Cycle on Jun 8, 2026

I am starting the research cycle by listing the topic's open threads to see what questions or watches are currently registered for this topic. This will help guide our focus on the space economy, SpaceX's impending IPO, and the public comps.

I will call `market_view` for Rocket Lab (RKLB) to check its latest financial metrics, valuation, and market performance in the run-up to the SpaceX IPO.

I will now fetch the market views for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) to see how they are performing and what their balance sheets look like.

I will also call `market_view` for Intuitive Machines (LUNR).

I see some major events happening in the space sector. Intuitive Machines (LUNR) just filed/launched a $500M At-the-Market (ATM) equity offering program on June 3, 2026. This is a massive dilution signal for a company with a market cap of $6.35B and cash of $231.6M vs $426.4M in total debt. Let's also search for news about SpaceX's IPO schedule, Starlink economics, and public space comps' recent developments to see how the market is reacting. We are currently around June 8, 2026, and the SpaceX IPO is slated for (~June 12, 2026). I'll run a web search to collect recent details.

This is a wealth of fresh news. Let's fetch some of these crucial URLs, especially: 1. `https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/morningstar-spacex-ipo-target-price-nasdaq.html` or similar about Morningstar saying SpaceX is worth less than half of its $1.75T IPO target. 2. `https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/spacex-plans-raise-75-billion-ipo-135-per-share-source-says-2026-06-03/` about the pricing ($135 per share, $75B raise, $1.75T target). 3. `https://aswathdamodaran.substack.com/p/revisiting-the-spacex-valuation-a` (let's check if we can fetch Aswath Damodaran's substack or similar analysis). 4. `https://fortune.com/2026/06/06/spacex-ipo-stock-price-valuation/` about the Fortune article detailing that SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 on $18.7 billion revenue. Wait, does that include xAI's losses, or is it SpaceX itself? Let's verify. Let's fetch CNBC first.

This CNBC article provides incredibly concrete figures: - SpaceX's S-1 filed on May 20, 2026, targeting Nasdaq ticker `SPCX`. - SpaceX recorded a net loss in the latest quarter of $4.28 billion after losing $4.94 billion in 2025. - Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue in the latest quarter (69% of the total revenue). - The space business (launch) lost $619 million on an operating basis. - The AI unit (xAI, which is apparently consolidated or bundled within SpaceX according to the S-1, or SpaceX has a massive stake/unit in it) lost $2.5 billion in the latest quarter. - Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion (48% below private market valuation of $1.5 trillion, and far below the $1.75 trillion IPO target). - Key pricing details: SpaceX intends to set its IPO price at $135 per share, targeting a $75 billion raise and a $1.75 trillion valuation. - Let's search for more details on the other public comps: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Redwire (RDW), and maybe also eVTOLs like Joby (JOBY), Archer (ACHR). Let's see if we can find recent articles on how these comps are reacting or their financials. Let's do a search on their latest public-market movements, dilution, and launch updates.

Let's read `https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-intuitive-machines-stock-crashed-164718217.html` or the Motley Fool article about LUNR's crash and dilution. It mentions "For the second time in less than six months, Intuitive Machines is raising cash... Adding 14.7 million shares to the 160.5 million already outstanding..." wait, is that a different dilution deal or is it the $500M ATM? Let's check with `web_fetch` to see exactly what is written about LUNR's dilution and cash raise.

Alright, so the Motley Fool article is from June 3, 2026. LUNR was trading around $29.36 at that point, and the $500 million ATM program could result in roughly 9.1% dilution (expecting about 14.7 million shares to be sold if they raise the full $500M at current prices around $34/share or so - wait, the article mentions: "Adding 14.7 million shares to the 160.5 million already outstanding will result in 9.1% dilution... assuming Intuitive raises the full $500 million"). Wait, let's look at the market view for LUNR we retrieved earlier. It was as of June 3, 2026, where the price closed at $39.57. Let's search for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and its cash-burn/dilution, and its scheduled mid-June launch. Is there a launch scheduled for mid-June on a Falcon 9? Let's search.

Let's fetch `https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-may-use-ulas-vulcan/` and `https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260511685431/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Provides-Business-Update-and-First-Quarter-2026-Results` to learn more about ASTS's launch plans, its Block 2 BlueBird satellites, and its financials. Let's do a fetch for the BusinessWire release.

Ah, the fetch failed due to a timeout. Let's try fetching a different URL, like the SpaceNews article: `https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-may-use-ulas-vulcan/` or a Yahoo Finance article or simpler. Let's search again or fetch `https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/telecom/nasdaq-asts/ast-spacemobile/news/blue-origin-setback-tests-ast-spacemobile-launch-plans-and-i` to see what is happening with Blue Origin's setback and ASTS's launch plans. Let's do a search first to get more specific articles.

