifically the CNBC or Guardian one from June 18, 2026, or the MSN one from 2 days ago (`vi-AA26cuPq`). Let's fetch the Guardian one: `https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/18/lisa-cook-legal-security-fees-trump-fed` or the Reuters one. Let's try the Reuters one: `https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/feds-cook-spent-12-million-legal-services-fighting-firing-by-trump-2026-06-18/`. Let's fetch it.

The Reuters article is from June 18, 2026. It confirms that the Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end of this month (June 2026) in Lisa Cook's case, which is seen as pivotal to the Fed's ability to retain independence. This matches the "SCOTUS Ruling on Lisa Cook Fed Firing Case" watch (`019eb4d7-184c-77c8-b368-bda79ff76be9`). The watch is set to fire on whether SCOTUS rules. Let's see if there are any updates on whether they have ruled yet. The current date in our prompt is June 24, 2026. So the ruling is expected "by the end of this month" or "in the coming days" (as noted in the MSN video from 2 days ago, "odds are against Trump: Bombshell Supreme Court rulings incoming on birthright citizenship & Cook"). This means the watch has not fired yet, but it is extremely close. I will keep this watch open and write/update the note about the ethics filing and the impending SCOTUS decision. Let's check the existing prior findings. We have: - `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges` (Federal Reserve Independence Under Fire: Governor Cook’s Ethics Filing Discloses $1.3M in Third-Party Legal and Security…) This note already exists! Let's read it using `read_notes` or fetch it if needed, to see if we can update it with more specific details from the Reuters article (such as the specific donor organizations State Democracy Defenders Fund and Contina Impact, the amounts, and the impending end-of-month SCOTUS ruling). Let's do `read_notes` first to see the current notes for this topic.

Let's read the note body of `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges` and `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` (wait, the list shows `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` is actually "U.S.-Iran Peace Deal: Switzerland Talks Begin Amid Renewed Strait of Hormuz Closure and Lebanon Escalation"). Let's read these notes to see how we can update them with the latest developments. We can't use a specific tool to read the note directly unless we fetch or read it, but wait, do we have a read_note tool? Let's check our declarations. No, we don't have a `read_note` (singular) tool, only `read_notes` (plural) which returns the previews. Oh, wait, the `read_notes` description says: "List the current set of notes for a research topic. Returns slug, title, preview, updated_at, and source_count for each note so the cycle can reference prior findings without re-fetching them." So we can only see the previews. Wait, let's look at the previews or search our own notes. If we want to update a note, we can write a note with the same slug. Let's see if there are other updates. What about the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's threats of tolls? This is a major update. The note `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` is about "U.S.-Iran Peace Deal: Switzerland Talks Begin Amid Renewed Strait of Hormuz Closure and Lebanon Escalation". The latest news from June 20-23, 2026 is that: 1. Shipping traffic has picked up slightly (71 ships over the weekend) but is still way below prewar levels (100-130 ships/day) because the main channel is mined and ships are using alternative routes. 2. Trump has threatened that the US will impose its own tolls on the Strait of Hormuz if a final deal is not reached within the 60-day negotiating window, which began on June 17, 2026. This has created a massive controversy, with critics arguing the President has no authority to do so and that it violates international maritime law (unimpeded transit passage under UNCLOS). 3. Iran's lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf says they will manage the strait under international maritime law, but they previously established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and still expect ships to register, raising fears of "stealth tolls" or a return to pay-to-pass schemes after the 60-day window. 4. The MAGA base is fracturing over how Trump ended the war, and shipping/insurance analysts remain highly nervous about the stability of the ceasefire. This is a direct and major update to the U.S.-Iran Peace Deal and Strait of Hormuz situation, which strongly influences oil prices and imported inflation. Let's update `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage`! Let's also look for updates on the US economy. Is there any new macroeconomic data since June 22? Let's search for "PCE inflation June 2026" or "May PCE inflation 2026 forecast" to see what the expectations are. The PCE release is on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our current date is June 24, 2026. So the PCE release is in two days. Wait, are there other data releases? Let's search for "new home sales June 2026" or "durable goods June 2026" or "GDP Q1 2026 third estimate" to see if there is any other data. Let's do a search.

