Briefing history

The inflation shock went vertical this week: Brent settled at $113.17 — the highest close since May 4 — while September PPI printed…

The two big stories of the week are both about relief failing: the US-Russia diesel deal collapsed under basic supply arithmetic —…

The December hike is now unanimous — all 100 economists in the Reuters poll expect it — while housing became the first sector to…

The war premium hit a new milestone: Brent broke $110 intraday Monday on a reported — and denied — US strike on Iran's Konarak naval…

The December 15 hike went from ~65% priced to ~92% over the weekend, making a hold-then-hike sequence the market's base case even as the…

The October hike is now a near-done deal — odds collapsed from ~37% to ~15% in 48 hours as Jefferson, Williams, and a deliberately…

The last data before the Fed went into blackout arrived Thursday and it was a shock: September PPI jumped +1.3% m/m — the biggest monthly…

The September CPI printed hot on every line — 3.7% headline, 2.6% core, with the surprise broadening beyond energy into software (a…

The pre-CPI week closed with October hike odds bleeding down to ~19–22% and the consensus settling on 3.6% headline / 2.5% core — but…

The week before Wednesday's September CPI has been a one-way repricing: October hike odds fell from 55% to 22%, and the debate is now…

Isaias came and went without the refinery catastrophe the last digest feared — but the political economy of fuel prices is now fully in…

The October hike is dead — markets price just 16–18% for Oct 28, with ~75–85% on December — but the case for hiking didn't die with…

October's hike is effectively dead — Governor Waller and two colleagues all signaled a skip this week, pushing December to an 83.7% lock…

The Fed's minutes confirmed the December 8–9 meeting as the cycle's next move, but the week's real news was political: the long end set…

The squeeze is loosening at the edges and tightening at the core.

The pause is now official policy posture — Williams and Jefferson killed the October hike out loud, and pricing followed — but the…

The October hike is dead — CME FedWatch has it at 17%, Kalshi at 18%, down from nearly 70% a week ago — and the live question moved to…

The payrolls print settled the October question for good: +29K against a ~90K consensus, with July revised negative, killed the hike (odds…

The October hike is officially a coin-flip no more: Jefferson's patience speech collapsed odds to 28.2%, and the front end rallied hard off…

The Fed's October hike is now effectively dead: a BEA methodology revision cut core PCE more than expected (3.0% vs 3.3% consensus),…

The hawkish consensus cracked: John Williams said "no need for urgency" on Tuesday and October hike odds halved overnight, with December…

The diplomatic relief rally in oil died on Monday: Trump rejected Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan again, and this time the market believed him…

The week's headline is that the consumer side finally cracked into the open: diesel set an all-time record $6.53/gal and the pass-through…

The bond market took over as the story this week: the 10-year Treasury touched 5.225% intraday Friday — the highest since 2007 — driven…

The soft data finally cracked hard: final September consumer sentiment landed at 48.1, near the lowest reading in the survey's 74-year…

The bond market broke the 5% ceiling for good this week — the 30-year hit 5.48%, its highest since 2004, and Tuesday's one-day relief…

The UNGA watch resolved with a split verdict: Trump told the UN a deal comes "right after the election," but his envoys then held a "very…

The Fed's internal split went public three days after the Sept 16 hike: regional presidents openly contradicted Chair Kevin Warsh's claim…

The war premium survived the diplomatic set-piece: UNGA week opened with Hormuz still shut, Houthis striking Riyadh, and only the…

The fuel shock's marginal driver shifted downstream this week: crude consolidated near $105 while the squeeze moved into refining and…

The Fed's hike landed and the bond market stopped fighting it: the 10-year closed the week at 5.00% after touching 5.041% — its highest…

The day after the Fed's unanimous hike, the tightening wave went global and the markets decided they liked it: the BOJ followed 36 hours…

The two open questions from last cycle both got answers on September 16: the Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% — unanimous, hawkish, and…

The Fed decision arrived today, September 16, with markets pricing a near-certain 25bp hike — the first since July 2023 — while the…

The U.S.

The U.S.

The structural pressure on the US economy has intensified as stubborn core inflation pushed the benchmark ten-year yield past a critical…

A hotter-than-expected core inflation print has propelled September rate-hike expectations to near certainty, leaving the Federal Reserve…

A sharp escalation in the U.S.-Canada trade war has combined with historic energy shocks to intensify pressure on the domestic economy.

The economic pressure on U.S.

A rapid military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a severe secondary energy shock, driving oil prices toward triple digits…

The confrontation over U.S.

The struggle over economic policy has escalated into a direct political and geopolitical confrontation, with the administration threatening…

The narrative of economic cooling has been abruptly shattered by a massive late-summer jobs report, setting up a direct clash between the…

A blockbuster August jobs report has shattered the narrative of labor stagnation, immediately reviving pressure on the Federal Reserve and…

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive push toward a September rate hike has suddenly stalled as central bank leadership signals patience and…

A sharp escalation of direct military strikes in the Middle East has sent oil prices surging to five-week highs, compounding inflationary…

The U.S.