Let's fetch `https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-sees-new-glenn-setback-delaying-initial-commercial-service-into-2027/` to see how the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion affects ASTS's timeline. This is extremely important, as the New Glenn rocket exploded during testing in late May 2026! Let's search for this SpaceNews article first or fetch it. Let's do a search on SpaceNews for New Glenn setback and ASTS to get the exact URL.

I will fetch `https://spacenews.com/ast-spacemobile-sees-new-glenn-setback-delaying-initial-commercial-service-into-2027/` to understand how the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion affects ASTS's launch goals and timeline. This is a critical development for ASTS.

This is a massive piece of fundamental news: - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has had its initial commercial service delayed from late 2026 into the first half of 2027 (by 3-6 months) due to the Blue Origin launchpad explosion on May 28, 2026. - This comes after the loss of ASTS's BlueBird 7 satellite on a New Glenn launch on April 19, 2026 (wait, BlueBird 7 failed its launch on Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket!). - Despite these severe setbacks, ASTS's stock has surged on "SpaceX IPO hype". It's a classic case of a company "failing upwards" in terms of stock price, driven by sector momentum rather than execution. - Let's check ASTS's valuation from the `market_view` we did earlier: it is trading at a $36.33 billion market capitalization on just $84.9M TTM revenue (P/S ratio of 427.7x!). It lost $191.0 million in the latest quarter against only $14.7 million in revenue. This is an extreme valuation that intersects with severe launch execution risks. Let's do a web search for how this SpaceX IPO is structured and its consolidated financials. We saw in the CNBC article: - SpaceX's S-1 filed on May 20, 2026. - SpaceX lost $4.94 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in the latest quarter. - Starlink generated $3.26 billion in the latest quarter (69% of total revenue). - The space business (launch) lost $619 million on an operating basis. - The AI unit (xAI) lost $2.5 billion in the latest quarter. Wait, let's search for more details on this xAI integration in the SpaceX S-1. Is xAI actually consolidated into SpaceX's financials under the S-1? Or did SpaceX acquire xAI/is it a subsidiary? Let's check. This is fascinating. Let's do a search on SpaceX S-1 xAI.

This is incredible. Let's fetch the TechCrunch article: `https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/20/xai-burned-6-4b-last-year-spacexs-ipo-filing-shows-why-the-spending-is-far-from-over/` and the Barrons article: `https://www.barrons.com/articles/spacex-ipo-filing-musk-stock-ticker-74d9b0ca` to understand this financial package. This "SpaceX-xAI" combined entity and common control accounting is a critical theme. Let's fetch TechCrunch first.

This is a goldmine of data from the SpaceX S-1. Let's list the facts we've gathered: 1. **SpaceX and xAI Merger:** Elon Musk merged xAI (which previously acquired X/Twitter) with SpaceX in February 2026. The S-1 filing is for the combined entity SpaceX-xAI, targeting Nasdaq ticker `SPCX` around June 12, 2026. 2. **SpaceX/xAI Financials:** - **2025 Financials:** xAI lost $6.4 billion from operations on $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025. In 2024, xAI lost $1.56 billion on $2.62 billion in revenue. - **Q1 2026 Financials:** xAI had an operating loss of $2.47 billion on $818 million in revenue. - **SpaceX Overall / Net Losses:** SpaceX lost $4.94 billion overall in 2025, and recorded a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. - **Starlink Revenue:** Starlink generated $3.26 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, accounting for 69% of SpaceX's total revenue ($4.69 billion total in Q1). - **Launch Business (Space):** Space business lost $619 million on an operating basis in Q1 2026. - **AI Capital Expenditures:** AI segment capex climbed from $12.7 billion in 2025 to $7.7 billion in Q1 2026 (an annualized run rate of $30.8 billion!). - **Grok metrics:** 117M MAUs out of 550M total MAUs across X and Grok. 3. **The IPO Raise:** SpaceX is targeting a $75 billion raise at a $135 share price, valuing the company at $1.75 trillion. However, Morningstar says SpaceX is worth $780 billion (48% below target) and warns that xAI is a "material threat of value destruction." Furthermore, a Fortune article says "78% of the money is already spoken for." Let's search about this catch in the Fortune article. Let's do a search on Fortune's article about SpaceX's IPO raise being "already spoken for".

This is incredibly detailed. Let's fetch the Fortune article: `https://fortune.com/2026/05/28/spacex-elon-musk-ipo-money/` or look at the search summary about the 78% catch. The search summary says: "According to Fortune, around 78% of the IPO proceeds – roughly $62.8 billion – will be distributed among SpaceX insiders such as Musk and his close...". Let's fetch `https://fortune.com/2026/05/28/spacex-elon-musk-ipo-money/` to read the exact details. This is key to our understanding of the S-1 and where the money goes.