Let's fetch the Conference Board article from June 23, 2026: `https://www.conference-board.org/research/global-economy-briefs/cpi-insights-may-2026` ("Limited Passthrough from Energy Shock Solidifies Fed’s Status Quo"). This provides great insight into how inflation, energy shocks, and the Fed's stance are interacting right now. Let's fetch it.

Ah, this is a member-only publication, but the summary points give us excellent information: - May CPI shows that the war-related energy price shock is weakening consumer purchasing power, but broader inflation passthrough remains limited. - Consumers are focusing on necessities, tamping down demand for discretionary goods and services, which helps cap inflation for those items. - Tariff-related price shock seems to be largely over, and shelter-related inflation should have limited impact on CPI ahead. - The Fed is expected to look through the supply shock and remain firmly on hold, likely through the rest of 2026, as long as spillovers into broader categories remain contained. Let's also search for the latest initial jobless claims data. Weekly jobless claims stayed elevated amid seasonal volatility. Let's see: "Weekly jobless claims fall 4,000 to 226,000" for the week ending June 13, 2026. This was reported on June 18, 2026. Let's fetch the Reuters article on weekly jobless claims: `https://www.reuters.com/business/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-amid-low-layoffs-2026-06-18/` to get the specifics. This will help us update the labor market resilience note.

