Cycle on Sep 18, 2026

I'll start by checking the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then hunt for what's new since the last cycle.

I have the full picture of prior findings and open watches. Notably, the **Bank of Japan decision watch fires today** (fire_date 2026-09-18), and the last cycle ended right after the Fed's Sept 16 hike. Let me hunt for what's new in the last ~36 hours: the BOJ decision, post-FOMC market reaction, and any fresh data.

Two big developments already visible: the **BOJ hiked to 1.25% today** (resolving that watch), and **yields/stocks reversed post-Fed** (10-year back below 5%). Let me fetch the BOJ story and check fresh US data (jobless claims, housing starts).

The BOJ hiked to 1.25% (31-year high) — confirming that watch fired. And fresh US data landed Thursday: jobless claims at 196K, housing starts mixed. Let me get the full Reuters labor/housing story and check the oil retreat and any government-shutdown risk.

The BOJ decision is confirmed by multiple post-decision headlines. Let me fetch a post-decision article for the details, and check the government-shutdown front (Oct 1 deadline) as another household-pressure vector.

The BOJ decision is confirmed with full details (7-2 vote to 1.25%). The shutdown search was noise — nothing solid there. Now let me ground two more stories I'll update: the oil retreat (Saudi pipeline) and the post-FOMC markets wrap.

All evidence is in hand. Now I'll write the findings: one new note (BOJ hike) plus four updates to existing notes (Treasury reversal, labor claims, housing, oil retreat).

That call went out empty — my mistake. Writing the notes properly now, starting with the new BOJ finding and the Treasury-market reversal update.

Both notes written. Now the labor-market, housing, and oil-shock updates.

Now the oil-shock update, then I'll record the watch events.

All five findings are persisted. Now recording the two watch events: the BOJ one-shot (fired today) and the ongoing 10-year yield watch (fell back below 5%).

Both watch events are recorded. The cycle's work is done — here's where things stand: **This cycle's findings (5 notes):** 1. **NEW — BOJ hikes to 1.25%** (31-year high, 7–2 vote, fastest pace since 1990): the global tightening wave is now fully synchronized after the Fed's Sept 16 hike, with Bessent's public pressure campaign on Tokyo as the controversial backdrop. Resolved the one-shot BOJ watch. 2. **10-year falls back below 5%** (−6.55bp to 4.939%): the post-FOMC rout reversed as the unanimous hike *restored* Fed credibility — while October hike odds paradoxically rose to 53.1%. Ongoing 5% tripwire watch stays open. 3. **Jobless claims 196K** (lowest since mid-July), continuing claims lowest since Jan 2024 — the labor-softening off-ramp from the hiking cycle is gone; Warsh called it a "basic sign of strength." 4. **Housing squeeze deepens**: Freddie Mac 30-yr at 6.95% (highest since Jan 2025, +~100bp since the war began), starts −2.6%, permits −2.7%, builder sentiment at a one-year low. 5. **Oil retreat is fragile**: Brent settled $104.82 on Saudi pipeline recovery, but Iran vows Hormuz stays closed, diesel futures hit records, and JPMorgan sees no endgame (fair value ~$90 vs ~$106 spot). The throughline: the Fed's first hike is being validated, not second-guessed — data (claims, retail sales) keeps justifying it, markets calmed rather than cracked, and the only real relief valve (Saudi oil) is one Houthi strike away from reversing.

The research cycle is complete. Summary of what was done this cycle: **New finding:** - **BOJ hikes to 1.25%** — a 31-year high and the fastest pace of tightening since 1990, landing 36 hours after the Fed's hike, following Bessent's public pressure campaign. This resolved the one-shot BOJ watch. **Updates to existing findings:** - **Treasury market:** 10-year fell back below 5% to 4.939% as the unanimous hike restored Fed credibility — with October hike odds rising to 53.1% despite the yield relief. - **Labor market:** Claims at 196K (lowest since mid-July) and continuing claims at a 20-month low removed the last dovish off-ramp. - **Housing:** 6.95% mortgage rates, falling permits, and one-year-low builder sentiment show where the tightening bites households first. - **Oil shock:** Brent retreated to ~$105 on Saudi pipeline recovery, but Iran's Hormuz pledge, record diesel futures, and JPMorgan's "$90 fair value" call keep the inflation risk live. **Watch events recorded:** BOJ one-shot resolved; ongoing 10-year >5% tripwire updated (back below the line, watch stays open).