This is an incredible finding. Let's list the core details of SpaceX's S-1: - **Proceeds earmarking (the "78% catch"):** Out of the expected $80 billion in proceeds (now refined to $75 billion from the $135 share price/555.6 million shares offering), $62.8 billion (or 78%) is already spoken for by insiders, vendors, and prior commitments. This includes payments/repayments to third-parties, Valor Equity Partners, X Corp., xAI investors for debt repayment, and EchoStar for the "Spectrum Acquisition Closing." - **Remaining Proceeds for Operations:** Only $17.2 billion to $18 billion will actually be left to fund SpaceX's massive capital expenditure requirements, particularly for xAI's rapid compute expansion (annualized Q1 2026 run rate of $30.8 billion in AI segment capex). - **Dilution Risk:** To fund the remaining capex, SpaceX explicitly states in the S-1 that it will rely on post-IPO share issuance (dilution) and debt. Let's do a web search on other comps to see how they are performing, specifically: - Rocket Lab (RKLB): We saw in its market view that it has a $1.1B backlog, but operates with negative margins (operating margin of -22.4% and net income of $-45.0M in Q1 2026). It has $1.21B in cash, meaning its liquidity is strong compared to small-caps, but it has declined 23.3% over the past five days to $110.08. Why did RKLB decline 23.3%? Let's check. - Intuitive Machines (LUNR): It launched a $500M ATM on June 3, 2026, causing a 12.8% drop. It had a market cap of $6.35B (or about $4.7B as of the latest quote in the Motley Fool article). Let's check its cash flow: Q1 2026 operating cash flow was $-54.8M, capex was $9.9M (FCF of $-64.6M). It has $231.6M in cash but $426.4M in total debt. The $500M ATM is a massive capital raise to fund its lunar backlog and the Lanteris acquisition. - AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Market cap of $36.33B. TTM revenue of $84.9M (P/S ratio of 427.7x!). Q1 2026 revenue was $14.7M, operating loss was $149.4M, net loss was $191.0M. Operating cash flow was $-48.1M, capex was $261.6M (FCF of $-309.7M!). It has $3.03B in cash. This cash was raised through prior dilution, but the burn rate is extreme (capex of $261.6M in a single quarter!). Furthermore, its commercial service is now delayed into 2027 due to the Blue Origin rocket explosion on May 28, 2026. - Let's check what's happening with Redwire (RDW), Iridium (IRDM), Planet (PL), Joby (JOBY), and Archer (ACHR). Let's do a search or check their market views. Let's do a search on Redwire (RDW) and Planet (PL) first.

Let's fetch the Yahoo Finance / Motley Fool article on why RDW is dropping or the Seeking Alpha / MarketWise article on Redwire. Let's call `market_view` on Redwire (RDW) first so we have the latest financial metrics. This will give us durable numbers to cite.

This is an excellent set of data on Redwire (RDW): - RDW is trading at $20.58, representing a huge 138.2% gain over the past month. - It was downgraded by Jefferies from "Buy" to "Hold" on June 1, 2026, due to valuation concerns after its 223% year-to-date run-up, which has been driven by space sector momentum ahead of the SpaceX IPO. - Financially, Redwire has a $4.21B market cap on $371.0M TTM revenue (P/S ratio of 11.3x). Its operating margin is -71.8% and net income was $-76.5M in Q1 2026. It has $145.2M in cash against $208.9M in total debt. This is another example of a high-beta, loss-making name riding the SpaceX IPO hype. Let's check Planet Labs (PL) and other space comps. Let's do a search on Planet Labs (PL) and call `market_view` on PL. Let's also check Joby (JOBY) and Archer (ACHR) to see if they are also riding the wave. Let's do a search first.

I will pull the market view for Planet Labs (PL) to check its latest financial metrics and post-earnings performance.

I will search for Planet Labs (PL) fiscal Q1 earnings results (which were reported on June 4, 2026, as noted in the news) to verify why its stock fell after beating/missing results. This will complete our picture of the space small-caps.