This is an incredibly rich and useful article. It provides several key data points: - Initial jobless claims dropped 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ended June 13, 2026. This is slightly above expectations of 225,000. It shows that claims have increased for three straight weeks prior, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for the year. - Continuing claims increased 24,000 to 1.81 million during the week ended June 6, 2026. This reflects a lack of hiring, as people are experiencing longer bouts of joblessness. - The median duration of unemployment jumped to 11.6 weeks in May from 11.0 weeks in April (the longest stretch since November 2021). - The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey for June showed a rebound in Mid-Atlantic factory activity, but the "expected prices received measure" is at its highest level since summer 2021, and if it rises by two more points, it will be the highest since the early 1980s. This is a "troubling picture for the Fed" under Chairman Warsh, who is determined to hit the 2% inflation target. - This is a direct update to `us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026`! Let's also look for updates on the "Strait of Hormuz" and U.S.-Iran peace deal. The initial ceasefire agreement signed on June 17, 2026 (the 14-point Islamabad MOU) established a 60-day negotiation window. Let's see what happened over the weekend of June 20-21, 2026: - Iran declared that it "reclosed" the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday/Sunday (June 20-21) citing Israel's latest attacks on Lebanon. - However, the U.S. contested this, and maritime tracking data (Kpler) showed that 71 ships actually passed through the strait between Friday and Sunday (with a peak of 35 crossings on Saturday). This is still way below the prewar average of 100 to 130 vessels per day. - The main central route of the Strait of Hormuz remains mined and closed. Ships must use the smaller northern route (Iranian waters) or southern route (Omani waters). - On Saturday, June 20, President Trump posted on Truth Social suggesting that the U.S. might begin charging its own tolls in the Strait of Hormuz for "services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East" if a final peace deal is not reached within the 60-day window. This has caused an uproar, as legal experts and maritime associations argue that a toll regime violates international maritime law (the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, UNCLOS, which guarantees unimpeded "transit passage"). - Iran had previously set up the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to collect tolls and still expects transiting ships to register, raising fears of "stealth tolls" or a pay-to-pass scheme after the 60-day ceasefire window. - This is a massive development that directly impacts the "Expiration of 60-Day US-Iran Final Peace Deal Negotiation Window" watch, and is a perfect update to the note `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage`. Let's check if there are other threads. The thread `July 2026 FOMC Interest Rate Decision` (`019ef2a6-af3c-786c-970e-c5ea6e3c6d7c`) is a watch set for July 29, 2026. The thread `Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's First Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony` (`019ef2a6-6a11-7d1c-8d85-64156b87baa6`) is a watch set for July 14, 2026. The thread `Release of May PCE Inflation Data` (`019eed7b-9beb-783b-bce8-c7eec359117f`) is a watch set for June 26, 2026. The thread `US Personal Saving Ratio falls below 2.0%` (`019ee857-b465-708f-8e01-27ea9ec80434`) is an ongoing watch. The thread `Expiration of 60-Day US-Iran Final Peace Deal Negotiation Window` (`019ede0a-aa3b-7730-9c26-fd84ea5ca890`) is a watch set for August 16, 2026. The thread `Release of Fed Operational Reform Task Force Reports` (`019ed8e8-c3fe-78ea-a536-fa2a854b27d5`) is a watch set for December 31, 2026. The thread `SCOTUS Ruling on Lisa Cook Fed Firing Case` (`019eb4d7-184c-77c8-b368-bda79ff76be9`) is a watch. The thread `US CPI Inflation Rate Threshold` (`019e9b16-f653-78ff-9664-dcb11042e1a1`) is an ongoing watch. Wait, let's write updates for the three main notes that have had major developments: 1. `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges` (updating with Lisa Cook's ethics filing details from June 18, 2026, disclosing $1.2M in legal support from State Democracy Defenders Fund and Contina Impact, and the upcoming SCOTUS ruling expected by end of June). 2. `us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026` (updating with initial jobless claims at 226,000, continuing claims rising to 1.81M, the median duration of unemployment jumping to 11.6 weeks in May, and the Philadelphia Fed's surging "expected prices received" measure). 3. `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` (updating with the latest Strait of Hormuz developments: the brief weekend "reclosure" by Iran, Kpler tracking showing 71 ship transits vs prewar 100-130, the central route remaining mined, and Trump's Truth Social post threatening US-imposed tolls if a final deal isn't reached within the 60-day window, spark massive legal/maritime disputes). Let's double-check if we need to write any other notes. Wait, let's write these three notes first. Remember, the rules say: - Call `write_note` for each distinct theme or story worth persisting — ONE note per theme, never a combined write-up. - Every substantive finding must: - name and link the actual thing (the story, article, paper, or page that was posted/published) — not just "the discussion", - carry 1-2 REPRESENTATIVE VERBATIM QUOTES, copied exactly, each kept with the link it came from, - then say what it means. - Slugs are stable identities, not per-cycle labels. Reuse the same slugs: - `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges` - `us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026` - `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` - To link ANOTHER finding from a note body, write its slug as a wikilink — `[[its-slug]]`. - No YAML frontmatter — the title is the first `# ` heading and the slug is the slug parameter you pass. Let's write the first note: `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges`. Let's review the details from the Reuters article: - File date of disclosure: Thursday, June 18, 2026. - Total reported legal services payments: almost $1.2 million ($1,174,297). - Specifically: $696,346 from the State Democracy Defenders Fund and $477,951 from Contina Impact. - Contina Impact also paid $143,908 for "security services". - Three personal friends of Cook also made contributions for security work. - State Democracy Defenders Fund is funded by John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Open Society Action Fund, with director Norm Eisen (Brookings Institution). It's targeted by Republicans in Congress over political lobbying restrictions. - Supreme Court is expected by the end of this month (June 2026) to rule in Cook's case, which is seen as pivotal to the Fed's ability to retain independence. - Trump attempted to fire Cook in August over unsubstantiated claims of mortgage borrowing impropriety. - DOJ probe into Powell over headquarters renovations has essentially ended, clearing the way for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed Chair. Let's draft the note body for `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges`.

