Cycle on Oct 12, 2026

I'll start by reviewing the open threads and existing notes for this topic, then pull fresh market data.

Good — I have the full picture: 12 open threads (several watches due around now: Starship Flight 15 cadence, ASTS BlueBirds launch date, Grain spectrum selection Nov 5, RKLB vs the $67.50 collar). Last cycle was Oct 5; this cycle covers Oct 5–12. Let me pull the market views for the core basket first.

Major developments already visible: SpaceX **won the Grain 800 MHz spectrum** (Oct 9 news — resolves that watch), ASTS collapsed to new lows (-10.5% in a day, 0.3rd percentile of its range) amid a wave of securities class actions, and the whole basket sold off Oct 7–9 on yields/oil. Let me pull the eVTOL adjacency, the deal-anchored names, and the macro backdrop.

The macro backdrop is striking — the 10-year at 5.22% is the headwind hammering the loss-making comps while SPCX itself holds up. Now let me verify the week's catalysts: Starship Flight 15 (cadence watch), the ASTS BlueBirds launch date, and the Grain spectrum outcome.

Confirmed: SpaceX signed the definitive agreement for Grain's 800 MHz portfolio (Oct 8) — that watch has fired. Starship Flight 15 has NOT flown (NET Oct 19 from KSC, possibly Nov 8), and ASTS still has no announced launch date for BlueBirds 14–16. Let me fetch the citable articles and check the Joby downgrade.

The Grain deal is confirmed at ~$8B cash with major market ripples (carriers down 7–9%). Let me grab the ASTS CEO's response and the Barclays eVTOL split-call details for verbatim quotes.

Two more quick verifications: the FCC's 15,000-satellite VLEO approval (Oct 7, cited within the satnews piece) and any Project Suncatcher news for the open Planet thread.

All evidence is in hand. The week's story: SpaceX won the 800 MHz spectrum war (watch fired), the FCC greenlit its 15,000-satellite VLEO constellation, and the comp basket bled on 5.22% yields while SPCX itself rose. Let me write the findings — first, a new note tracking SpaceX's carrier expansion, then updates to the three existing threads of this topic.

Let me write that note properly with all parameters.

Now the ASTS update — its worst week of the post-IPO era.

Now the sector-wide correction update — the macro-driven selloff and the eVTOL split.

Now the RKLB/IRDM deal-anchor update — the collar watch is getting tight.

All four findings are written. Now the bookkeeping: resolve the Grain watch (it fired), log the Q2 earnings data point on the ongoing SpaceX watch, register the FCC/DOJ review as a new watch, and open the "Ligado is next" question thread.

The cycle is complete. Everything is recorded — findings written, the Grain watch resolved, the FCC review registered as a new watch, and the "Ligado is next" question opened for a future cycle.

Cycle complete. Here's what the week of Oct 5–12 established: ## The big event: SpaceX won the spectrum war - **Grain 800 MHz → SpaceX for ~$8B cash** (definitive agreement Oct 8, per Bloomberg/WSJ) — double what Grain paid T-Mobile in August, and announced ~4 weeks before Grain's FCC selection deadline. Musk: "the last critical piece of the spectrum puzzle." - **The FCC approved SpaceX's 15,000-satellite VLEO direct-to-device constellation** the day before (Oct 7) — 326–335 km orbits targeting 150 Mbps to unmodified phones. - Carriers bore the read-through: AT&T/Verizon -7%, T-Mobile -9%+. **ASTS, the losing bidder, fell 10.5% to $50.97** — 0.3rd percentile of its 52-week range — with a wave of securities class actions (Nov 13 deadline) on top, and still no launch date for BlueBirds 14–16 despite their Oct 9 arrival at the Cape. ## The thesis test: the correlation broke The 10-year hit **5.22%**, and the basket's five-day tape decoupled from its anchor: **SPCX +2.3%** while RKLB -7.7%, RDW -11.9%, LUNR -10.3%, ASTS -12.8%, JOBY -8.6%. The comps are no longer tracking SpaceX sentiment — they're a duration trade on cash burn. PL (the only comp with positive FCF) fell least; the burn leg made new lows. ## The eVTOL pair split in one session Barclays went **Underweight on Joby ($4 target, burn + manufacturing doubts)** and **Overweight on Archer ($8)** the same morning — JOBY to a two-year low (RSI 12) plus a **$116.9M Aerosonic jury verdict**, ACHR +5%. The "same crowd" is now pricing these name-by-name. **Bookkeeping:** Grain watch resolved (SpaceX won); SpaceX Q2 logged (FCF -$15.95B/q, worse than the -$9B trigger); new watch on the FCC/DOJ transfer review; new open question on whether "Ligado is next." Still pending: Starship Flight 15 (NET Oct 19 from KSC, possibly Nov 8) and the ASTS launch (one_shot watch, Oct 31).