Stubborn service-sector inflation and a geopolitical energy shock are keeping intense pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider a…

Stubbornly elevated inflation is forcing a dramatic shift in federal economic policy, marked by the Federal Reserve's abandonment of…

Bipartisan momentum is building behind universal savings accounts even as the federal government prepares a major statistical overhaul of…

The Federal Reserve is abruptly abandoning its era of market hand-holding just as hot inflation data forces investors to brace for a…

The Federal Reserve is facing intense internal pressure to maintain a restrictive policy stance as a hawkish chorus of regional presidents…

The Federal Reserve faces a dual-front crisis of sticky inflation and escalating political interference as hot economic data upends…

The battle over U.S.

A severe geopolitical escalation in the Middle East has pushed retail gasoline prices to historic seasonal highs, intensifying the…

The collision between aggressive policy interventions and market forces has intensified across the U.S.

The collision between aggressive executive policies and market realities has reached a fever pitch.

The struggle over U.S.

The executive branch has launched a coordinated campaign against the Federal Reserve's autonomy, pairing a formal "for-cause" removal…

The U.S.

The U.S.

The expiration of the U.S.-Iran maritime truce has triggered a sharp escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, marked by direct threats to…

The geopolitical and regulatory landscapes are tightening as the U.S.

The economic landscape is shifting rapidly as a surprise contraction of 23,000 jobs alongside cooling consumer prices pivots the Federal…

A sharp contraction in July retail sales alongside a plunge in consumer confidence has amplified fears of an economic slowdown, even as…

The Federal Reserve's policy path is shifting rapidly as mild July inflation data and a surprise payroll drop cool expectations for a…

The Federal Reserve's path is shifting as a tame August inflation report, combined with July's weak jobs data, cools expectations for a…

The economic landscape has shifted rapidly as a surprise contraction in July employment splits expectations for the Federal Reserve's next…

A sudden contraction in the July labor market has dramatically cooled expectations for a September interest rate hike, shifting the…

A sharp contraction in the July labor market has abruptly cooled expectations for a September interest rate hike, even as the Federal…

While the Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure from a tightening geopolitical energy choke point in the Middle East, the White House has…

The narrative of a resilient U.S.

A sudden reversal in Strait of Hormuz reopening optimism has combined with negative real wage growth to intensify the cost-of-living…

A severe slowdown in private hiring has collided with a robust manufacturing expansion, leaving the Federal Reserve caught in a policy vise…

A sudden diplomatic breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices tumbling, defusing a major energy-driven inflation threat and…

The illusion of a orderly economic transition is fracturing as a massive manufacturing surge and geopolitical supply shocks fuel an open…

The illusion of a stable economic transition is giving way to a highly bifurcated reality.

The fragile economic equilibrium has been shattered by a dual shock: a violent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz has reignited energy…

The Federal Reserve is facing an internal mutiny as policymakers split over which inflation metrics should guide interest rates, even as…

The illusion of a cooling U.S.

The Federal Reserve has fractured internally as three regional presidents dissented from the decision to hold interest rates steady,…

The economic landscape has shifted rapidly as concrete July data reveals a deepening squeeze on American households, marked by gasoline…

The July policy meeting has become highly unpredictable as a deeply divided Federal Reserve confronts a stagnating labor market and a…

A sudden pause in the Persian Gulf conflict has temporarily eased energy market anxiety, but retail gasoline prices have still peaked at a…

The rapid expansion of universal savings accounts has pushed active registrations past a major milestone, prompting federal agencies to…

Geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have unleashed a dual energy and interest rate shock, driving national average gas prices…

Geopolitical energy shocks and a historically tight labor market are forcing a dramatic hawkish shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations,…

The U.S.

A sharp hawkish pivot on Wall Street has suddenly put interest rate hikes back on the table for the autumn of 2026, driven by persistent…

A dramatic cooling in June inflation data has temporarily halted the Federal Reserve's immediate rate-hike campaign, but this relief is…

While strong consumer spending has temporarily upgraded economic growth projections, a looming energy squeeze from the renewed blockade of…

The sudden collapse of the Middle East ceasefire and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have injected severe energy volatility…

The brief mid-summer reprieve in energy prices has evaporated with the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, forcing a hawkish pivot from…

The launch of the universal "Trump Accounts" savings initiative has seen a massive initial wave of 6.5 million enrollments, yet the program…

An unexpected drop in energy costs drove consecutive declines in both consumer and wholesale prices for June, temporarily taking an…

A surprise drop in June consumer prices has temporarily extinguished immediate July rate-hike fears, but the relief is overshadowed by a…

The fragile Middle East peace has collapsed as a reinstated naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz triggers an immediate 9.6% oil price…

A severe geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and a landmark statutory ban on a digital dollar have abruptly redrawn the economic and…

The Federal Reserve has warned of accelerating spring inflation driven by energy shocks and the artificial intelligence buildout, but the…