Cycle on Sep 29, 2026

I'll start by checking the open threads for this topic, then hunt for the freshest developments since the last cycle (which covered data through roughly Sept 27-28).

The thread list shows the key upcoming catalysts: the BEA PCE overhaul + August PCE tomorrow (Sept 30), September payrolls Friday (Oct 2), and the Warren/Warsh Oct 7 deadline. Now let me hunt for what's actually new in the last 24-48 hours.

Major developments surfacing: the 10-year spiked to a 19-year high above 5.27% overnight, oil pushed above $100/barrel after US-Iran talks hit a dead end, and the PCE/BEA revision lands tomorrow with consensus at +0.4% headline. Let me fetch the key sources to confirm the details.

Reuters confirms the bond repricing (10Y above 5.27%, 2-year nearing 5%, three more hikes priced by mid-2027) and Brent at $106.60 with no Middle East breakthrough. Now let me get the PCE preview details and check today's JOLTS release plus the energy/pump-price angle.

The Iran story is now clear: Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz reopening proposal Monday, oil spiked hard (Brent $107+, WTI +4.2%). Let me check the full note inventory so I reuse the right slugs, and look for today's JOLTS/consumer confidence prints and pump prices.

I have the full note inventory now. The oil/Iran note (`iran-war-hormuz-oil-united-nations-week`) ended with WTI at $91.96 on truce hopes — Monday's Trump rejection is a sharp reversal worth updating there. Let me confirm the Trump rejection details, the FedWatch odds, and check whether gasoline has crossed the $4.50 watch threshold.

The Fed picture is now well-sourced: FedWatch 72.5% for October, 94.5% for a hike by Dec 9, plus new hawkish FedSpeak (Cook, Hammack, Williams). Two quick checks remain: whether gasoline crossed the $4.50 watch threshold, and the shaky auction detail.

I have everything I need — four confirmed updates from sources fetched this cycle. Writing the findings now, reusing the existing slugs for each subject.

The oil note saved; my second call went out empty by mistake. Writing the remaining three findings properly now.

All four findings are saved. Now logging the two watch check-ins — the Iran deal watch (negative turn, stays open) and the 10Y threshold watch (new cycle highs, ongoing).

Both watch check-ins are logged. The cycle's findings are complete — wrapping up.

Cycle complete. Here's what changed since the last update: **1. Iran deal collapses — oil re-spikes** (`iran-war-hormuz-oil-united-nations-week`) Friday's truce rally died when Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — "They overplayed their hand," he told Axios, while admitting "I am always thinking about" resuming strikes. WTI ripped +4.2% to ~$96, Brent topped $107-108. More talks are expected this week, but the geopolitical premium is back in crude right before the inflation data. Pump prices (diesel $6.53, gasoline ~$4.48) will re-accelerate if this holds. **2. Bond rout hits a 19-year high** (`us-10y-treasury-yield-5-percent-mortgage-rates`) The 10-year spiked above **5.27%** overnight — highest since 2007 — in the heaviest monthly selloff in two years. The 2-year is at the 5% threshold, pricing **three more Fed hikes by mid-2027**. 30-year mortgages are averaging above 7.0%, and El-Erian says yields aren't going back down. **3. October hike odds climb to 72.5%** (`fed-policy-pivot-kevin-warsh-rate-hike-chatter`) FedWatch now prices 94.5% odds of a hike by the Dec 9 meeting. Lisa Cook's Sept 28 speech was the notable new hawkish voice — she called the AI buildout and oil pass-through inflationary and said the labor market is "well positioned to handle an increase in rates." **4. Tomorrow's PCE is the first decider** (`federal-reserve-pce-inflation-methodology-overhaul`) August PCE lands 8:30am Wednesday with consensus at +0.4% headline / +0.3% core (~3.4% y/y — inflation moving *up*), stacked with the BEA's annual revision — the same data package in the Warren/Warsh political fight. A hot print locks October; a dovish historical revision is the wildcard. Payrolls Friday (forecast ~100K, softer than the 162K consensus entering the week) is the other side of the decision. Both active watches (Iran deal, 10Y threshold) were checked in and stay open.