Now, let's write the second note: `us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026`. Let's review the details: - Weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, 2026. This was slightly above expectations of 225,000 and is near the upper end of the year's 190,000-230,000 range. - Continuing claims increased by 24,000 to 1.81 million for the week ending June 6, 2026, indicating that while layoffs remain low, hiring has slowed and the unemployed are facing longer durations of joblessness. - The median duration of unemployment jumped to 11.6 weeks in May from 11.0 weeks in April, the longest stretch since November 2021. - The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey for June showed a rebound in Mid-Atlantic factory activity, but its "expected prices received" measure rose to its highest level since the summer of 2021, posing a significant challenge to the Fed's 2% inflation target. - The May CPI data shows that the war-related energy price shock is weakening consumer purchasing power, but broader inflation passthrough remains limited as consumers cut back on discretionary purchases to focus on necessities. - This creates a complex environment for the Fed under Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has signaled a hawkish stance but may find policy constrained if the labor market continues to soften while inflation expectations remain elevated. Let's write this note.

Excellent. Now let's write the third note: `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` (wait, the list shows `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` is actually "U.S.-Iran Peace Deal: Switzerland Talks Begin Amid Renewed Strait of Hormuz Closure and Lebanon Escalation"). Let's check the title in our `read_notes` result: `U.S.-Iran Peace Deal: Switzerland Talks Begin Amid Renewed Strait of Hormuz Closure and Lebanon Escalation` has the slug `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage`. Yes! So we will write to this slug to update it. Let's review the details: - The 14-point Islamabad MOU signed on June 17, 2026, initiated a 60-day negotiation window to finalize a comprehensive peace treaty. - Over the weekend of June 20-21, 2026, tensions flared as Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz "reclosed" in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. - However, the U.S. contested this, and maritime data from Kpler confirmed that shipping traffic actually continued (71 ships transited between Friday and Sunday, peaking at 35 on Saturday). - This volume remains far below the prewar average of 100 to 130 vessels per day. The main central shipping channel remains heavily mined and closed, forcing ships to navigate narrower, riskier northern (Iranian) or southern (Omani) routes. Many vessels are turning off their transponders to hide their positions. - Trump posted on Truth Social on Saturday, June 20, threatening that the U.S. would begin charging its own tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a final deal is not reached within the 60-day window, describing it as payment for "services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East." - This has caused major legal and diplomatic controversies. Legal experts and maritime trade groups (such as Intertanko) point out that a toll regime violates international maritime law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which guarantees unimpeded "transit passage" through natural straits. Unlike man-made canals (Suez/Panama), natural waterways cannot legally be subjected to tolls. - Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (which was established in May and sanctioned by the U.S.) still expects transiting vessels to register, raising fears of "stealth tolls" or a return to a pay-to-pass scheme once the 60-day ceasefire window expires. - This situation is keeping energy markets and shipping insurance rates highly volatile, posing a major threat of renewed "imported inflation" or supply chain shocks. Let's write this note.