The web search budget is spent. Let's process the information we have gathered and write our findings. ### Summary of what we found across the space economy: 1. **SpaceX S-1 Filing Details (The "78% Catch" & xAI Heavy Capex):** - SpaceX recently released its S-1 filing for the combined entity SpaceX-xAI (which merged in February 2026), targeting Nasdaq ticker `SPCX` around June 12, 2026, at a fixed price of $135 per share to raise $75 billion (a $1.75 trillion valuation). - *The Catch:* $62.8 billion (78%) of the $80 billion maximum expected proceeds is already spoken for (insiders, debt repayment, Echostar Spectrum Acquisition). This leaves less than $18 billion to fund the massive capital expenditure of xAI's infrastructure. - *Financials:* xAI lost $6.4 billion in 2025 on $3.2 billion in revenue, and $2.47 billion in Q1 2026. SpaceX as a whole recorded a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and $4.28 billion in Q1 2026. Starlink generated $3.26 billion in Q1 2026 (69% of SpaceX's $4.69 billion total revenue). - *Morningstar Bear Case:* Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion (48% below target) and warns xAI is a "material threat of value destruction" with its economic moat "indeterminate." 2. **Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Massive Dilution ATM Program:** - On June 3, 2026, LUNR launched a massive $500 million At-the-Market (ATM) equity offering program, causing its stock to fall 12.8%. - This represents about 9.1% dilution (adding ~14.7 million shares to the 160.5 million outstanding) and is its second major raise in less than six months (after a $175 million raise in February for the Lanteris acquisition). - LUNR has $231.6M in cash against $426.4M in total debt and an operating loss of $39.2M in Q1 2026. 3. **AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Launch Delays vs. Hype:** - ASTS has soared on SpaceX IPO hype, reaching a $36.33 billion market cap on just $84.9M TTM revenue (P/S of 427.7x). - *The Reality:* Its commercial service timeline has been delayed three to six months into the first half of 2027 due to the explosion of a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket during testing on May 28, 2026. This follows the loss of its BlueBird 7 satellite on a New Glenn launch on April 19, 2026. - ASTS is burning massive cash, reporting a quarterly net loss of $191.0 million on just $14.7 million in revenue in Q1 2026, with quarterly capital expenditures of $261.6 million. 4. **Redwire (RDW) Multiple Expansion & Downgrade:** - RDW surged 138.2% over the last month to $20.58, prompting a downgrade from Jefferies to "Hold" on June 1, 2026, due to valuation concerns following a 223% YTD rally. - Despite some operational wins, it continues to run at a loss with an operating margin of -71.8% and net income of $-76.5M in Q1 2026. 5. **Planet Labs (PL) Strong Earnings but Slipping:** - Planet Labs reported fiscal Q1 2027 results on June 4, 2026, beating estimates with record revenue of $94.2 million (up 42% YoY) and a strong $906 million backlog. - However, the stock slipped post-earnings, reflecting a broader cooling of space small-caps as investors realize the gap between speculative hype and actual profitability. Let's write these findings as notes. I will update the existing findings where applicable to refine the story. Let's look at the prior findings: - `public-space-comps-valuation-bubble-dilution-burn` - `asts-satellite-direct-to-cell-launch-failures` - `spacex-s1-filing-valuation-starlink-xai-finances` - `amazon-globalstar-acquisition-satellite-consolidation` I will update: 1. `spacex-s1-filing-valuation-starlink-xai-finances` to include the specific details of the roadshow, $135 fixed price, the "78% catch" where $62.8 billion is already spoken for, and the latest Morningstar valuation of $780 billion. 2. `asts-satellite-direct-to-cell-launch-failures` to include the Blue Origin New Glenn pad explosion on May 28, 2026, which delayed commercial service into H1 2027, and its massive $261.6M quarterly capex vs. $14.7M revenue in Q1 2026. 3. `public-space-comps-valuation-bubble-dilution-burn` to detail Intuitive Machines' (LUNR) $500M ATM dilution program on June 3, 2026, Redwire's (RDW) downgrade by Jefferies on June 1, 2026, and Planet Labs' (PL) Q1 earnings on June 4, 2026. Let's write the first note: `spacex-s1-filing-valuation-starlink-xai-finances`. I will structure it perfectly without frontmatter, with sources, and verbatim quotes. I will ensure every source is named and linked. Let's double-check the rules: - No YAML frontmatter. - First line is `# Title`. - Slug is passed as parameter. - Use wikilinks to link other notes like `[[asts-satellite-direct-to-cell-launch-failures]]`. - Cite the market views `/markets/...` where appropriate. Let's proceed with writing the notes. I will write them one by one. I will start with the updated SpaceX note.

Now I will write/update the second note: `asts-satellite-direct-to-cell-launch-failures`. I will focus on AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), detailing its extreme valuation ($36.33B market cap on $84.9M TTM revenue), its massive Q1 2026 cash burn ($261.6M capex vs $14.7M revenue), and its commercial service timeline delay into 2027 following the Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explosion on May 28, 2026. This is a massive piece of fundamental news that contrasts sharply with its stock's speculative surge.