Awesome! I have successfully updated the three notes with highly specific, fresh data from this week (mid-to-late June 2026). Let's see if we have any other watches or threads that we should resolve or record. Wait, let's review our active threads/watches: - `Release of May PCE Inflation Data` (`019eed7b-9beb-783b-bce8-c7eec359117f`) is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Today is June 24, so it hasn't fired yet. - `SCOTUS Ruling on Lisa Cook Fed Firing Case` (`019eb4d7-184c-77c8-b368-bda79ff76be9`) is expected by the end of June. Today is June 24, so it hasn't fired yet. - `Expiration of 60-Day US-Iran Final Peace Deal Negotiation Window` (`019ede0a-aa3b-7730-9c26-fd84ea5ca890`) is scheduled for August 16, 2026. - `Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's First Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony` (`019ef2a6-6a11-7d1c-8d85-64156b87baa6`) is scheduled for July 14, 2026. - `July 2026 FOMC Interest Rate Decision` (`019ef2a6-af3c-786c-970e-c5ea6e3c6d7c`) is scheduled for July 29, 2026. Is there any thread we can resolve? Wait, there are no open threads of type "question" or "investigation" or "contradiction" that are currently ready to be closed, because all the listed threads are forward-looking watches (type `watch`). Let's double check if we have any other threads in the `list_threads` response. Ah! The `list_threads` response showed only watches. Wait, let's verify if there are any other threads in the list. Yes, all 8 items in the `threads` list are of `kind: 'watch'`. That means they are all forward-looking watches. None of them have fired yet, but some are very close (like the PCE release on June 26, 2026, and the SCOTUS Lisa Cook ruling by the end of June 2026). Let's double-check if we need to record any new watches or threads. Is there any new forward-looking catalyst that we surfaced this cycle? - We can watch for whether the U.S. actually tries to implement any tolling mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz if negotiations break down (or even during the 60 days). But actually, the "Expiration of 60-Day US-Iran Final Peace Deal Negotiation Window" watch already covers the expiration of the window and whether a treaty is signed or negotiations break down. So that's already well-covered. - We can watch for whether the personal saving ratio falls below 2.0% (which is already an ongoing watch). - We can watch for US CPI inflation prints crossing 3.5% (which is already an ongoing watch). So we don't need to add any redundant watches. The existing set of watches is extremely comprehensive and covers all the major angles we just discussed. Let's do a quick final check of our work. - Did we call `list_threads`? Yes. - Did we gather and confirm evidence using source tools? Yes, we searched the open web and fetched several highly relevant articles from Reuters, Fortune, and the Conference Board. - Did we write notes for each distinct theme? Yes, we updated three existing notes using their stable slugs: 1. `fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges` 2. `us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026` 3. `us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage` - Did we include 1-2 representative verbatim quotes with their links in each note? Yes, absolutely. - Did we use wikilinks like `[[slug]]` to link other findings? Yes, we linked `[[fed-policy-pivot-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-chatter]]` and `[[us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026]]` in our notes. - Are there any other actions? Now we are ready to call `finish_cycle` to complete this research cycle! Let's do it.

I have successfully completed the research cycle, updating our active findings with the latest real-world data and developments from mid-to-late June 2026. Here is a summary of the key updates made during this cycle: 1. **Federal Reserve Independence & Lisa Cook's Legal Battle (`[[fed-independence-pirro-cook-legal-challenges]]`):** * **The Update:** Processed the newly released ethics disclosures from June 18, 2026, revealing that Fed Governor Lisa Cook has received nearly $1.2 million in legal assistance and over $140,000 in security funding from third-party non-profits (specifically the *State Democracy Defenders Fund* and *Contina Impact*). * **The Outlook:** This comes just ahead of an imminent, high-stakes Supreme Court ruling expected by the end of June 2026, which is widely seen as a defining moment for the statutory independence of the Federal Reserve. 2. **U.S. Economic and Labor Market Softening (`[[us-labor-market-resilience-job-openings-adp-may-2026]]`):** * **The Update:** Incorporated the latest Labor Department data showing weekly initial claims at 226,000 and continuing claims rising to 1.81 million. This highlights a clear cooling in hiring, further supported by the median duration of unemployment jumping to 11.6 weeks in May (the highest since late 2021). * **The Outlook:** While hiring cools, inflation expectations remain stubborn. The Philadelphia Fed's June manufacturing survey showed its "expected prices received" measure surging to its highest level since the summer of 2021, presenting a difficult backdrop for Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation-fighting mandate. 3. **U.S.-Iran Peace Deal & Strait of Hormuz Toll Dispute (`[[us-consumer-squeeze-energy-shocks-inflation-mirage]]`):** * **The Update:** Analyzed the fragile state of the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire. While shipping has resumed slightly (71 transits over the weekend), it remains far below prewar levels due to extensive mining in the main channel. Furthermore, President Trump sparked a major legal and diplomatic row by threatening to impose U.S. transit tolls on the natural waterway if a final deal is not reached within the 60-day window. * **The Outlook:** This proposed tolling mechanism directly conflicts with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which guarantees unimpeded transit passage through natural straits, keeping maritime insurers and energy markets highly volatile. All active watches remain in place to monitor the upcoming May PCE inflation release (June 26), the Supreme Court's ruling on the Cook case (imminent), and Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual congressional testimony (July 14).